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-   -   Let's talk Nokia stock! (https://talk.maemo.org/showthread.php?t=56370)

daperl 2012-07-12 20:05
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Android and iOS are like two sharks having a tug-of-war feeding frenzy on RIM's carcass.

specc 2012-07-13 01:34
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 1236626)
That's a reasonable question. I bought a lot but at a low enough price I can write it off without crying. Much.

I've lost far more on energy, pharmaceutical and future tech. Thank you, Old Money, for your continued market manipulation and resistance to change!

As for Nokia, let me share a little story. I may have shared before; sorry for any redundance.

In 2002 I was let go from a great job and walked off with over $2000 from my 401k. I dumped it into an IRA and started considering where to invest. We were all still reeling from the 2000 dotcom bust and it had rippled far, wide and deep into tech stocks of all kinds.

Corning glass (GLW) was really beaten down. I saw them at around $1.90 and my interest was piqued. I knew they held significant patents in fiber and exotic glass applications (Gorilla glass, anyone?). I knew the slump would not last forever, and sooner or later fiber to the home was going to happen. So I bought several hundred dollars worth. My gut instinct said to get more but like a good investor I built a balanced portfolio.

By 2008 GLW was over $25 and I cashed in about 90% of my holdings. Cha-CHING!

Then the market took another dump and my other stocks made up for it. And then some.

(The funny part of this story is that my stepfather had 2 million $ to invest in 2003 and I told him to sink a ton into GLW. Of course he ignored me.)

Now here's NOK sitting at that same seductive price point. So I look at it objectively and yes, I see some patents, and yes, I see some cool stuff in the pipeline-- but I'm missing that gut feeling that says NOK is the same sleeper now that GLW was then. Too much has changed. And outside of their Nokia Seimens Networks venture, they're at the wrong end of the business.

If Nokia's prospects don't improve dramatically by the end of this year, then IMO every long holder-- self included-- is screwed. Period.

(PS: I started buying back into GLW at around $8 a share)
I think the reason you feel that way is because you don't really believe WP8 will make it in a market over saturated with iOS and Android. That, and the hopes you have for Jolla.

You may be right. I believe Nokia has hit bottom now. It will lurk there for a while, then WP8 PureView will come and Nokia will start going up along with WP market share. Speculative investors will stay off because they can put their money in other stuff that may produce larger profit at smaller risk. Sensible investors investors will also stay off due to the risk alone, but also due to the fact that Nokia is too large, it still needs to shrink more. It will be a slow walk, but Nokia will make it.

To invest in Nokia now (as an investment), you really have to be sentimental. When we see how WP PureView does it, it will become much clearer.

Jolla is vaporware atm. There are no hard facts that points to anything really. The lack of ecosystem does not look good. Smartphones ARE all about ecosystems, there is no question about that.

gerbick 2012-07-13 01:42
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
WP7 has an ecosystem.

It's not doing that well.

Nokia had an ecosystem.

They were doing sorta well, declining, but better than now before WP7.

Ecosystems are of no use unless they bring the users to the table. That's not happening so far it seems.

daperl 2012-07-13 01:43
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Not Dead Yet: 4 Wretched Companies That Could Make You Rich

Quote:
Nokia (NOK)
Share price decline (2012): -60.57%
Low point (2012): Announces layoffs of 10,000 workers as company market cap falls lower than Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth.
Contrary wisdom: “Nokia is not the company it once was, and it will indeed need to drastically alter the way it operates if it wants to survive, but after digging deeper, I’d have to say this lame duck is worth a lot more than Wall Street is giving it credit for.” — The Motley Fool, July 10, 2012
Odds of Apple-like rebirth: 40-1

Rauha 2012-07-13 01:49
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
This article lists value of Nokia's assets pretty well.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...x#.T_99e5FE7LI

"Based on my valuation metrics, adding Nokia's cash, patents, tangible assets, and inventory, and assuming a breakup of the company into three separate divisions, Nokia is worth $13.9 billion, or $3.75 per share -- just more than double its closing price yesterday of $1.84. If Nokia's patent portfolio sells for as much as Nortel's, you can boost that figure to $4.42. "

Crazy.

lma 2012-07-13 02:44
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Cash is cash, though at the rate they're burning through it perhaps not for long. The rest is worthless until/unless a buyer makes an offer. Patents may be worth something, but inventory!? What idiot would want to buy their unsold Lumias at any price?

gerbick 2012-07-13 03:25
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lma (Post 1236855)
What idiot would want to buy their unsold Lumias at any price?
My mother needs a simplified smartphone. Might go WP7 for her after all.

lma 2012-07-13 09:29
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Didn't mean that, sorry. Presumably what he meant was a bulk liquidation of unsold stock. Because if we're talking about an HP-style, retail, fire sale, well, they already tried that and almost no one fell for it.

(Incidentally, an HP phone might not be too bad a choice for your mother either)

bergie 2012-07-13 10:32
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluefoot (Post 1236699)
This http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/...or-smartphones consumer survery indicated 0.3% marketshare for Nokia's Lumia range, of the US smartphone market, in Q2 '12. That's 1/3rd of Symbian's marketshare in the US ...
According to Wikipedia, US has 327M cellphone subscribers. Nielsen says about 55% of those use smartphones, and of those 0.3% have Lumias. That would mean slightly more than half million Lumias sold in US by end of Q2.

...unless I miscalculated something, of course. It sounds like a suspiciously low number.

lma 2012-07-13 10:46
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Or Nielsen did ;-)

It's interesting to note that in their stats Nokia is the WP7 vendor with the fewer sales though. What does it say that Samsung is kicking their behinds even in the Windows market? Or that webOS sold twice as many units nearly a year after being declared dead?


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