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Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
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Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
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EDIT: I guess, your table is a number of patents for last year and you miss that in your post. |
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You may be right, Nokia actually deserves being purchased by Microsoft, but that does not make it a viable business proposal. It's still just a load of nonsense. And by the way, Intel buying Nokia is never going to happen (never meaning during the next 10 years in the mobile world). |
Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
Hey I thought Nokia Seimens owns a division of Motorola already just last year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/te...y/20nokia.html I don't know what's to come of this, but I noticed some similarities between the keypad designs of the Droids and the Nokia Internet Tablets (incl. N900). // Roth |
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You're wrong. There IS sound logic, presented in numerous sober analyses... and it's purely your opinion, not fact, to the contrary. You're also wrong in being so absolute. As an outside individual there is no way you have conclusive knowledge one way or the other on what Microsoft or Intel will do next vis-a-vis Nokia. You're additionally wrong to speak for others in saying "no one" believes such things can or will happen. That should be self-obvious. Finally, you're wrong to limit the scope of anyone else's reasoning. For many, the "trojan" allegation never enters into the analysis. Four ways you're wrong out of the gate... based simply on logic and reasoning, ironically. So...
What's fun is that if I'm wrong no big deal; I'm just speaking in terms of possibilities and probabilities. If you're wrong, it's absolute. ;) /done trying to shine light for you |
Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
Alright, Google want patents, but this is the real reason...
http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/4145...-phone-7-plans |
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Funny when you in June said that Nokia would never announce a Meego device.... I think you doing the same mistake now.... |
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It is entirely possible that Microsoft or Intel could buy Nokia, but the probability is zero from a practical real world point of view, and the possibility does not contain any sound business logic. There is a possibility that the major investors are getting cold feet, that possibility cannot be denied, but it is also impossible to confirm or anticipate, and it has nothing to do with sound business logic. If anything, the Google-Motorola purchase is a very good foot-warmer for Nokia investors. |
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Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
One of the corporate moves that signal a selling is when the company willingly splits into divisions. I think beginning this year, the profitable network division and maps division were segregated from the loss leading mobile division. The same was done by Motorola, because then they can prime to sell division by division if the need arises. It makes it a palatable offering to would be buyers, because no one wants to buy x and get x plus y and z in the process.
As far as conjecture goes, even Apple could buy it on the basis of they can afford it more so than most of these companies. Intel needs this more then Windows because they have been marginalized out of the burgeoning mobile market, and the PC market is both shrinking and opening up to ARM. Intel lost in the graphics department with there Banshee push, and the netbook surge has died off. If the Mac Book Air as rumored goes over to Apples ARM based A5's and A'n' processors then it signals that OSX is being converted for ARM use. Intel is definitely being squeezed from multiple angles, but they still have a wide market spread and have some time to change the tides ... but I'm sure they realize the headwinds are not in their favor. For MS, it just shows they over payed for Skype and the folks over at Google are shrewd because they got more than Skype for $4 billion more. MS I think because of the Skype deal is in a tougher position, and if talks had been ongoing between Nokia and MS, the Motorola deal does a lot to raise Nokia's valuation ... that is why stock prices are rising, Nokia is a prime buying target but is valued more than Motorola. We can also make the same wild conjecture of Amazon wanting to get an in into the mobile market. They are releasing tablets and phones soon, why not come in with a brand besides Amazon. Same goes for Acer, as they have made some hardware but they haven't had any real traction to date. Acer wants to becmoe more Apple like, so why not scoop up Nokia and make that push. Samsung is in the pits with Apple right now. They can gain wide leverage against the patent trolling, get acess to MeeGo as an alternative to Android and find a place and audience for the Bada OS as well. What will be clear is if Nokia was to sell. Only the mobile division seems to be on the chopping block. Nokia will exist but no longer as a Phone maker. Personally I think this was a self made injury dating back to the inaction's of OPK and his team. Nokia was garbage by the time Elop came in, but he did accelerate the burning platform. Little did we know at the time the burning platform speech was made ... that Elop like Emperor Nero ... would play the violin while Rome burnt. But definitely OPK started the fire, although the guy who was last there is etched into history. |
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just wp7 is a failure. |
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http://iphone.macnn.com/fullarticles...r.failed.sale/ |
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Oh, and fixed for you. :rolleyes: |
Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
Thanks Mojo, excellent, reasonable analysis. Breath of fresh air. :D
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If the first sales of the Nokia Windows Phone aren't good enough to please shareholders Microsoft will probably buy Nokia (selling the network division).
If they don't pressure from shareholders will persuade Nokia to switch strategy again and just become a hardware manufacturer, producing Android, Windows Phone and other OS-es based phones. Microsoft can't let that happen because it would give a signal to consumers that Windows Phone has failed, probably resulting in a Self-fulfilling prophecy. If Nokia management decides to split off the network division, Nokia will definitely be sold to Microsoft, and the management will just be making preparations. But even if Nokia doesn't split Microsoft would still want to buy Nokia if disappointing sales could trigger a change in strategy at Nokia. MS just can't let that happen if they want to survive in the mobile space. |
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We all remember when Palm was bought by HP. A very few saw that, a huge majority was taken a back by it ... heck I never saw it coming. So as much as the smart money is on Samsung, Intel and MS, we can't take it for granted that some company with money will swoop in from left field that we didn't even consider at the time. So with that in mind, who cares ... just buy the stock while its low and let the speculations make you some money ... it would be nice to remember Nokia as the company who made you some marginal profits rather than the tech company who failed to deliver on the promise of 'Connecting People'. |
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*None of whom Elop has sacked so far. The parade of incompetents (Aho, Mcdowell,Savander, Harlow et al.) are all still with their comfy posts, while the people who had a clue have left. This particular Elop failure has remained mostly unnoticed, understandable considering that there has been plenty of other reasons to be upset. |
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Personally I think M$ doesn't buy Nokia ... because of some economics. EDIT: In case of M$ buy Nokia the lawsuits against this sell off and against Mr.Elop can be myriad and last forever and costly. Because it is too obvious the breach of trust for shareholders and intentional value lose. |
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Just one ref - http://www.forbes.com/sites/mobiledi...st-concerns/2/ "Motorola has about 17,000 approved patents and another 7,500 pending approval, a collection substantially larger than the group of patents recently sold at Canadian based-Nortel Networks’ bankruptcy auction, which were snapped up in June by a consortium of mostly Android competitors, including Apple and Microsoft, for a whopping $4.5 billion." I think, CNET man just counted some specific patents for mobile smartphones (mostly - UI). But he simplified too much and dropped all radio/LTE/electronics patents out of picture and didn't say you about it. |
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(The competitiveness of Intel CPUs is another issue but it is inside Intel and should be solved in any way... if Intel wants mobile market) Does Intel want? I don't know. |
Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
Armchair CEOs on this thread. I think that Ericsson is again correct that chances of nokia being purchased are very low. The whole stock price rise by a small amount by the way, is a work of speculators. Nokia is already in bed with MS. MS needs to deliver on their own with their ecosystem and OS, buying a loser such as
Nokia will not help it. I would be happy either way. Takeover means I will male some money off NOKIA stocks and if not, I will still male money with Nokias push with MS into the US market. Win win for me |
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Would you have seen Microsoft buying Skype last year? Would you have seen Google buying Motorola last year? I'm betting not. We're in a patent-driven Singularity right now, where all bets are off-- even some seemingly rational ones. Tech companies are spending billions on other tech companies on pure defensive motives-- THAT is profound. Nokia is very close to a make-or-break position, stock-wise, and the longer it hovers there the more likelly SOMEone is going to make a play for all or part of the company. Again, the assets are just too attractive... especially at today's bargain share price... and companies with a vested interest in Nokia's success, like Microsoft, HAVE to be nervous right now. Just watch. |
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The problem with Sony Ericsson is that the best buyer is already Sony, but if they decide to sell, just about anybody could purchase. HTC is on the top now, but can only go down being pressured from all directions, particularly Samsung, LG and ZTE, and soon also Nokia and Googorola. HTC got no IP to speak of. If Intel is purchasing someone, this could be it. A good brand with the most flexible manufacturing capacity of them all. HTC could sell intel powered MeeGo/Microsoft handsets/tablets in half a year if needed while still continuing with Android and WP. What you are saying about Nokia is a company that's in trouble, not a company that is necessarily willing to sell. Nokia is not giving up, they are, for the first time in years, proactively restructuring, refocusing and chopping of/ending what should be ended/restructured years ago. You can argue that WP is not the best choice right now, but you cannot argue that Nokia isn't fighting to stay alive. And what do we see? WP is getting more and more positive attention for each day. They are not acting like a company that wants to be sold. But keep on dreaming, pretend you will get your revenge at Nokia for giving up on Maemo/MeeGo when big bad M$/Intel eats them alive. LOL, you are funny. If MS or Intel is to purchase Nokia, I will eat my e-hat for breakfast. |
Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
Google bought Motorola mobile division purely for patents. I don't think that NOKIA will be cost effective purchase for the other giants who already have huge patent portfolios. Google was especially vulnerable as compared to the others. I don't think that NOKIA purchase is a logical next step.
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Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
ericsson
Now there was a manufacturer... the best phones I've ever ever ever owned |
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Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
Nobody makes no allusions as to the dire situation Nokia is in. I get the issues Elop was brought in to handle, but because of the drastic "ripping the bandage" type of action undertaken at Nokia to even begin the transition has really exposed quite a bit of underlying weaknesses with Nokia.
The realization that Symbian wouldn't cut it; albeit public really created massive losses for Nokia. Choosing to go WP7 solely had made the level uncertainty too much, and revealed that OPK had many years to transition towards Maemo but dropped the ball. Nokia has lost credibility, and that is why investors have become skeptical and consumers have become even more so hostile. Also CEO's are of different Pedigrees, Elop is first and foremost the Mergers/ Acquisitions type of CEO. The next billion with S40's and 150million Symbian by 2015 were fantastical numbers that this community even found quite hard to believe and the projections are not looking favorable. Obviously if Nokia can make such an error, how can we begin to believe that WP7 will be a success? Nokia doesn't have the timing to wage a slow war where WP7 increases market share ever so slowly year over year. They need instant hits, across all product lines and the first negative report countering that narrative will spell big problems for Nokia. Nokia can't even sell its hardware wherever it chooses anymore. They speak of phones and shelves with carriers being limited, but they forget to mention that at most 1 WP7 will be ready by years end and not a single N9 that is ready by September will be available at stores for Christmas and Holiday shopping spree. The truth is MS made it so that N9 never sees the light of day to the wide world market. I have tried WP7, and said it many times before that it is actually a solid device albeit some things can be better. The issue with Nokia is that they leveraged the entire company on WP7, and I find it hard to believe that WP7 can make that difference. They should of did both Android and WP7 ... why not, what is stopping them? So overall things don't look good and odds are Nokia will fail to revive, but it is doing a dual track plan. It is making it pretty to sell, and that has the highest probability of occurring. It doesn't take a genius to figure out ... WP7 if it doesn't sell well then Nokia is kaput, so what are the chances of that occurring. The guys who want solely patents can wait till negative numbers implodes Nokia stock. Those who want to protect Nokia's game plan have really a lot to lose ... remember MS will be taking a double risk, one that their OS is successful and another on Nokia as a business. The one who'll most likely make a move now is the company that wants to make a move into the mobile arena or strengthen it's mobile division. I think Samsung and Intel are key players in this arena. The deal between MS and Nokia isn't worth buying Nokia over ... they already have a bunch of partners, they may make some sort of arrangement where Nokia is partly invested in by MS as a minority stakeholder to ensure it gets through aggressive takeover bids and probably Nokia needs to cut the dividends, but that won't be good for the stock holders who only value that right now. |
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Actually, switching WP7 to x86 processor could be quite a problem. Despite the big words about how Nokia has special influence on WP and how easy it is to port WP to new HW, Nokia was forced to abandon its long term partner TI and go with Qualcomm... And this is same platform just different SoC. On the other hand MeeGo and Linux are already running on atom. |
Re: Google buying Motorola - now will MS buy Nokia?
If Motorola really had plans to go WP7 I'm now nearby to say: "Great google! I love you!" ;)
In this case a big win for google. But they have now to avoid bewilderment at the other Android vendors, this could get very negative in the long therm. IF Intel buys Nokia this could be the same case for MeeGo. The same like it was 2 years ago. Intel asked back then for other partners beside Nokia. But for Samsung & co was the influence of Nokia too big. Intel builds Chips and Hardware... nothing for end customers... BUT Intel is the biggest chip manufacturer at the desktop systems and where are they at the mobiles? Currently they have no chance, ARM is there the big one. And now Tablets are growing with ARM and Windows 8 will suppert ARM, too. So soon we could see desktops with cheap ARM instead of Intels i86. Microsoft pushed their .NET runtime compiler and guess what is now the BIG BENEFIT? Yes, you don't need to recompile the .NET applications if the runtimes are running at a different architecture. intel - you're screwed! So the benefit for intel would be the control of Nokia. I'm sure they wouldn't abadon WP7. Jeah, right. But they would push MeeGo as a second devision with tablets and handsets with a intel Atom core inside. They have to do something or ARM will get more and more marketshare and intel will loose a lot of their current business! |
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http://i767.photobucket.com/albums/x...rningSmall.jpg |
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If Intel buys Nokia (which is not gonna happen, Microsoft's alpha-dog already pissed all over Nokia) the very first thing Intel would do is axing WP7 plans. |
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