maemo.org - Talk - 100 million reasons to use Skype

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Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

One good thing about lemmings -- they don't have to worry about dying alone :)

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

Most social creatures don't die alone.

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

"100 million reasons to use Skype"

"XXX million reasons to like war"

War is good because XXX million people voted president butch and he likes war (i have to guess).

Another possibility would be that sometimes people get dragged into something they later regret.

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

Quote:

Originally Posted by RogerS (Post 57742)

Hm-m. I don't think we're on the same page here.

The transcript of that talk includes this:

In almost any comparison you can think of, if there are two competing technologies, one of which has visible benefits from network effects, and the other of which doesn't, the one with the visible benefits from network effects is the one that's going to win. This is not inherently evil; it's also not inherently good. It does have unambiguous benefits. The network effect provides the payoff which helps induce us as a society to make choices when we need to.

If Skype has 20 times as many users as Google Talk or Gizmo, it's way more than 20 times as useful to, um, use it. I can't think of any economic analysis that indicates rationale choice of benefits is lemming-like.

Perhaps you're mistaking me for one of those guys who camped out for 24 hours in order to buy an iPhone and two-year AT&T contract. :rolleyes:

RogerS, IMHO you're oversimplifying things here. You assume that there is one single criterion when you make a choice between technologies like SIP, Jabber/Jingle or Skype (with Skype being more of a business model than a technology). This is wrong. From a purely economic point of view, what could you try to check before registering?

Cost (monthly? per call? how much?)
Features (Call in? Landlines? Mobiles?)
Available in your country? (Like: Do I get a *local* number for call-in?)
Customer service?
"Network effect" (what you say is important: how many existing contacts do I reach?)
Reliability?
Security?
Compatibility with existing infrastructure?
Choice? (Can you keep the technology but switch the provider?)

These are only a few that come to my mind, there are probably more. The network effect is only one of them.

When I personally think of some soon-to-be Skype-users as lemmings its because I cant help the feeling they never even think of any of those economic, rational points. There's one single criterion for them: If all the others have it, it must be good. Period. They don't know the alternatives nor do they care to learn. They don't really know if any of their friends uses Skype or anything else - they tend to check this afterwards. All they have to base their decisions on is that Skype happens to be in the media so often and everyone talks about it.

(Of course, some make they choice considering most of the points given above and maybe even more; if they choose Skype then, there's no reason calling them lemmings :D )

Another thing that comes into play here and that cannot be measured on an economic scale is the moral aspect. People want to be good. They separate waste, they donate, they help young mothers with strollers climb the stairs... yes, they do. Some of us realize that proprietary technologies like Skype (Flash, *.doc-Files, ...) are as bad as pollution and simply refuse to support them for this one reason, even if it might contradict their own economic interests. There are people who refuse to share MP3 files and insist on OGG vorbis instead. And there are those who refuse to register with Skype and insist the other person registers with a SIP or jabber/Jingle based account.

Putting all this together, I think the "network effect" is simply overestimated. For the lemmings, its not the network that counts but Skypes PR in the media. And for all the ohers, there's so many things to consider that the network effect is just one of many.

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

Careful with the rank assumptions about other users, Benny. ;)

And even if your speculation is correct, so what? So there are people who buy because a friend does... and? This is nothing new. Do they represent the majority? Who knows? Who cares!

What I find interesting in your rebuttal benny is that you want to discredit Roger's definition of the (technical) network effect, using as your rationale a social network effect. Hey, at the end of the day, a network is a network is a network. ;)

Again, the rebuttals to Roger's argument are, in my estimation, going far afield of where he intended. It's a VOIP client, folks. It enjoys a lot of users. The N800 can now jack into that group. And the problem is... what?

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

Texrat, I try not to make assumptions. I write down what I experience around me with people I know. (Sure, there's always things you mostly interpret, like motives...)

Speaking about interpretation: When I read the article I understood the "network effect" was primarily a social effect, having technical consequences. What I found most interesting was the following part:

Quote:

Now, if network effects are the best predictor, then we must infer that the people who actually are responsible for making a good decision are the early adopters. In IT, that means you. You have a responsibility to judge what matters not by network effects but by technical merit. This is a special case of the Categorical Imperative of Immanuel Kant, [...] which your mother may have expressed more colloquially as, “What would the world be like if everyone did that?”

This last sentence, for me, is the basic issue.

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

I still don't see any problem.

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

@Tex:

Lucky you :D

One day we'll meet IRL and I'll explain to you in detail all thats bad and evil in this world. Sounds good to you? ;)

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

No thanks. I'm struggling to become Mary Poppins and don't need the disteractions. :p

Re: 100 million reasons to use Skype

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 57799)

Actually, it appears that you did. I just responded to your own words about a product that had little that was noteworthy.

I guess I wasn't clear. When I was refering to "product" I was refering to Skype since that was the subject of the "100 million users" not the N800. I would think that Nokia would be very happy to have 100 million N800 users :]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 57799)

You're taking that way, way too literally. It was obviously meant as a figure of speech, not to be deconstructed into a logical fallacy. It's hyperbole, but harmless.

I don't dispute the number 100 million ... there are undoubtedly that many registered usernames on their books. But for the sake of a review, it is marketese ... sounds great but meaningless.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 57799)

As for the invocation of Metcalfe's Law, consider that Skype has ADDED to the connection possibilities. Their network restrictions take nothing away from that. So in addition to the number of Gizmo and Googletalk users, we just added another 100 million more potential N800 customers (taking the expression literally for sake of this point).

I missed the press release where Skype is working to actively bridge the gap between its network and other networks rather than its previous history of isolating its network. I know that Gizmo and Googletalk are actively bridging their networks. Not very quickly but at least they have stated the intention to do so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 57799)

And if you're one day out of their network, so what? Your contacts don't suddenly die. You utilize a competing means of reaching them.

Which competing client can connect to a user on the Skype network?

I know that everyone can switch to something else but have you ever tried to get someone to switch to something new and unknown (and even possibly better) after they have gotten used to something? It is not easy. There is a great deal of inertia to overcome. It is best to have them not lock themselves into a service where they have no service provider alternatives later.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 57799)

I'm not sure why you're getting that worked up anyway... :confused:

I am not worked up ... it is difficult to read body language or tone in a written message. In fact, I am just trying to inject a bit of unemotional logic into the Skype hype to try to convince people to practice a bit of critical reasoning before jumping into that walled garden when there are equal or better alternatives for the N800 that have existed for a while now that don't involve hedges.