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-   -   Let's talk Nokia stock! (https://talk.maemo.org/showthread.php?t=56370)

Enyibinakata 2010-06-16 21:18

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bsving (Post 718061)
I don't think you get it. The reality is not what the US blogosphere is portraying. Therefore they don't sway any customers in either direction. At best they only believe they do, and only if they happen to live inside the same bubble.

@ysss is quite interesting but never seems to get anything. He could start an argument in an empty room.

ysss 2010-06-16 21:26

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
@enyi: there is a thread for ad hominem attack :) or you could pm me directly.

I welcome discussion/debates that are in topic here though.

bsving 2010-06-16 21:46

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by danramos (Post 718152)
bsving... wow.. I had to whistle at your post. I couldn't disagree more with pretty much everything and every individual element of what you said. Wow.

Well, what can I say? Wow...

bsving 2010-06-16 21:57

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ysss (Post 718155)
So what's the reason of Nokia issuing profit warning?

Lets see, could it be that the forecast for profit based on sales of phones are looking a bit gloomy perhaps? :rolleyes:

pthomas22 2010-06-16 21:58

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Nokia will shortly be marked as a pretty major sell when some quarterly market reviews come out. A few senior nokia execs will be shocked about how negatively the market views the future for Nokia and a fair few will be looking for new jobs. With a new management team Nokia can trash the opposition.

ysss 2010-06-16 22:09

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bsving (Post 718349)
Lets see, could it be that the forecast for profit based on sales of phones are looking a bit gloomy perhaps? :rolleyes:

Well, the popular pro-Nokia views here discredit the importance of smartphone segment while altogether maintaining Nokia's superiority in that segment.

Thus I was rather surprised that Nokia listed that point as the first 'excuse' to their profit warning. As for the declining Euro value, it only comes into effect partway through the period. I can see this considerably affecting their financials going through 2010 though, if euro value doesn't recover.

bugelrex 2010-06-16 22:15

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pthomas22 (Post 718352)
Nokia will shortly be marked as a pretty major sell when some quarterly market reviews come out. A few senior nokia execs will be shocked about how negatively the market views the future for Nokia and a fair few will be looking for new jobs. With a new management team Nokia can trash the opposition.

How are the labour laws in Finland? Is everything unionized making it impossible to layoff non-performers?

The stock will skyrocket once the CEO is replaced...

bsving 2010-06-16 22:40

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ysss (Post 718370)
Well, the popular pro-Nokia views here discredit the importance of smartphone segment while altogether maintaining Nokia's superiority in that segment.

Thus I was rather surprised that Nokia listed that point as the first 'excuse' to their profit warning. As for the declining Euro value, it only comes into effect partway through the period. I can see this considerably affecting their financials going through 2010 though, if euro value doesn't recover.

Nokia say what Nokia has to say in a situation like this. Everyone, and Nokia in particular, knows that the real reason is that they aren't fast enough making a killer phone like the X10 mini (number one selling phone in Europe right now, not just smartphones, but every phone counting including "dumbphones"). The X10 mini is a smartphone running Android, so there should be no reason to be surprised.

That is the simple truth. iPhone, droids, Blackerries, totally uninteresting. The competition is from Sony Ericsson, and it will get worse before it gets better. Samsung and Bada is coming at full steam.

pthomas22 2010-06-16 22:57

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bugelrex (Post 718387)
How are the labour laws in Finland? Is everything unionized making it impossible to layoff non-performers?

The stock will skyrocket once the CEO is replaced...

The CEO willl take a few with him. Nokia have no choice but to remove the majority of its senior management team. It is sink or swim and shareholders will decide

lemon_grass 2010-06-17 08:31

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Hello - long time listener, first time post, anyhow I feel Nokia has fallen into the trap that many big companies have been caught in before.

My parallel example would be the big American auto manufacturers such as GM/Ford - competitors from Japan were always present in the US market but the American firms became so entrenched in a certain way of working they stopped all real R+D. By this I mean real R+D is to try totally new approaches, to break with the past - BUT to also offer the chance for the fruits from R+D to be fed into production.

To me the S60 devices are suffering from a complete collapse of mindshare - development for S60 is difficult - although Nokia is desperately attempting to bring QT to S60. The UI is tired. TIRED. TIRED. But they are unable to produce a better feel; or they just don't care;

I have an N900 - with a few tweaks to the phone UI app I'm sure it could work better and enter the mainstream. If Maemo had been given cellular capable hardware far far earlier Nokia would not be in this mess now.

volt 2010-06-17 08:46

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
On a general basis, it's a great time to buy stocks when a nowhere-near-bankruptcy firm delivers short term bad news. There's bound to come some good news at some time.

In Nokias case, their strong footing in all developing markets says they can fail as much they want to in smartphones and still be the world's strongest cell phone firm. Maybe it takes a CEO or two, and a Symbian rewrite or two, but Nokia is going nowhere. They're selling loads of phones.

JulmaHerra 2010-06-17 08:58

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
I agree with Volt. Nokia has coffers full of money and they still make profit and pay regular dividends, even in these very bad times and mediocre set of products. For short term there is nothing to help, but they are making progress. On longer term, MeeGo will bring something interesting and I believe that Symbian^3 and ^4 will also make Symbian user experience more tolerable. Therefore it might not be a bad idea to invest in Nokia.

AlMehdi 2010-06-17 09:38

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bugelrex (Post 717805)
The only reason to be happy with it is that Nokia might *finally* start to notice they are on the wrong path and correct it. Start with dumping the CEO

They need to realize its not 2005 anymore, the competition has caught and Nokia needs to lead. Currently their high end products can barely compete (for the majority of consumers)
*currently* Consumers like:
- ease of use, not 5 layers of menus to do one thing
- stable OS and out of the box apps
- touch screen
- slim phone
- great battery life
- decent maps,music,video,facebook apps designed for touch screen
- decent front and back camera.

Name one Nokia phone on the market that meets these requirements

The n900 got better battery life than the Nexus and 3Gs too i think. Camera is better than most of the competitors. Resisitive are far better on a smartphone than capacitive (in my mind). The OS are stable and have a longer learning curve than the others.. but are more powerful.

The only lack the n900 have is a slim and flashy outer body. (Though i wouldn't mind if it was little bigger.. 4" screen would be nice.)

gruik 2010-06-17 14:19

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Since 5 years Nokia's strategy is catastrophic. Two many errors (N97, N900). They can't see that the world had changed. Make some usable interface with pretty UI! It's so simple!! I think the next N8 will not be a big success with its actual awful UI.

Google, in 2 years, had made 4 realases of Android ! 4!! With it’s next gingerbread they want to focus on UI… they know it’s very important nowadays. But Nokia no. This company is leaded by a guy who don’t understand the markets. Steve Jobs use its products! He know what features/improvements people want. OPK is just a businessman with no users market.
It’s keynote is boring, tiring.

USA is the place of the most important medias of the world. They can build or defeat a brand name in few articles. Why nokia don”t put all its strength is this market?? In all articles on the web they says iPhone OS or Android and forgot Symbian. Why? Because Americans don”t know anything about Nokia!

Dave999 2010-06-17 18:36

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
as you say it. one could think that amaricans are lacy, easy to buy with sweet talk ;) but I would never say that. My point is this. US is important, but I would say Asia is the future.

stock is down again I think I will buy it for around 5.60 in a few months... ;)

Techtertainment 2010-06-17 19:35

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
is this Rafe Blantford?

i agree with you its just a shame that "long Term" does not conpute in the techworld.. as a developer, consumer and a Nokia fan (love thier hardware) knowing that the good stuff is coming but is 1yr to 2yrs away is very frustrating.. shame they do not release high end top range 4" devices like HTC and as frequent too.

i believe in Nokia its just a shame the US own the tech media and Financial media and with no Nokia visibility in the US mindshare suffers. but Nokia is also very poor with communication

danramos 2010-06-17 19:45

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Nokia.. Japanese, right? I KNOW you get the reference. Just saying.

theflew 2010-06-17 19:49

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ysss (Post 718155)
So what's the reason of Nokia issuing profit warning?

Delay in shipping the N8 - Q2 to Q3.

Texrat 2010-06-17 19:50

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Enyibinakata (Post 718257)
@ysss is quite interesting but never seems to get anything. He could start an argument in an empty room.

Let's just drop the flaming. Not allowed.

pthomas22 2010-06-17 20:51

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by theflew (Post 719709)
Delay in shipping the N8 - Q2 to Q3.

Not the whole reason
Developers are also deserting Nokia in droves (esp those who develop for the Ovi store) as the software platform for Nokia is unclear.

Dave999 2010-06-17 20:55

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pthomas22 (Post 719799)
Not the whole reason
Developers are also deserting Nokia in droves (esp those who develop for the Ovi store) as the software platform for Nokia is unclear.

well. this can't be a reason for profit warnings for Q2.

at least not for me :)

ysss 2010-06-17 21:11

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bsving (Post 718424)
Nokia say what Nokia has to say in a situation like this. Everyone, and Nokia in particular, knows that the real reason is that they aren't fast enough making a killer phone like the X10 mini (number one selling phone in Europe right now, not just smartphones, but every phone counting including "dumbphones"). The X10 mini is a smartphone running Android, so there should be no reason to be surprised.

I don't get the logic here.
If you want to make an excuse, why give credit to your competitors that they're doing so well to affect your own operation negatively? It's better to say there's a mistake in your own supply chain that's now under control. That is, if you expect things to get better soon; which is obviously not the case here.

Quote:

That is the simple truth. iPhone, droids, Blackerries, totally uninteresting. The competition is from Sony Ericsson, and it will get worse before it gets better. Samsung and Bada is coming at full steam.
You've an interesting definition of 'uninteresting' :D
I think it'd be interesting to see Nokia's financial performance of their low\mid-range handset.

Enyibinakata 2010-06-17 21:22

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ysss (Post 718285)
@enyi: there is a thread for ad hominem attack :) or you could pm me directly.

I welcome discussion/debates that are in topic here though.

@ysss I did not mean to attack, just frustrated over NOKs predicament. BTW who do you work for ? I suspect you work for Nokia's competitor. Samsung?

mrojas 2010-06-18 17:23

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
The big problem is that a lot of Nokia investors are US based; and hence, like their bloggers; ignorant.

Dave999 2010-06-18 17:28

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrojas (Post 720746)
The big problem is that a lot of Nokia investors are US based; and hence, like their bloggers; ignorant.

what do you mean?? Don't see your point...:confused:

mrojas 2010-06-18 17:37

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave999 (Post 720752)
what do you mean?? Don't see your point...:confused:

Sorry, should have been more explanatory. I was thinking on all the doom and gloom about Nokia going to dissapear because they don't have a pretty UI (thinking about the finish of Q1). What good did a pretty UI do to Palm?

A lot of Nokia's investors are USA based; and so when they see Nokia not progressing there; and Apple and RIM making advances; it is easy for them to think Nokia is doomed and what is happening in the USA is the prologue of Nokia's destruction around the world. Which it is completely unreal on how the global mobile market works.

Wall Street is completely divorced from how things work in reality in many industries; and specially in mobile.

ysss 2010-06-18 17:47

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
@mrojas: don't you think us-based bloggers pretty much dominate the gadget/tech news on the net? what other english language gadget source is bigger than engadget/gizmodo?

@enyibinakata: no, I don't work for Samsung. (nor Apple).

mrojas 2010-06-18 17:56

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ysss (Post 720781)
@mrojas: don't you think us-based bloggers pretty much dominate the gadget/tech news on the net? what other english language gadget source is bigger than engadget/gizmodo?

I have no idea. I would need to check out the comparative statistics on global readership and hits for the different blogs services in the different languages and demographics around the world. Because, you know, the net happens to be global.

I personally don't read them too much because I find them very ignorant on what I consider important points and too USA-centric (Engadget seems to be learning a bit this days from what I hear); and off course, their content is tailored and written from the point of view of the US market; which is a pretty weird and backwards market in mobile.

So yeah, I don't like misinformation and ignorance being spread and taken as truth; and we have had a lot of that shamelessly coming from those sources in this days.

cBeam 2010-06-18 18:10

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
I do agree that the tech blogs get it wrong most of the time, but also their influence is overstated. However, Nokia's offical communications are a pity.

However, that does not diminish the fact that Nokia is currently extremely weak in executing on their strategy. The N8 should be in stores now, not sometime in Q3. It is unforgivable that they block almost any Maemo / Meego development for 3rd parties just because they don't get their act together for N900 PR1.2.

Nokia's problem is that too many things do not go well right now. If they continue this downward path then they might lose mindshare and then marketshare.

Nokia's opportunity is the huge installed base, the brand stands for something (they need to be cautious here though), and if they deliver a few hot devices they might be able to squander the competition.

I am not sure if Nokia can deliver, and many more aren't either. This brings the stock down, not the techblogs or ignorance of analysts (who usually get it right 50% and wrong 50%, so they are as useful as a coin you can flip).

gerbick 2010-06-18 18:18

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrojas (Post 720746)
The big problem is that a lot of Nokia investors are US based; and hence, like their bloggers; ignorant.

I can read the numbers quite well. And they're going down steadily.

$8.90 as of (right now) today with a big problem being due to the strength of the Euro against the US Dollar being in our advantage at the moment.

Ignorance has nothing to do with that number. They've basically given up on this market like they have in Japan. Place the blame where it properly should be placed.

bsving 2010-06-18 18:21

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ysss (Post 719828)
I don't get the logic here.
If you want to make an excuse, why give credit to your competitors that they're doing so well to affect your own operation negatively? It's better to say there's a mistake in your own supply chain that's now under control. That is, if you expect things to get better soon; which is obviously not the case here.



You've an interesting definition of 'uninteresting' :D
I think it'd be interesting to see Nokia's financial performance of their low\mid-range handset.

They are simply saying what everybody knows. They are too late with Symbian⁴ and way too late with killer devices using that OS. The E-series is still selling, the N-series isn't all that good, and the higher mid range is being eaten alive by Sony Ericsson right now (and SE is also eating the iPhone by the way, so the iPhone is really the least of Nokias problems). The last good seller from Nokia was the 5800, and now they really have nothing to compete with. The N8 will come soon (and I am getting one :) ) but this phone cannot compete with the X10 mini and the X8, it is way too geeky.

The big winner is of course Android and SE. The big looser is Nokia, but also iPhone. Samsung with Bada will also come before Nokia can do anything. Samsung will also take big chunks of both Nokia and iPhone.

This is in the international arena where 95% of phones are sold. What will happen in the en-bubble-geek-world-ruled-by-operators called the USA, I have no idea. :eek:

But who cares, in a years time Nokia is back with a vengeance :)

quipper8 2010-06-18 18:22

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lemon_grass (Post 718869)
American firms became so entrenched in a certain way of working they stopped all real R+D. By this I mean real R+D is to try totally new approaches, to break with the past - BUT to also offer the chance for the fruits from R+D to be fed into production

I would argue that nokia has been doing a LOT of R&D, not so much releasing, but definitely a lot of R&D

bugelrex 2010-06-18 18:44

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrojas (Post 720746)
The big problem is that a lot of Nokia investors are US based; and hence, like their bloggers; ignorant.

They may be ignorant, but not stupid. They don't like what Nokia's management is doing to "THEIR" company. I don't blame them

quipper8 2010-06-23 13:32

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
a recent article

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/6072774.cms

Quote:

In the last quarter, you had impressive results—smartphone shipments were up 50%, revenues up 20%. But your shares have lost a lot of value since then. Why is that analysts and traders are shaky about holding on to Nokia shares? After results, your shares lost all the gains they had made up in the previous months.

Yes, but I am not a very good predictor of the stock market. As such, I think what the market is saying is that the whole handset segment is in state of flux. There is a big ongoing change. If you look at just the original promise of the mobile, that was to make phone calls available, independent of time and place. Then it was enhanced with short messaging.

And then you look at the global population—a majority who wanted these services has been covered. So, the new penetration potential is very small although there are opportunities left India, China, Africa and South America. So, what now needs to happen is a change in the businesses, and we have been actually been saying for more than 10 years about convergence of the internet and mobile—this is precisely what is happening.

This device is moving from being a phone to a being a computer. Look at what has happened in the internet, which has become a social meeting place rather than just information depository. Perhaps the analysts and investors are thinking—can Nokia make this transformation? I think the fact that we have not only kept, but also increased our smartphone market share, and that we have brought new services like navigation are proof that we can. If you then look at overall results, it is okay. The market did not like it, but our results are still better than any of the other traditional players in this business.
Quote:

When the first MeeGo products roll out, it will redefine the market for computers. So this game is a very dynamic one and you cannot make the judgement based on a quarter or two—it is a much longer one. Our strategy will be a volume-driven game, rather than concentrating on one or two products. We are the only company that plays in the whole cross section

Dave999 2010-06-23 20:52

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
down again...anyone bought during the week?

ysss 2010-06-23 20:58

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
don't try to catch a falling knife..

Dave999 2010-06-23 21:05

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ysss (Post 726831)
don't try to catch a falling knife..

well nokia is still doing good. the stock drop is not totally connected to anything in particulare. can't really motivate the fall. But at the same time...not a fast come back either.

maxximuscool 2010-06-23 21:08

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
All I can say is to NOKIA right now is Epic FAILURE and Shame on You NOKIA. This for making All N-series phone the same in features with just different looks. If Nokia just stay with 1 N-series device and mantaining it and improving it would just like the iPhone. One product but doing it well

gerbick 2010-06-23 21:14

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ysss (Post 726831)
don't try to catch a falling knife..

I'm stealing this.

Dave999 2010-06-23 21:17

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by maxximuscool (Post 726851)
All I can say is to NOKIA right now is Epic FAILURE and Shame on You NOKIA. This for making All N-series phone the same in features with just different looks. If Nokia just stay with 1 N-series device and mantaining it and improving it would just like the iPhone. One product but doing it well

not evrey brand have the same buisness model. I don't think nokia shall move towards fewer models. let apple do that. howerver. I do think nokia needs to be more specific about the purpuse of the phones they are releasing.


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