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Re: Know thy enemy...

Quote:

Second, Gartner may be underestimating the impact of network effects, which is the concept that the value of a network grows with additional users. The classic example is the telephone. If you're the only person with a telephone, it's perfectly useless. But the device's value and appeal grows with each person who uses one.

You can read a longer description here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect

In the case of smartphone, network effects are huge, and the iPhone has worked to take advantage of this. The author goes on to speak about how you'll only be able to play multiplayer iPhone games with other iPhone users, and there's some merrit to this line of thought, but the network externalities are much more extensive then that: When I buy an iPhone, I'm executing an agreement between Apple and myself, but external to the two parties who have any say, iPhone developers get value in that their install base grows by one. This becomes a virtuous cycle: as the install base grows, more developers are attracted to the iPhone and develope more apps, which in turn attracts more users, etc. etc.

To expand then on the authors argument, Apple has been successful in inducing enough users and developers to get on the iPhone that the reaction has become self sustaining, and despite a new phone coming to the market with the best hardware and development environment along with a reasonable cost, it will not be able to break Apple's market domination because these network effects.

I don't know myself if Apple's reached that point, but it certainly has happened before. The most obvious example is Windows Vs. Mac (vs. Linux!) - Windows took off because it got all the apps, then everyone flocked to the system, and then developers spent the vast majority of their time working on Windows systems, lather, rinse, repeat. Apple vastly improved their OS with X, and made a dent by spending tons of money on advertising, but ultimately, they are still in second place.

An even better (although more obscure and less controversial) example would be alternate DNS systems. You can use one, but hardly anyone else does, so you just stick to ICANN. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_DNS_root

Re: Know thy enemy...

It's all about ecosystems.

Re: Know thy enemy...

Quote:

Originally Posted by gerbick (Post 355426)

I've had that same argument. Pulled out my N810, viewed a site with Flash on it. Then opened up terminal and gained root.

Asked them to do the same.

True that about Flash, but with my iPod touch and the $.99 TouchTerm I can be root on all my boxes through SSH.

Re: Know thy enemy...

Quote:

Originally Posted by bocaJ (Post 356058)

I only browsed this thread, but I think everyone should be clear that the term "Network Effects" (or Network Externalities) is not directly related to Facebook or other social websites at all. Read the authors description again:

You can read a longer description here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect

In the case of smartphone, network effects are huge, and the iPhone has worked to take advantage of this. The author goes on to speak about how you'll only be able to play multiplayer iPhone games with other iPhone users, and there's some merrit to this line of thought, but the network externalities are much more extensive then that: When I buy an iPhone, I'm executing an agreement between Apple and myself, but external to the two parties who have any say, iPhone developers get value in that their install base grows by one. This becomes a virtuous cycle: as the install base grows, more developers are attracted to the iPhone and develope more apps, which in turn attracts more users, etc. etc.

To expand then on the authors argument, Apple has been successful in inducing enough users and developers to get on the iPhone that the reaction has become self sustaining, and despite a new phone coming to the market with the best hardware and development environment along with a reasonable cost, it will not be able to break Apple's market domination because these network effects.

I don't know myself if Apple's reached that point, but it certainly has happened before. The most obvious example is Windows Vs. Mac (vs. Linux!) - Windows took off because it got all the apps, then everyone flocked to the system, and then developers spent the vast majority of their time working on Windows systems, lather, rinse, repeat. Apple vastly improved their OS with X, and made a dent by spending tons of money on advertising, but ultimately, they are still in second place.

An even better (although more obscure and less controversial) example would be alternate DNS systems. You can use one, but hardly anyone else does, so you just stick to ICANN. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_DNS_root

maybe one could also call it the itms halo?

ipod brings itunes, itunes brings itms, then iphone hooks into the same itms, adds a app store, and **** hits the fan...

we also see safari using the same updater as itunes, with the result that people experience having the other pushed on them when updating one of them...

i just sit waiting for a imac without osx, but with a system fairly similar to iphone, with direct hooks to itms and the app store, and the apple osx ioffice and ilife stuff converted to fit.

then then slap pro on anything running osx, to keep the photoshoppers and other media people happy...

Re: Know thy enemy...

Quote:

Originally Posted by gerbick (Post 355390)

Mind you, I own an iPhone. But I don't think that it quite "owns" the market as much as it's owning mindshare right now.

And the Kindle... I think Barnes & Noble's nook with sharing/wifi actually has a slight edge imho too.

The Nook is crippled in that you don't have internet access to your email or Project Gutenberg or anything else, just a dumb store. If that gives it an edge...

Re: Know thy enemy...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 355930)

A caveat: a very recent study refined that premise, demonstrating that only when too many choices induce anxiety is this really an issue. The main driving factor appears to be time as you say... which makes perfect sense. If I have days to decide, 20 choices is great. If I have mere minutes, not so much.

But I'm in alignment anyway. 60 "varieties" of toothpaste on my grocer's shelf is about 50 too many IMO. :D

I don't think it's just short time that makes people fear choice. See the old book Escape from Freedom by Erich Fromm for why people often prefer dictatorship, which is the perfect analogy to Apple, I think.

Re: Know thy enemy...

I guess it largely depends on what you want to do with the system. I see people who enjoy to tinker endlessly with their system\gadgets and for these type of users, having a completely open and broad system is a must. Because that's the main function of the system for them. This is necessary for developers as well, to have as much options and tools available.

But for end users who are result oriented, they'd much rather if they can just get the best result with the least effort possible through that system. They'd rather not have the choice of, say, 4 different IM applications if there is one that can satisfy, say, 70% of their needs.

Think of it as if you're shopping for an appliance that you don't care as much as your computer. Say you're buying a stove or microwave, do you do as much research about them as if you're buying a new smartphone?

Obviously your buying process for a kitchen appliance will be different than, say, a chef who's got a few michelin stars under his belt. You have different viewpoint and priorities.

Re: Know thy enemy...

As ysss says, there are two kinds of people

Those who ENJOY messing around with their phone and those who just want it to work. However, these markets do not have to be different products, which is what maemo is trying to do. If it is easy to use on the outside, and gives you access to the inside, its closer to perfect.

Re: Know thy enemy...

I think you also need to take account of those of us who have a foot in each camp. Most of the time, I want a device to work, quickly, easily and out of the box. But, I also want to be able to challenge it (and myself) now and again by pushing those boundaries. Preferably, without trashing its general usability in the process. Which is why something like Maemo is perfect for me (and maemo 6 might be even more so).

Re: Know thy enemy...

Quote:

Originally Posted by geneven (Post 356130)

Of course there are other factors. I neither said nor implied short time was the only one.