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I think it is appropriate to post this here, it confirms that the threat from Apple competition is not viewed by Nokia execs with the same complacency as is being expressed on this forum.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,13...l?tk=nl_dnxnws |
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Full quote (which most of those articles are NOT providing): "I am not soft-spoken about our traditional competitors like Motorola. When we look ahead, we will be and are competing more and more against players like RIM and Apple. I am paranoid about all the competition and this paranoia is shared in our organization. It keeps us focused on execution and innovation." http://seekingalpha.com/article/5041...all-transcript Sounds to me like he's saying they're willing to take the threats from competitors more seriously than they might be realistically since it will drive them stronger to improve their products. Nice sentiment for an earnings call, but let's wait to see if they actually mean it. |
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Thanks for the elaboration on the Nokia position, it changes the perception of it quite a bit.
The Motorola strategy does make you wonder. |
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All companies should take their competitors seriously, regardless how little threat they are perceived to be.
Although being 'paranoid' about them - possibly too far. I worked for a company that was paranoid about the competition to a level that was excessive and damaging to progress. Hopefully they aren't that bad! |
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At least in the short term, I won't be considering a Touch for an IT. Without bluetooth it would be useless to me at least 50% of the time. And no GPS (built-in or add-on) is another nail in it's coffin...
Jeff |
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Thank you for that sober reply Andrew. I do agree fully with your final assessment, and apologize for my own occasional irrationality. :D
And Milhouse: again, it remains to be seen what the long term may bring. Apple's approach is like a blazing comet; Nokia's is like a steady freight train. Risk and reward can be found in either approach, in equal measure. To me success for any product that has any sort of competition comes down to, as I have preached numerous times, differentiation. I continue to believe that most consumers do not focus on common aspects between devices when they decide to buy-- those decisions are made on what sets a device apart from its competition. And the deciding factors are largely personal, too, wherein what induces me to buy product A may ironically turn you away toward product B. In that sense, all things considered, I would still prefer an N800 over an iPhone-- warts on all. And no, I don't say that as an employee of the competition but as a user who knows the iPhone can't do what I want. Apple's decision to open the API is indeed a good one IMO, and I applaud it. However, it must be noted that it is nowhere near the extent of openness the tablets enjoy. The question remains, then, how much of the potential for he tablets will go unrealized. Given that Nokia now says the company is on step 3 of a 5 step process toward a tablet in every hand, it looks like the freight train has not yet reached full steam. Let's see what the comet does in the meantime. ;) |
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I'd have thought success in the markets frequented by Nokia and Apple would be determined by sales, and not by an ephemeral notion such as differentiation. Nokia can and is a huge organisation, but unless their devices appeal to the mass market - which is unquestionably the case with Apple products - then Nokia will not achieve great success with NITs. Fact, freight train or not - you can't make people buy what they don't want.
Nokia are clearly taking their time to get it right, but by the time they achieve Step 5 of their plan the competition will have a user base in the tens of millions, with the ecosystem (applications and accessories) to cater for those users, and iPod (and/or iPhone) will become synonymous with "mobile internet web surfing" just as iPod has displaced Walkman for "audio on the move". "You want mobile internet?" "Buy an iPod" Most people won't even think twice or consider an alternative, the brand and marketing is _that_ strong and effective. Nokia faces an uphill struggle to compete for sales against Apple - just look at Microsoft and the Zune, is this going to be Nokia NITs in future? The Zune appeals to a few people, it differentiates itself from Apple products, but it doesn't come close to matching Apple sales. I know we're not comparing Apples with apples here, and that you firmly believe in the goodness of the open approach followed by Nokia (as do I) but with my shareholder hat on it's beholden on Nokia to make the Internet Tablets a sales success (which they are not, yet) and the slow, plodding approach only allows the competition to dominate a market that could have been Nokias. Will Nokia ever regain the ground they have already lost? I have my doubts. Having said that, I'm warming to the N810 and can see some appeal in it's design although the price is somewhat off putting, particularly when you factor in the additional licence cost for GPS routing. I think 2008 will be a very interesting year for Nokia NITs, Intel MIDs and above all Apple iPhone/Touch mkII. :D Progress needs to be made by Nokia in 2008 (step 4) and with luck Nokia can capitalise on the marketing blitz that will follow the release of the Intel MIDs, ensuring further success in 2009 (step 5). But Nokia and (perhaps even Intel MIDs) will always be of minority interest to the *GENERAL PUBLIC*, as I simply can't see Apple losing the plot with their iPhone/Touch devices in the near future, and a "tablet in every hand" will most likely remain a Nokia pipe dream. :) |
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Milhouse, agreed.
With the announcement that Apple shipped 1,119,000 iPhones in one quarter alone, we can just hope that Nokia continue to bankroll this project long enough to organically grow that sort of popularity and ecosystem which Apple has been nurturing for so long. 1.2m iPhones in one quarter. In one country. That's impressive by any stretch of the imagination. Mindboggingly impressive. Steve Jobs may be a perfectionist, he may have no dress sense, but - damn - at least one of those things makes him a damned good businessman. |
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Milhouse, I didn't say sales was determined by differentiation-- I said purchaser choice was. Of course, that choice does drive sales, but again, Apple and Nokia are moving at different rates here (both intentionally) so I still think predictions of success or failure are premature.
And contrary to your last point, I don't see the company with nearly 40% of the global cell phone market rolling over for Apple or any other company. ;) FYI, I started buying Nokia stock again (before I even hired on) at around $15 USD per share. It's now at around $37. I'm betting stockholders are happy... the tablets don't currently affect that valuation either way in any measureable amount. I doubt you can say that for any of the few SKUs in Apple's portfolio. :D |
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I'm well aware of that chart, CF. Quick question: what's the dividend comparison?
Anyway, Mil made a remark about Nokia's stockholders, and I simply rebutting that particular point. |
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I have no idea about stocks and finances. I was just bored ;)
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This discussion will become quite interesting once 3rd party developers start cranking out applications for the iPhone. Its likely we'll see VOIP, Multi-Protocol IM clients, Terminal Applications, all the things that make the "open" Internet Tablet system so appealing.
The problem I see in the coming year or two is this: If the developers flock to the iPhone/iTouch OSX platform, and all the polished 3rd party applications are exclusive to it... where does that leave the Internet Tablets? Now, I am aware this outcome depends solely on Apple's implementation of the SDK and approval process. But its likely we'll see all the goodies that make the IT unique show up on the iPlatform™ (zing!). |
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Ahh…,
Bloody Apple…, I’ve been a “Apple” hater ever since I first using a “Apple II” but now with Apple killing off all the other makers of MP3 players ( iRiver :/ ) there is little competition left. To top is all off, I just spent the last ~10 minutes playing with a itouch that some of are US staff brought over and I cound not completely hate it…., I just may have to fall on my sword and buy a icrap…… (p.s. I’m way to hungover to read all the post in this thread posted so far….) |
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Texrat, I have nothing but admiration for your unshakeable faith in Nokia! :) Nokia will remain strong and almost certainly unaffected by Apple in the mobile phone space (although I think it's fair to say Apple have taught Nokia several lessons in design and usability, hence the emergence of the S60 touchscreen). However, the Nokia Internet Tablet faces an uncertain future because, unlike the mobile phone market where Nokia dominates, Nokia is now having to challenge for dominance from a very weak position, and that position only looks likely to become weaker in future as more competitors with more adventurous and appealing consumer focused designs appear on the market (x86 vs. ARM is yet another potential hurdle for Nokia in the long run). The only options I see are a convergance of the internet tablets and mobile phones - can Maemo supplant Symbian as the premier smart phone platform? With the right accessories, an OMAP3 based NIT could replace the laptop AND mobile phone of many users, and a desktop dock could provide full desktop connectivity (high resolution video out, audio, keyboard, mouse, network etc.) but when removed from the dock it's a fully portable communication device with all data stored on the internet (via Ovi services). The ultimate low cost computer. :) The only trouble is, Apple and Intel can do this too, and probably will sooner than Nokia. |
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Neither Apple nor Intel have Nokia's world-reknown logistics system and breadth of trade customers in the phone space.
Nokia can afford to subsidize the tablet's development and grow the line slowly and steadily. I also don't see the position as weak. If the company felt the same as you, the N810 wouldn't be on its way. ;) |
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Apple may well find it easier to scale up to support their burgeoning phone business than Nokia find it to scale down to support the direct mass consumer market. As for Intel, they'll rely on their Taiwanese partners who already have multiple sales channels already in place in many countries (Asus etc.). Quote:
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Texrat - looks like we might both be wrong! Microsoft FTW! (according to Uncle Fester) ;)
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Its only in the us it did not get a strong hold.....that is because of the nature of the stupid carriers. And apple is nowhere near nokia in innovation. Mobile phones are where they are just because of nokia. In fact nokia came up with the idea of the wide screen touchscreen 7710 way back in 2004. It had pretty much everything the iphone had and more but it was bit sluggish. As it is nokia is known for its ruggedness, dependebility and call quality. I think it left the touch screen cause just because they were not as rugged as the regular phones and went with the non touch screen phones. That was a bad decision and now it has been awakened by apple. Now with the public announcement by nokia saying that they are going in full steam with apple... lets see if apple can hold on to nokia. |
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I see three types of device on my daily commute into London Bridge train station and around the City of London. I've listed them below in descending order of frequency along with my personal categorisation of the owners:
1. iPods, and I don't mean generic mp3 players, I mean genuine Apple iPods (owned by everyone below 50, male and female, postroom boy to CEO, universal appeal) 2. Blackberrys (owned/used by execs and middle management) 3. Smartphones inc. Win mobile devices (owned by 25-35 year old males in junior technical roles that don't warrant a Blackberry) I see Windows Mobile devices very rarely - Blackberrys probably outnumber them 10:1, or even more. iPods are everywhere, last night on my way home I had people to my left, right and in front of me simultaneously scrolling through tracks on their flipping iPods! Of course, I was probably the only person on the entire train with a Nokia Internet Tablet! :) Microsoft are in la-la land if they think they are the only company with "the werewithall" to dominate mobile computing. Perhaps the landscape is different in the US, but in the UK Microsoft are nowhere as RIM and their Blackberrys seem to have cleaned up. Perhaps Microsoft can stage a comeback in the Enterprise space but certainly I don't see how their devices can appeal to the ordinary consumer when their software is so crap - Pocket IE, anyone? RIM have the enterprise/push-email space sewn up, Apple have the consumer space pretty much to themselves... Microsoft won't disappear and will keep pluging away in the mobile computing space but so far they seem to be in decline. It seems that Microsoft face some of the same challenges that Nokia will face in the near future - how to gain ground on the incumbant mobile computing defacto market leaders (RIM and Apple). :) |
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Nokia's 770/N800/N810's strength is open source philosophy. They should focus on ease of application development, especially now that Apple is planning to release an SDK for the iPhone/iPod touch.
Maybe a Ruby-based environment would be a great start. Python is ready, but I think that's not enough. You might sometimes have an idea but don't want to spend a day installing scratchbox, reading tutorials, learning new frameworks and building packages. Application development should be a snap for developers and even non-developers. This way, users have freedom to decide what they use that piece of hardware to. That's the main difference with products like iPhone, where other companies decide for you. |
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But yeah, in general US citizens have a distorted view of Apple's market share. Globally it's miniscule. Even in the US computer market they just breached 8% and that's pretty sad given their alleged superiority and longtime presence. Even iPhones, despite their magnificent launch, take up less than 1% of the US phone market based on the last stats I saw. So they dominate in music players, and even then mainly in the US. That is the status of the much-vaunted Apple. Don't get me wrong: Apple does many things right and they have momentum and cool designs on their side. But how much of the consumer worship is based on them being new to certain segments, and how much can actually be sustained? THAT is the question yet to be answered. Once Sony owned the portable media player with the Walkman; Apple beat them at their own game. So who's to say Sandisk or some other challenger (even Microsoft??? :D) won't do the same to Apple? This "the company I like can beat up the company you like" banter is rather silly given the mercurial nature of the business. ;) |
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In my head, I picture this big web of manufacturers heading towards the same ultimate goal. Intel with MID's trying to size down computers into a pocketable Internet / Multimedia device. Apple with iPhones and iPods slowly growing into a pocket Internet / Multimedia device. Nokia with a pocket Internet / Multimedia device, which is under-developed but may reach its potential as a pocket Internet / Multimedia device. (lol!) The only one that seems to fall out of this web is Microsoft: Microsoft with Windows Mobile, trying to avoid being a pocket Internet / Multimedia device, so as to slow the pace down until they can implement their own vision of how communication and the internet should be. (Silverlight, MSN, Rich Client Applications and OS's) I imagine its to keep everyone tied into their suite of applications and OSes. Its possible they can pull this heresy off, due to their entrenchment in corporate environments. It is my hope that the first 3 are successful so as to prevent a proprietary Microsoft world. Where companies like Nokia or Apple has to beg to have Silverlight ported to their platform. |
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Tex, you're comparing Nokia and their phone sales (all of their phones sales, which includes smartphones and non-smartphones) with the phone market share gained by Apple (in 3 months, in 1 region) and suggesting that according to your figures Nokia is doing a better job than Apple. While that may or may not be true (different companies selling different products with different business models, I'm not sure they're directly comparable) what I'm trying to compare here is mobile computing internet-enabled devices and as far as I'm concerned the number of non-smartphones sold by Nokia is irrelevant (it runs into the hundreds of millions - but so what, they're just phones).
Comparing Apple and the iPhone with Nokia on a purely phone basis, once Apple go global with the iPhone I wouldn't be surprised to discover that Apple begin to shift about the same number of iPhones in a year as Nokia sell N-Series devices, which isn't a bad start and undeniably will cause some concern at Nokia HQ. However let's talk about mobile computing devices and not dumb phones or smart phones - this category covers Apple iPhone/Touch devices, Nokia Internet Tablets, Intel MIDs, Microsoft Windows Mobile PCs and even Archos thingamy bobs. Who is the daddy in this market? It's Apple - and they got there in the last 3 months, from a standing start! So let's be clear here, phones are not relevant, even though the iPhone has built-in cellular capability, it's a useful side feature to the main mobile computing device. When (normal non-geeky) people want to buy a mobile computing device, what will they buy? A Nokia NIT? Or an Apple iPod or iPhone? Only uber-geeks will lust after the NIT, or the latest N95 supersmartphone. My commute to and from work confirms this _every day_. In the mobile computing space, Nokia have an awful lot of ground to make up - not so much technically, although that is a concern, but more so winning the hearts and minds. We both know Nokia have no problems selling boatloads of dumb phones to people all over the world (well, apart from the USA...) but selling more complicated and more connected mobile devices such as the NIT became a lot more interesting and a lot harder for Nokia as soon as the iPhone (then Touch) appeared on the market. It's not about phones anymore, it's about mobile computing. Nokia know this, which is why they don't call their high-end phones "phones" any more. They're mobile computers. |
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Windows Mobile doesn't appeal to the general public at the consumer level because it's stuffy looking due to Microsoft having to keep the Enterprise users happy. Enterprise users on the other hand only really want mobile push email, and just as with the Internet, Microsoft didn't see that coming so now RIM dominate here. Plus, RIM devices are _really_ well designed for their target market, both physically and at the software level (I love the Pearl - the trackball is excellent). In order for Microsoft to win at the consumer level, they're going to have to drastically overhaul the look & feel of the Windows Mobile OS and add lots of eye candy, sex it up, make it far more appealing to the consumer in a world of Apple iPhone/Touches. Of course, this strategy won't go down so well in the Enterprise space, so maybe Microsoft will have to offer two versions of the OS - one for the consumer and another for the Enterprise (themes may not be sufficient). And then there's application backward compatability - breaking that with the introduction of a new look & feel is a big no-no in the land of Microsoft. I can't see Microsoft taking either option unless they really do have "the wherewithall" as Uncle Fester believes. And I'm still not sure how they can challenge RIM in the Enterprise... unless they just buy RIM. For cash. |
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Mil, I disagree. If people are going to make the grandiose statements they have concerning Apple's accomplishments, then I feel it's perfectly fair and legitimate to bring in the data that I have. On one specific point, you seem to be downplaying Nokia's smartphones, which have been increasingly gaining traction.
HOWEVER-- if any conversant wants to incorporate truly relevant context with the Apple trumpeting (as I have sought all along), then I'm right on board. Gladly. ;) EDIT: although I do find it amusing that you seem to be backpeddling now off of previous iPhone/N800 comparisons. :p Oh, and don't confuse your local observations with global reality... the way hardcore Apple fans have. :p :p |
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I'm not backpeddling on the iPhone/N800 comparisons, I've always compared them as mobile computing devices on which you can surf the web, that opinion hasn't changed. The iPhone and Touch are identical in this regard, even though the iPhone is also a phone - the phone feature is not relevant to me in the context of my comparison, just as Nokia having sold millions (billions) of phone-only dumb devices is not relevant to this discussion.
As far as I can see, the only real difference between the iPhone/Touch and the NITs is the philosophy of the respective manufacturers - (semi-)closed or (semi-)open, the NITs not being fully open until Nokia get their sh1t together with the OS, cut the corporate bullsh1t and shoot the lawyers. I appreciate Nokia smartphones sell well (though nowhere near as well as their dumb phones), their enterprise models are very nice and the N95 is very popular (I'll be getting the 8GB version when it appears!) but I'm not sure I really see these as mobile computing devices in the same vein as the NITs or iPhone/Touch, perhaps because the screens are too small or they lack the required connectivity? The Nokia Smartphones seem to be phones first and foremost, with all other functions secondary. Perhaps Apple did a very clever thing with the iPhone by avoiding the addition of number keypad as they essentially delivered a mobile computing device that, oh yeah, it's a phone too. Anyway, we can debate Nokias past glories selling zillions of dumb phones all day, or compare how many PowerPC's Apple have sold and how many Nokia haven't. I'm not an Apple fanboi, I don't own any Apple product except a now dead 3G iPod but what I do see, with my own eyes, is Apple mobile products in use all around me every day, in the real world being used by real, normal, people of all ages and sexes. The last time I saw a Nokia high-end smartphone was 3 months ago (N95 v1, in Plum, England vs. France rugby at Twickenham) and I honestly couldn't tell you the last time I saw someone other than myself with a Nokia Internet Tablet! Apple have real mind share when it comes to their mobile devices, and it's this observation I find interesting. |
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Fair enough. In some areas we agree, in others we'll have to agree to disagree (I see the phone aspect as EXTREMLY relevant). That said, I'd rather do the back-and-forth on this subject with you than just about anyone else who's chimed in. At least you don't seem to suffer from Apple Fever. ;)
And truth be told, it's very possible that Apple and Nokia will BOTH eventually wind up successful with the products in question. Remember, Apple's definition of success per device may be (and is apparently) very, very different from Nokia's... and both subject to change at an executive's whim. :D |
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Obviously the NITs have achieved a degree of success but then anything can be successful if the goal is set low enough. With your crystal ball in front of you, how many NITs do you think Nokia will be looking to sell in order to declare the "Step 4" NIT (possible release date mid-to-late 2008?) a success? And the Step 5 (mid to late 2009?) also. Bear in mind I know the original N95 shifted 1.5m units globally in 3 months following initial release, which puts "success" for Nokia in perspective! |
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One major difference in nokia's and apple's products are:
Nokia always tries to put the maximum no. of functions on its devices. Take any device made by nokia it stretches the functionality way above what it can do. But apple believes in doing what ever little it does the best. Well my personal preference is that i would take the additional functionality for looks any day. Yeah some times you get errors like too many applications are open or internal error web closed.....but the options are vast. With a little patience you get many more things done.... unlike apple is all about eye candy and limited functionality which i admit it does well. As far as people like us are concerned .... the people who read tech news and read tech forums i believe more functionality comes before eyecandy. Yeah i agree it is not the same for the major part of the remaining population whose interest are in other areas.... but it is rather sad to hear a techie person falling for the good looks rather then funcionlaity |
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Nokia can keep selling NITs with no real eye candy and call it a success because they only ever intended to sell 5000, but what I'd REALLY like to see happen is for Nokia to add the eye candy AND retain the extensible functionality we all want as geeks - I don't see the two as being mutually exclusive - and go on to sell millions of the little blighters! Apple don't consider eye candy a barrier to extensibility, hence the imminent release of the iPhone/Touch SDK, neither should Nokia (I'm sure they don't, either - it just takes time to develop, Diablo/OS2009 perhaps?) Nokia will never achieve a run away (ie. mass consumer) success with NITs without the eye candy and a flair for design, that's an indisputable fact now as far as I'm concerned. The bar has been raised and Nokia have to meet or exceed it - and if that means "copying" features from other devices that's all fine with me, provided it adds value. :) I truly want Nokia NITs to be in the same position as Apple and their mobile computing devices (ie. mind share, demand, sales, eco system, you name it), and lets face it Apple achieved all of that with inspired design and by giving people what they want. :D |
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Yeah i want nokia to beat the crap out of apple. I just hate apple not for its products but its attitude. Yeah i have to agree that nokia is really doing bad in the US atleast reagarding advertisement. Just one simple ad during the weekend football game can change the no. of n800's sold. Apple has been able to do this and that is why they are largely popular. I believe if nokia advertised as much as apple then the no. of n800's sold would have been a lot lot more. I believe they want to make the platform more stable. And they are making the tablets more mainstream this can be deduced by the fact that the maemo platform has been induced into a larger department(i think forum nokia). May be the 4th and 5th iiterations would me considered on par with the other N series phones. P.s Since my 2 year stay in the US i never saw one NOkia ad.... not even a phone. I dont understand how NOkia is going to compete with apple if they dont advertise??? |
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Apple have reinvented the advert and turned it into a news story... :( |
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One problem for Nokia here is that Apple has been perceived as sexy for some time in the US-- Nokia has not. Apple intentionally cultivated that image, Nokia has not cared for it. That will be hard to change.
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Very very less. In my university i was the only one and i coerced two of my friend to buy them. Just imagine how many n800's nokia could sell just with a simple advertisement on tv?? I bet it is going to be equal in number with the iphone ..... Just the same ad which comes packed with tne n800 during a football game. That would lift sales by a long long way. I wonder why they dont do it?? seriously!! |
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Sachin, Nokia has made it very clear they are intentionally moving slow on this platform. Offhand I suppose it's to minimize risk. Regardless, that's the strategy, it's by design, and time will tell if Nokia was wrong or right...
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I think in the last 2-3 years however Nokia have taken their eye off the ball in terms of hardware design, favouring function over form, and are only recently getting back into the game. I read somewhere they had recognised this themselves and were creating or investing more in their design studios (can't find the link now). |
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Yes, you're correct, but it's a lot easier to create an image than recreate it...
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