Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Here's a clip from article about long term investing. Part of it uses Nokia as an example. Quite good description of Elopcalypse.


We were already thinking of throwing in the towel on Nokia, but then it announced a partnership with Intel to develop a brand-new, Linux-based operating system, MeeGo. It made perfect sense; MeeGo would not be burdened by the code that had been written for dumb phones. We decided to wait and see.

The old CEO was fired, and Stephen Elop, a Microsoft executive, was brought in as CEO. It seemed that things were getting brighter. However, knowing what I know now, I truly believe that Mr. Elop was the worst thing that ever happened to Nokia and one of the best things that had happened to Microsoft for a long time. Elop announced that Nokia would abandon both Symbian and MeeGo and start making cell phones to run exclusively under the Microsoft Windows OS. With this move, Nokia went from being an Apple-like business that could differentiate itself from competitors because it controlled software and hardware and commanding low-teen profit margins (Apple’s margins are actually pushing the low 20s now), to a Dell-like company with net margins of 5% in a good year.

Though the Windows decision may have benefited Nokia in the short run, in the long run it reminded me what IBM did with Microsoft in the ’80s: it saw little value in the software and went after the hardware business. Cell-phone hardware will become ubiquitous in a few years and Nokia will be competing on price and manufacturing efficiency with its rivals. Microsoft on the other hand will get Windows installed on a huge number of phones, and it will benefit from Nokia’s enormous distribution system. And it only cost Microsoft a billion or two. When this announcement was made the market rightfully punished Nokia stock, and we got out at around $8.

Mr. Elop’s actions have the smell of being a double-agent for Microsoft. He said that neither Symbian nor MeeGo were ready for primetime; by the time they’d be ready the party would be over, and it would be too late for Nokia to have a relevant product. When I heard that I thought, well, he must be right; after all, he is the CEO; he gets to see Symbian and MeeGo firsthand. However, a few weeks ago Nokia came out with the N9, its newest MeeGo phone. What is shocking is that it is an incredible, iPhone-worthy phone. After seeing this phone, Elop’s decision to kill MeeGo-based phones makes no sense.

I try to learn as much as I can from my mistakes, so they don’t go to waste. In this case, I let our success with Nokia the first time around cloud my judgment.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/pyrrh...#ixzz1Tx2rAvRl

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 

Sometimes it's interesting to go back to the first couple of pages of a long-lived thread like this one to sort of... "time travel" and see what sort of things were being said. Why... I remember when I said...

...a little over a year later and there's a PLETHORA of 7-inch to 10-inch Android tablets all over the place, most of them wifi-only. There's even a couple of Apple tablets and an iPod Touch that more closely resembles a pocket-sized tablet (if you can call Nokia Internet Tablets tablets...) among the devices Maemo COULD have had a few years head-start on. It's positively exploded, really. Tsk. :) ...and now there's even these pay-as-you-go or subscription mifi's and other ways to get on the Internet in addition to the readily available wifi I'd mentioned before.

I'm not even sure I can say anything more about this. It sure has been one heck of a year for Nokia.

I'll give him credit... he wasn't wrong. One year later, it's still the same:

"Despite Nokia’s decline and Android’s growth, Nokia still leads in emerging market such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China."

Source: http://www.androidpolice.com/2011/08...re-in-q2-2011/

On the other hand, he guessed that maybe it might not even be necessary to break into a large market like the USA. Now who's blind?

Analytics firm Canalys is reporting that global smartphone market share for Google’s Android OS platform is at a colossal 48%, with an overall lead in 35 out of the 56 countries tracked by Canalys. According to the report, the total global smartphone market has grown by 73% year-on-year with a total of 107.7 million devices shipped in Q2 2011. Android-based devices are the main culprit behind this astounding growth with an increase in shipments of 379% from over a year ago totalling 51.9 million units shipped in Q2 2011. Android sales in the Asia-Pacific region are particularly impressive, especially in South Korea and Taiwan where Android holds 85% and 71% market share, respectively.

In contrast, Apple shipped 20.3 million iPhones and has a market share of 19%, overtaking Nokia’s Symbian platform to take second place in the race for global smartphone supremacy. Apple has also become the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer, racing ahead of Nokia, who has held this title for many years.

What would it take for Nokia to turn things around? Would they even have the humility and interest to listen to people even if they offered good ideas? Maybe this has already happened and they ignored it?

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 

I don't think they can really do anything, at least on the short term. They are effectively locked in the Windows strategy. Switching horses again would shed the last drops of any credibility in Nokia’s strategy. Ovi + Qt platform is already being realigned to cheapo S40 phones. Trying to tell everyone to come back to Meego and stop making apps and services for Indian farmers wouldn’t really work anymore. Boy called Nokia already cried wolf too many times.

About the Anssi article you linked. I read the original long article in Finnish newspaper. Anssi is still cooler than a block of ice. He won’t be any help. Reading between lines, he seems to be totally disgusted about Ollila’s decision to choose Elop over him and what Elop has done to Nokia. He has turned down all jobs offers and concentrates on playing with his iPad and making big investments into Nordic high-tech startups.

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 

I feel like Anssi is a good man, who could have done incredibly good things. I genuinely wish him a far less stressful and pleasant life doing what pleases him--as I'm sure he's smart enough to already do. :)

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 

Really, just S40? Source for this info?

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 

Qt on S40 has been what Nokia made big fuss about couple of weeks ago.

What else are they going to use Qt on? Microsoft doesn't allow Qt on it's own platform WP7. Meego is essentially dead to Nokia and Symbian is being phased out. Which commercial developer would risk investing anything on Qt besides for S40?

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 

was announce on june same day as n9, QT apps will live on s40.

there is also rumors 1ghz 512mb ram s40 touch phone with meego UX.

though there also rumors s40 may get axed. :/

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 

I don't give a rats *** what is the core OS if the UI/UX is the same as in N9 and it works. S40, S60 or "some" linux kernel based os, all fine with me. I really don't care for the OS name. What matters to me and I think for most consumers is the user experience and not the name of the OS.

Re: Lets talk Nokia stock!
 

But if there won't be anything besides S40 products around, then you might want to check that rats *** again. OS matters, if it's the only OS using Qt. Again, from commercial development side. I'm sure there will lots of nice small niche open source stuff for 'whatever' Qt.