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-   -   Let's talk Nokia stock. Really. (https://talk.maemo.org/showthread.php?t=85965)

Lumiaman 2013-01-08 16:23

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
LOL. You only show up when negative ratings pop up.

daperl 2013-01-08 16:28

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
1 Attachment(s)
Trending nicely:

Attachment 30511

Lumiaman 2013-01-08 16:39

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
once a hater, always a hater....lol

gerbick 2013-01-08 17:18

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lumiaman (Post 1312351)
LOL. You only show up when negative ratings pop up.

Can there be such a thing as irony overdose?

Discoveryellow 2013-01-08 17:27

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
I had my fun with the NOK follwing my hands on impression of the N9 this year :)
(However I thought would get my first grey hair by mid summer. Market is such a gamble on mass psychology.)
Here is the full history:
BOUGHT [lots of them] AT $3.25 (in early May)
BOUGHT [some more] AT $2.82 (shortly after)
SOLD [my entire position] AT $3.2906 (on a random day in late August)
BOUGHT [new position] SHARES OF NOK AT $2.5296 (Following the great WinPhone 8 Microsoft presentation)
SOLD [everything] SHARES OF NOK AT $2.76 (In October when I had to close my brokerage account due to the "Patriotic Act")
It basically paid for my return ticket from the USA.

Discoveryellow 2013-01-08 17:36

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by daperl (Post 1312342)

Read less B.S.-for-free-analysis and trust more your gut feeling. If you want to read something go for books on mass consumer sentiments.

Lumiaman 2013-01-08 18:26

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
I have been using my Lumia 920 for the past 4 weeks or so, and overall, its a great device. Much better than anything touchscreen-wise NOKIA produced in the past 5 years. It is not on par with iOS, there are still glitches, but much better than Symbian, Maemo or Meego for the masses. I think it will sell to make NOKIA be in double digits again in a year or so, as percent of their share, and the stock will grow. The naysayers will always be there, and sure MS had lost a number of battles in the past, so has Apple and other companies. Overall I am optimistic about this stock doubling in 12 months.

Cue 2013-01-08 18:34

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lumiaman (Post 1312403)
I have been using my Lumia 920 for the past 4 weeks or so, and overall, its a great device. Much better than anything touchscreen-wise NOKIA produced in the past 5 years. It is not on par with iOS, there are still glitches, but much better than Symbian, Maemo or Meego for the masses. I think it will sell to make NOKIA be in double digits again in a year or so, as percent of their share, and the stock will grow. The naysayers will always be there, and sure MS had lost a number of battles in the past, so has Apple and other companies. Overall I am optimistic about this stock doubling in 12 months.

Do you have this post saved as some kind of macro on your keyboard? You repeat the same thing far too often. In fact if I actually cared enough to dig through that other stock thread you've probably said the same thing 12 months ago.

Lumiaman 2013-01-08 19:30

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Yes, I said I am optimistic in the long run

daperl 2013-01-08 20:18

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Discoveryellow (Post 1312380)
Read less B.S. ...<bs>...

Thanks for the tip. Have a good one!

danramos 2013-01-09 01:03

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Discoveryellow (Post 1312380)
Read less B.S.-for-free-analysis and trust more your gut feeling. If you want to read something go for books on mass consumer sentiments.

Yes! Let us take it from the gambling stock trader who admittedly sold off all his stock in the end anyway! :) The smartest thing you did was sell them all off when you could and before everything dropped back down again. I can't imagine that reads as a ringing endorsement for this stock--particularly given its trends, particularly in the long term.

Lumiaman 2013-01-09 01:40

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by danramos (Post 1312558)
Yes! Let us take it from the gambling stock trader who admittedly sold off all his stock in the end anyway! :) The smartest thing you did was sell them all off when you could and before everything dropped back down again. I can't imagine that reads as a ringing endorsement for this stock--particularly given its trends, particularly in the long term.

He is actually pointing the obvious. The link was to losers who are always trying to short it. Beware of talking heads. Ah, I forgot, you are one of them!!

daperl 2013-01-09 15:16

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Congratulations to Nokia for making the list.

http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/1180...at-tanked.html

The Lumia 900 reminds me of the N97.

Lumiaman 2013-01-09 16:16

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by daperl (Post 1312832)
Congratulations to Nokia for making the list.

http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/1180...at-tanked.html

The Lumia 900 reminds me of the N97.

Are you Tomi? Former Symbian employee? Hahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahaha.........

daperl 2013-01-09 16:19

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
1 Attachment(s)
Rollin'!

Attachment 30536

Dared 2013-01-10 02:10

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lumiaman (Post 1312856)
Are you Tomi? Former Symbian employee? Hahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahaha.........

He wasn't a former Symbian employee.

Plus he is the only one who has been spot on predicting Nokia's market share.

You know Lumiaman, you obviously mustn't have much going on in your life if you make yourself laugh with comments like these- I suggest you get a hobby (or a life)

Lumiaman 2013-01-10 02:36

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Hey, its just a stock price. Laugh too. Loudly.

OVK 2013-01-10 13:35

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
It is getting better for Nokia?
http://press.nokia.com/2013/01/10/no...mens-networks/

Stock up 15% in Helsinki.

thedead1440 2013-01-10 14:04

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Ah so 4.4 million Lumias vs 2.2 million Symbian vs 9.3 million Asha phones...

Pathetic Lumia performance as usual...

Expected Q1 '13 estimates are supposed to be lower than the above; I wonder at what rate are NOK actually targeting Lumias to be sold at...

OVK 2013-01-10 14:09

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by thedead1440 (Post 1313285)
Ah so 4.4 million Lumias vs 2.2 million Symbian vs 9.3 million Asha phones...

Pathetic Lumia performance as usual...

Expected Q1 '13 estimates are supposed to be lower than the above; I wonder at what rate are NOK actually targeting Lumias to be sold at...

It would be interesting to know how many of the Lumias sold are actually those cheap WP7 Lumias.

And also how many Symbians are (still) expensive Pureview 808's.

Stock might go down again when people notice that Lumia is still not selling well.

thedead1440 2013-01-10 14:25

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OVK (Post 1313288)
It would be interesting to know how many of the Lumias sold are actually those cheap WP7 Lumias.

And also how many Symbians are (still) expensive Pureview 808's.

Stock might go down again when people notice that Lumia is still not selling well.

Indeed; even those hard-core Lumia fans were expecting upwards of 6 million Lumias with 10 million being cautiously expected but to go down to just 4.4 million with both WP8 and WP7 devices in production is a set-back...

They expect competition to catch up this quarter so if Nokia plan to release another high-end flagship towards the 3rd or 4th quarter this means at least 2 quarters of losses again...

I expect further tanking of the stock price...

Dave999 2013-01-10 14:32

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Very well done by nokia! I can already hear Elops speach at MWC :D Lumia this, Lumia that, trancistion, we not there yet...inovation and ecosystem :D

Where is Lumiaman? I wan't to celebrate with him :)

thedead1440 2013-01-10 14:47

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave999 (Post 1313294)
Very well done by nokia! I can already hear Elops speach at MWC :D Lumia this, Lumia that, trancistion, we not there yet...inovation and ecosystem :D

Where is Lumiaman? I wan't to celebrate with him :)

^^^ Really made me laugh! Thanks for this Dave :D

Lumiaman 2013-01-10 14:51

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Stock went up by 15%...that is positive news.....will see what updates WP8 gets, and how much further it can grow. Nokia is on its way to double in 12 months

Lumiaman 2013-01-10 15:13

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Bring on daperl and all the other haters.......

daperl 2013-01-10 15:16

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Could be one of the best shorting opportunities of 2013:

Quote:

Nokia warned that "seasonality is expected to have a negative impact on the first quarter 2013" compared to the fourth quarter of 2012.
http://www.zdnet.com/nokia-q4-better...id-7000009641/

Dave999 2013-01-10 15:16

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lumiaman (Post 1313301)
Bring on daperl and all the other haters.......

Nice troll fame post right there. You shouldn't posted that second post :D

Lumiaman 2013-01-10 15:17

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by daperl (Post 1313304)
Could be one of the best shorting opportunities of 2013:



http://www.zdnet.com/nokia-q4-better...id-7000009641/

Hahahhahahahahaahhhahahahaahahahahaahahahha....... ..aaaaaaaaaaaaa......now that is definition of hater

ranbaxy 2013-01-10 16:02

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Lumiaman's day :)

Dave999 2013-01-10 16:04

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
I want to trade all my thanks to the moderater who catch Lumiaman and daperl and but them in the same thread for a week, no interference by others. I think they have to beef it out.

daperl 2013-01-10 16:31

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
I sure hope this doesn't have a negative effect:

http://www.techweekeurope.co.uk/news...attacks-103799

switch-hitter 2013-01-10 19:06

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310971)
while TA will cry that symbian app store was the greatest (in terms of size he might even be right) it was the most tiresome for devs. so many symbian versions (s30/40/60/v3/v5) even if one Nokia phone had a good app it was EXTREMELY unlikely devs spent extra 3x more work to support all keyboard layouts/screen resolutions etc.

If it took devs 3x more work they were doing it wrong.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310971)
You should also take these numbers with a bit of salt. TA gives numbers for Q4/Q1, while a slump is visible this way, the slowing growth (thanks to the greatest failed and superbly marketed concepts of N97/mini) would be much more visible with monthly data.

Please provide a link to the monthly data you have.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310971)
Feb announcement is 2 months into the failure Q1.

It was the start of February so it was only 1 month in. Also the Symbian Foundation was closed in Q4 2010 so it's quite possible carriers had already delayed reordering NOKIA products until they had clarified what was going on there. That's certainly what I would have done.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310971)
The memo wasn't an unsupported leak.

No, it was a press release.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310971)
A lot of people with instant access to the data decided a change to strategy was vital.

This was a vital strategic decision? Any strategist with more than half a brain should be able to predict the outcome of announcing his own products obsolete nearly a full year before he'd have anything viable to replace them with and he certainly wouldn't contemplate exclusively adopting an OS that was already a well proven failure.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310971)
If Q2/Q3 released devices were a hit you'd not see any big change in sale figures. People still buy good products.

NOKIA's customers are carriers and retailers not the end user, I doubt the buyers in such companies are in a hurry to order products that have been publicly announced obsolete. If I were a buyer in one of those companies on the day Elop announced Symbian/MeeGo EOL I would have phoned my contact at NOKIA and told them they could stick all open orders right up their 4r53 (and I'd expect them to take back any stock I couldn't shift too). Not only that but I'd think twice before having any further dealings with them.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310981)
Yes, live in pink Tomi's world where everyone was happy with Nokia and the words 'burning platform' came out of nowhere. It is not that every analyst was scared of how fast sales were dropping (from June/July so by the time Q4 hit the praised Tomi growth was FAR FAR FAR below expectations).

Please provide a link to the data showing the sales dropping, NOKIA's accounts show them increasing. Their initial financial statement in Q1 2011 also stated they could have sold even more if it weren't for component shortages.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310981)
aside from lunacy in his post judge his appraisals: Symbian as top app market, lol.

In terms of revenue it was second only to Apple's app store, it was bigger than the Android marketplace. That is a verifiable fact.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310981)
everyone knew Symbian was dead

Everyone, that is, except the tens of millions of people who continued to buy them.


Quote:

Originally Posted by szopin (Post 1310981)
I am yet to see how TA replies to overwhelming 920 adoption

Please provide a link to your evidence of 'overwhelming 920 adoption'.

switch-hitter 2013-01-10 19:39

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
It's going to be interesting to see NOKIA's gross margin when the financials come out seeing as they were dumping 800s at less than cost at the start of the quarter. I wonder what proportion of the 4.4 million they represent.

They sold over 9 million Ashas though which is good news. I hope they're not going to classify those as smartphones this quarter so they can muddy the waters when it comes to their margin on smart devices.

Their cash position will also be interesting, especially as their credit rating is now junk. If they've got no cash and no credit they're going to be on a sticky wicket.

szopin 2013-01-10 19:43

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by switch-hitter (Post 1313414)
If it took devs 3x more work they were doing it wrong.

Yup, all types of keyboards hw/sw, different screen sizes/resolutions, systems (yeah Symbian was not monolithic, they seem to fixed that with anna/belle I guess, at the time it was a mess)... Not sure how much coding work you've done for mobile platforms, but in order to sell a product you also have to deal with support. Much easier to limit app availability to some models (do other app stores have the awesome feature: supported nokias <insert long (or short if your resources are limited) list of Nxyz here>) and most apps were limited to certain models, don't think this is the case with iApps.

Quote:

Please provide a link to the monthly data you have.


It was the start of February so it was only 1 month in. Also the Symbian Foundation was closed in Q4 2010 so it's quite possible carriers had already delayed reordering NOKIA products until they had clarified what was going on there. That's certainly what I would have done.


No, it was a press release.


This was a vital strategic decision? Any strategist with more than half a brain should be able to predict the outcome of announcing his own products obsolete nearly a full year before he'd have anything viable to replace them with and he certainly wouldn't contemplate exclusively adopting an OS that was already a well proven failure.

...

Please provide a link to the data showing the sales dropping, NOKIA's accounts show them increasing. Their initial financial statement in Q1 2011 also stated they could have sold even more if it weren't for component shortages.


You don't need monthly/weekly/daily data. You just need to analyze available data unbiased, unlike TA. His reading of Q data is to support his vision of triumphant Symbian. Good for him. Just checked, leak was on Friday 4th of Feb, you're right, not half of Feb, the press release was 8th/9th as the damage was already done by the leak. Now, if Tomi's reading with comprehension, with constant steady growth in sales (the super growth theory) 2/3 of a Q would account for a drop in growth. His interpretation would need some below zero sales. Would he be still *****ing if the memo leaked at the beginning of Q2 when all investors would be shocked to see drop in sales, not slowing of growth? Then they would complain that the management is acting too slow to the changes in a dynamic market, guess you can't please everyone...

Quote:

In terms of revenue it was second only to Apple's app store, it was bigger than the Android marketplace. That is a verifiable fact.
Yeah, second to something that was 3 times younger, see a problem with that?

Quote:

Everyone, that is, except the tens of millions of people who continued to buy them.
Analysts/journalists/everyone... Symbian was from different generation by then. If it wasn't for 808 don't think the word 'tens' would make sense in the above sentence.

Quote:

Please provide a link to your evidence of 'overwhelming 920 adoption'.
Yeah, sold out in 2hrs is astroturfing...

Rugoz 2013-01-10 19:44

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
They sold 4m lumias in 2Q12, 4.4m in 4Q12. The forth quarter is always a strong one, so this quarter sales will go down again.

Stabilizing at a very low level. I think we can now officially say that the wp strategy has failed.

daperl 2013-01-10 19:53

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Underlying profit can mean whatever Nokia (Elop) wants it to mean.

Lumiaman 2013-01-10 21:18

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rugoz (Post 1313436)
They sold 4m lumias in 2Q12, 4.4m in 4Q12. The forth quarter is always a strong one, so this quarter sales will go down again.

Stabilizing at a very low level. I think we can now officially say that the wp strategy has failed.

I think you have officially failed to comprehend the return of Nokia as part of the third ecosystem.

gerbick 2013-01-10 21:35

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lumiaman (Post 1313471)
I think you have officially failed to comprehend the return of Nokia as part of the third ecosystem.

It's not that much of a comeback of sale, honestly. Apple sold 86 million whereas Samsung sold 21 million in the US alone last year.

Stats located here. Those are not global numbers. And Windows Phone is still not even 10% of the global share.

Lumiaman 2013-01-10 22:07

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Its good for a nascent OS. If they make next few steps right, they can get into double digits. That is the goal.

Dave999 2013-01-10 22:29

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock. Really.
 
Hey guys, don't rain on lumiaman's parade!

Give him a day.


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