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Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crashdamage (Post 349696)

Don't forget - heavily subsidizing the iPhone has put a world of hurt in AT&T profits. Not the windfall for them you might think. Profit margins on voice or data in the US (after network build-out + maintainence costs) really aren't so hot. Text message charges are where the easy money is now.

As long as we're all playing Project Black guessing games, I'll throw in mine...nothing new, just my opinion on what will happen...

There's not a merger with Sprint coming. I think T-Mo US has decided it's easier and cheaper to grow by nabbing other carrier's users with better deals and cool phones than to take on a sure-to-be messy and very expensive merger with that friggin' disaster called Sprint. The considerable bandwidth controlled by Sprint/Nextel is tempting, but not that tempting. T-Mo already controls enough bandwidth they pass on Sprint and their semi-satisfied, hard-to-absorb customers.

That said, T-Mo may have made a deal with Clearwire to help build some LTE infrastructure for them in the future. WiMax is a dead end, and Clearwire surely knows it by now. And, what little WiMax Clearwire has built already is easily converted to LTE. Note that Clearwire's WiMax partner Sprint is advertising 4G on TV, but no mention of WiMax.

As for Sprint...well, Sprint is a drowning man grasping at WiMax straws to try and stay relevant, to have something to advertise that sounds like progress. I live in Sprint's hometown, and they've done zero, nada, nothing to even plan for WiMax here. Sprint has neither the money nor the expertise. It will not be built.

To nab those new customers, T-Mo will offer a $50-for-all plan, that seems fairly certain, but it probably will not include 'full' smartphone-type 3G. Will be a little extra charge for that to help pay for infrastructure costs. Some other new plans too, of course.

But I think T-Mo US will break European-type pricing in the US market, where you get a cheaper monthly rate for using an unlocked phone or buying one from T-Mo at retail instead of financing it through a subsidy. Since I have a N900 on order from Nokia USA, I'm really pulling for that to happen.

Very good! http://www.clicksmilies.com/auswahl/ernaehrung004.gif

Quote:

Originally Posted by You

But I think T-Mo US will break European-type pricing in the US market, where you get a cheaper monthly rate for using an unlocked phone or buying one from T-Mo at retail instead of financing it through a subsidy. Since I have a N900 on order from Nokia USA, I'm really pulling for that to happen.

I too think this last bit^ will be the case and may very well be the game changer they speak of.

We may have seen in the past how a balance of things like "Churn rate", "ARPU", and handset introduction and customer upgrade schedules could put pressure on US carriers to maintain the status quo regarding “locked in” ~~contacts~~ contracts and early termination fees. Any carrier, the thinking went, that broke with this status quo would eventually gain the most from attrition provided their service satisfied the coverage needs of new customers. However, others reasoned that such a carrier would experience significantly reduced revenue until the right combination of handsets were available and enough potential customers were "out of contract" with other carriers.

Perhaps because of some of the conditions you remark about earlier in your post, T-Mo has found itself in a position financially to ride out established upgrade schedules and reap the future pay-off of increased market share. :)

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

Well, if I do say so myself, as stuff about Project Black dribbles out it looks like I did guess right. No Sprint merger - a grab for customers with pricing and phones instead, lower service cost for unlocked phones (the 'Get More Plus' deal) and a little extra for 3G data service. Getting an unlocked N900 looks like a good move.

Back to polishing my crystal ball...

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crashdamage (Post 353363)

... lower service cost for unlocked phones (the 'Get More Plus' deal) and a little extra for 3G data service. Getting an unlocked N900 looks like a good move.

If you're going by the same rumors, the service cost is the same. With a contract, you get a subsidized phone (Even More) with a 2 year contract. Without subsidy (Even More Plus), you can opt to pay for the phone in installments.

What phone? What is the amount of subsidy? We don't know, it's all rumors and leaks until supposedly 10/25.

Oh, and furthermore, phone for $559.99 on Newegg.

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

This is good news - but I am a bit sceptical here.

What if they do sell the phones (and the N900) over at T-Mobile but at higher prices than most retailers. Then what is the benefit of buying from T-mobile where I actually have to pay more than market prevailing prices just to get a monthly plan ?

If they can price match at leats most retailers and have it on par prices than that makes sence. But if they have already added a premium of 20% on the price and then offer a monthly plan buying plan - that is a bit of a downer for me.

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

I'm hoping for a pre-paid or out of contact plan that allows data... on the cheap. In fact a DATA only plan would be sweet.
I wouldn't mind having to pay full tilt on any calls I have to make or recieve on the thing, but I would like an all I can eat DATA w/3G for say, $20 a day...

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

Quote:

Originally Posted by nilchak (Post 353908)

What if they do sell the phones (and the N900) over at T-Mobile but at higher prices than most retailers.

There's going to be a cost to finance it. Whether or not you think it is reasonable is something we can only determine when we see the exact plan details.

VZW's Droid (nee Sholes) breaks 10/28. Hopefully we'll have enough info to compare it to T-Mo+N900 by then.

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

Quote:

Originally Posted by UCOMM (Post 349404)

rather than the type of phone i suspect it would be based on whether you got a subsidy on the phone or payed in full/brought your own

I still strongly doubt this model, despite hoping for it. It would be nice and could change how mobile devices are bough sold and attached to plans in the US. Additionally it would finally make economic sense to buy an unlocked phone.

The problem is that it would be introducing a new model to the USA and shaking up the status quo. This would introduce a lot of new risk to the market. This would be great for us, but not for the telcos

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

Quote:

Originally Posted by nilchak (Post 353908)

assuming that nokia does not offer a discounted "bring your own mobile" plan then you get nothing either way. If they offer a bring your own mobile plan then you don't get much out of buying it unsubsidized from t-mobile, immediatly, but you should find some savings over the life of the plan. (in theory is should be the selling price * the money factor)

It is similar to a car lease vs buy decision. if you buy the car you own it and can sell it for whatever residual value. if you lease the car the you owe the dealer the residual value at the end of the lease term + you have paid for the cost of money over the time of the lease.

Buying a car outright is generally cheaper than leasing, it is just more expensive up front, where the lease is cheaper up front but more expensive over time.

Now, since i do not believe we will see a "bring your own mobile" plan in the US, not buying the subsidized phone from TMO just means you got financially raped for the privilege of having an unlocked phone (and the benefits it comes with)

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

Quote:

Originally Posted by YoDude (Post 352566)

Very good! http://www.clicksmilies.com/auswahl/ernaehrung004.gif

I too think this last bit^ will be the case and may very well be the game changer they speak of.

We may have seen in the past how a balance of things like "Churn rate", "ARPU", and handset introduction and customer upgrade schedules could put pressure on US carriers to maintain the status quo regarding “locked in” ~~contacts~~ contracts and early termination fees. Any carrier, the thinking went, that broke with this status quo would eventually gain the most from attrition provided their service satisfied the coverage needs of new customers. However, others reasoned that such a carrier would experience significantly reduced revenue until the right combination of handsets were available and enough potential customers were "out of contract" with other carriers.

Perhaps because of some of the conditions you remark about earlier in your post, T-Mo has found itself in a position financially to ride out established upgrade schedules and reap the future pay-off of increased market share. :)

How strong can this be in the US??

TMO has a "unique" bandwith for 3g. It means that anyone who wants a fast connection needs a new phone. (if they come from at&t or a connection at all if they come from Vz or sprint) In Europe it is a bit different, All telcos are running on the same bands, I can easily move from 02 to Vodaphone or TMO-DE easily and get full functionality of my mobile.

I dont think this will help future device churn as we move more and more towards a data centric mobile world. It may be a nice blip for dumbphone users but will not likely affect smart(er) phone users.

Re: Big announcement coming soon from T-Mobile ; Project Black to shake things up?

I have some good and bad news. I just confirmed with a t-mobile representative in my building... they will be getting Nokia phones and selling them unlocked as part of Project Dark... but not N900's, probably N97's.

Good news being that it confirms they will have unlocked plans available and even unlocked phones... but why no n900 i don't know... maybe they just aren't ready, or maybe they just aren't part of the promotion.

The guy I talked to said he very much doubts they will subsidize with a contract any high end nokia phones any time in the near future, so don't get your hopes up if that is what you wanted.