maemo.org - Talk - Let's talk Nokia stock!

That's a reasonable question. I bought a lot but at a low enough price I can write it off without crying. Much.

I've lost far more on energy, pharmaceutical and future tech. Thank you, Old Money, for your continued market manipulation and resistance to change!

As for Nokia, let me share a little story. I may have shared before; sorry for any redundance.

In 2002 I was let go from a great job and walked off with over $2000 from my 401k. I dumped it into an IRA and started considering where to invest. We were all still reeling from the 2000 dotcom bust and it had rippled far, wide and deep into tech stocks of all kinds.

Corning glass (GLW) was really beaten down. I saw them at around $1.90 and my interest was piqued. I knew they held significant patents in fiber and exotic glass applications (Gorilla glass, anyone?). I knew the slump would not last forever, and sooner or later fiber to the home was going to happen. So I bought several hundred dollars worth. My gut instinct said to get more but like a good investor I built a balanced portfolio.

By 2008 GLW was over $25 and I cashed in about 90% of my holdings. Cha-CHING!

Then the market took another dump and my other stocks made up for it. And then some.

(The funny part of this story is that my stepfather had 2 million $ to invest in 2003 and I told him to sink a ton into GLW. Of course he ignored me.)

Now here's NOK sitting at that same seductive price point. So I look at it objectively and yes, I see some patents, and yes, I see some cool stuff in the pipeline-- but I'm missing that gut feeling that says NOK is the same sleeper now that GLW was then. Too much has changed. And outside of their Nokia Seimens Networks venture, they're at the wrong end of the business.

If Nokia's prospects don't improve dramatically by the end of this year, then IMO every long holder-- self included-- is screwed. Period.

(PS: I started buying back into GLW at around $8 a share)

I think the reason you feel that way is because you don't really believe WP8 will make it in a market over saturated with iOS and Android. That, and the hopes you have for Jolla.

You may be right. I believe Nokia has hit bottom now. It will lurk there for a while, then WP8 PureView will come and Nokia will start going up along with WP market share. Speculative investors will stay off because they can put their money in other stuff that may produce larger profit at smaller risk. Sensible investors investors will also stay off due to the risk alone, but also due to the fact that Nokia is too large, it still needs to shrink more. It will be a slow walk, but Nokia will make it.

To invest in Nokia now (as an investment), you really have to be sentimental. When we see how WP PureView does it, it will become much clearer.

Jolla is vaporware atm. There are no hard facts that points to anything really. The lack of ecosystem does not look good. Smartphones ARE all about ecosystems, there is no question about that.

gerbick

2012-07-13 01:42

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

WP7 has an ecosystem.

It's not doing that well.

Nokia had an ecosystem.

They were doing sorta well, declining, but better than now before WP7.

Ecosystems are of no use unless they bring the users to the table. That's not happening so far it seems.

daperl

2012-07-13 01:43

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Not Dead Yet: 4 Wretched Companies That Could Make You Rich

Quote:

Nokia (NOK)
Share price decline (2012): -60.57%
Low point (2012): Announces layoffs of 10,000 workers as company market cap falls lower than Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth.
Contrary wisdom: “Nokia is not the company it once was, and it will indeed need to drastically alter the way it operates if it wants to survive, but after digging deeper, I’d have to say this lame duck is worth a lot more than Wall Street is giving it credit for.” — The Motley Fool, July 10, 2012
Odds of Apple-like rebirth: 40-1

Rauha

2012-07-13 01:49

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

This article lists value of Nokia's assets pretty well.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...x#.T_99e5FE7LI

"Based on my valuation metrics, adding Nokia's cash, patents, tangible assets, and inventory, and assuming a breakup of the company into three separate divisions, Nokia is worth $13.9 billion, or $3.75 per share -- just more than double its closing price yesterday of $1.84. If Nokia's patent portfolio sells for as much as Nortel's, you can boost that figure to $4.42. "

Crazy.

lma	2012-07-13 02:44

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Cash is cash, though at the rate they're burning through it perhaps not for long. The rest is worthless until/unless a buyer makes an offer. Patents may be worth something, but inventory!? What idiot would want to buy their unsold Lumias at any price?

gerbick

2012-07-13 03:25

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by lma (Post 1236855)

What idiot would want to buy their unsold Lumias at any price?

My mother needs a simplified smartphone. Might go WP7 for her after all.

lma	2012-07-13 09:29

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Didn't mean that, sorry. Presumably what he meant was a bulk liquidation of unsold stock. Because if we're talking about an HP-style, retail, fire sale, well, they already tried that and almost no one fell for it.

(Incidentally, an HP phone might not be too bad a choice for your mother either)

bergie

2012-07-13 10:32

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluefoot (Post 1236699)

This http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/...or-smartphones consumer survery indicated 0.3% marketshare for Nokia's Lumia range, of the US smartphone market, in Q2 '12. That's 1/3rd of Symbian's marketshare in the US ...

According to Wikipedia, US has 327M cellphone subscribers. Nielsen says about 55% of those use smartphones, and of those 0.3% have Lumias. That would mean slightly more than half million Lumias sold in US by end of Q2.

...unless I miscalculated something, of course. It sounds like a suspiciously low number.

lma	2012-07-13 10:46

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Or Nielsen did ;-)

It's interesting to note that in their stats Nokia is the WP7 vendor with the fewer sales though. What does it say that Samsung is kicking their behinds even in the Windows market? Or that webOS sold twice as many units nearly a year after being declared dead?

bergie

2012-07-13 13:00

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by lma (Post 1236959)

It's interesting to note that in their stats Nokia is the WP7 vendor with the fewer sales though. What does it say that Samsung is kicking their behinds even in the Windows market? Or that webOS sold twice as many units nearly a year after being declared dead?

As far as I understood, these percentages were not for units sold in Q2, but for the total market. So the webOS share shows how many of them are still in use...

bergie

2012-07-13 15:56

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by bergie (Post 1236954)

Asymco was using these figures + comScore and came to 330k Lumias sold in US.

volt	2012-07-13 20:24

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

HP phones, they still exist?

I had a HP phone, running Windows Mobile 6. It received 0 firmware upgrades from Windows/HP, it was more like an old Ipaq than a phone in usage, and it had very limited OS tools.

Going from that to Maemo 5 was like going from a calculator to a [S]laptop[/S] tabletPC. Then going from Maemo 5 to Android 2 was like going from a [S]laptop[/S] tabletPC to a tablet.

At any price, I would buy a Lumia 900. That Any price is somewhere under £80, as opposed to the somewhere over £150 I'd be willing to pay for the N9. Unlocked and without a contract of course. At a contract, I'd not be willing to buy a Lumia at any price.

Cue	2012-07-13 20:31

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

More layoffs
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...bution-centers

Stock back down to $1.84 again.

volt	2012-07-13 20:36

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Why fire everybody when they could fix so much of their deteriorating value by firing one?

- Because they actually do want to trim down the organization, and as soon as the unpopular part is done, they'll bring in a CEO who's good at (re-)building?

- Because they can't admit they chose the wrong strategy?

One of these, I'd think.

volt	2012-07-13 21:13

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Windows 8 is slowing down Lumia sales and Nokia is building fewer Lumia phones for the next months. Nokia's orders from subcontractor Compal are down four tens from May to June. Meaning we've already seen the best Windows Phone 7.x numbers and that it's going to decline until Windows 8.

This despite Nokia announcing their continued push for Windows Phone 7.x.

Source of my source: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120711PD208.html

Nokias failed strategy is just too obvious. I predicted that it would have to be Windows 8 and not Windows Phone 7 that would eventually save Nokia, and that was February 11th, 2011. I predicted that Nokia had just shot it's milking cow and would have a hard time holding on till Windows 8. Might be a lucky guess, but I think I will explain Elops Windows Phone failure like this:

premature ejaculation.

If Nokia had said they'd extend their product portfolio by embracing Windows Phone in parts of their segment while still running full steam on Symbian, stock value would have gone up, not down. It would have shown that they saw their predicaments and secured an alternative leg to stand on. No, they said: NOKIA can't make software, our **** is horrible, DON'T BUY! But remember, we will make Microsoft phones - eventually!

kojacker

2012-07-13 22:00

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

I think if you said on Tuesday that the stock price would be sitting at $1.83, Nokia investors would be relatively pleased. That's because in comparison to freefalling to $1.77 (lowest price since 1994), the past two days the stock price has held up relatively well. However looking at the volumes traded I can't help to see the signature of short trading and options traders again, imo trying to squeeze the last pennies out of the price before the end of next week and the earnings calls.

gerbick

2012-07-13 22:52

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Impressive rant.

volt	2012-07-13 23:34

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

A company can burn off values only so long and still be undervalued. I would say that it was Symbian that was undervalued when Elop decided to set a fire on it. Losing several billions in revenue and stock value and not being able to turn that trend around at all will eventually lead to the actual value being the debt of the bankruptcy.

volt	2012-07-13 23:35

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Oh, and CLEARLY Maemo (both 5, dropped/replaced, and 6, murdered) was undervalued.

lma	2012-07-14 00:14

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by bergie (Post 1237005)

As far as I understood, these percentages were not for units sold in Q2, but for the total market. So the webOS share shows how many of them are still in use...

Ah, that makes sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by volt (Post 1237172)

I was referring to the more recent ones running webOS, which incidentally still received firmware updates long after they were declared dead by Apotheker, and might also get community updates via the recently freed bits. The comparison with Nokia/Elop is very interesting and telling.

Texrat

2012-07-14 04:41

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by specc (Post 1236833)

I think the reason you feel that way is because you don't really believe WP8 will make it in a market over saturated with iOS and Android. That, and the hopes you have for Jolla.

I actually think WP8 can be successful, and as for Jolla, I'm realistic and have low expectations. Let's call it more interest/desire for Jolla.

mikecomputing

2012-07-14 23:23

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

good article here about nokia:

http://mobilesoftware.tumblr.com/pos...ownward-spiral

mikecomputing

2012-07-14 23:31

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 1237292)

I actually think WP8 can be successful, and as for Jolla, I'm realistic and have low expectations. Let's call it more interest/desire for Jolla.

one device from jolla and it will probadly sell well in finland but thats it is my guess. But I doubt nokia ever come back as mobile company. Atleast jolla trying in case of Nokia is just has gone totally ridicilous so I have totally given up on them...

gerbick

2012-07-14 23:49

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikecomputing (Post 1237598)

I have to disagree here mainly because Nokia is still a mobile company, they're just no longer an open source friendly company standing behind Harmattan and MeeGo whereas Jolla is.

Their prototype device has been shown to a few folks, but their device and their OS enhancements need to be something new. And let's face it, Harmattan and the N9's body was very new, fresh but watered down by the Lumia 800/900.

Jolla has a lot to live up to. Nokia has lost their way. I doubt that any Jolla device will sell well unless other key missing components are in place - content, distribution and a good price point.

Let's hope all of the above comes together.

Kein	2012-07-15 06:13

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

I think WP8 will be released in 2013 and it won't come in time to save Nokia. Has Microsoft even shown a running preview? It takes at least 6 months after a preview is shown for an os to be released and this is being very optimistic. At the WP convention MS could only talk about broad concepts which shows that the WP8 is nowhere near ready. Yet MS saw it fit to throw Nokia under the bus by lying that WP8 will be out in fall.

So Nokia will have nothing much to sell in Q3 and Q4. When WP8 is finally released they will still need time to release a WP8 phone. The company isn't in the best of health now with development teams gutted. Other manufacturers like Samsung, HTC and Huawei will beat Nokia to the punch months ahead. So even if WP8 is successful Nokia won't be riding on it.

But knowing MS, WP8 is likely to be buggy, incomplete and missing key features because they have no time to add it in. By then it will be competing with iphone 5, Android 5, BB10, Tizen and maybe Jolla. Consumers prefer something new rather than an os which is just playing catch-up with old versions of ios and Android. And this is the biggest reason why WP8 won't succeed; there is nothing new or innovative about it at all.

mikecomputing

2012-07-15 10:38

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

what are you talk about? Elop has said Meego was not ready thats why nokia did go WP because that is a ready OS? Dont you trust Elop? :o

mikecomputing

2012-07-15 10:50

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by gerbick (Post 1237601)

yeah there is lots of stuff on n9 that we take for granted that we will see on jollas. For example haptic feedback when writing on keyboard. Decent camera. Slim device. Cool UI. Thats why i beleive we only will see one device from jolla bought by entusiasts and probadly alot finns who is angry about how the new nokiaboard had killed an european company.

in case of nokia I didnt mean they will dissapeae but I think they will be very small player on global market. Maybe only europen countrys...

Kein	2012-07-15 11:47

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikecomputing (Post 1237734)

in case of nokia I didnt mean they will dissapeae but I think they will be very small player on global market. Maybe only europen countrys...

It's very hard to be a small player in the smartphone industry. Either Nokia succeeds with WP8 or dies. There is no place for small players here. Even the Jolla CEO admits this.

mikecomputing

2012-07-15 16:48

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

http://m.cnet.com/news/at&t-slashes-...-half/57472577

switch-hitter

2012-07-16 08:22

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texrat (Post 1237292)

as for Jolla, I'm realistic and have low expectations.

Wild unfounded speculation warning

China Mobile were on the MeeGo working group and, from articles I've read, were affronted when Elop pulled the plug.

Imagine if China Mobile are Jollas financial backers, they'd have a HUGE ready made customer base. If Tomi Ahonen's figures are correct China Mobile is bigger than all North American carriers combined.

Manufacturing would undoubtedly be done by companies such as ZTE, Huawei, FoxConn, Compal or Gigabyte so they shouldn't have a problem with volumes.

I've also read, for political reasons, the Chinese government would rather their citizens use mobile phones with an open source OS rather than with a closed source OS from the USA.

I'd really like to know where Jolla's backing is coming from because I think it could tell us a lot about their chances of success.

Dave999

2012-07-16 09:06

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Well, this thread is about nokia stock :)

But I agree, who is backing Jolla is important, and to me I won't buy anything from them until I now for sure who is behind this money.

In jolla case, that is more important to me than the feature and specs. Now, I'm not sure what rules apply to jolla, but I would really like if the openly told us the who is pulling the strings.

kojacker

2012-07-16 14:08

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

If you thought $1.60 was being pessimistic, MKM partners expects it to drop even lower

Quote:

MKM Partners lowered their price target on shares of Nokia (NYSE: NOK) from $2.00 to $1.50 in a research note issued on Monday. The firm currently has a “sell” rating on the stock

NOKIA Stock is Worth Less and Less

Quote:

Shares of beaten-down Nokia (NYSE: NOK) are fractionally higher Monday but according to one analyst there is only on direction for the stock to go... and that is down.

MKM Partners slashed its price target on Nokia from $2.00 to $1.50, while reiterating their Sell rating. The firm cited a recent analysis of communications patent transactions.

"Given the ongoing large operating losses and cash burn, we continue to see all of the value of the company in its intellectual property," said analyst Michael Genovese. "We are updating our view of the value of Nokia’s IP based on our analysis of five patent purchase deals that have occurred over the past two years including the recent Intel/IDCC transaction and Google's purchase of Motorola Mobility. As shown on the table on the next page, these deals suggest an average per patent value of $560,000. Applying this number to Nokia's 10,000 issued patent families results in our new $1.50 price target for the stock."

volt	2012-07-17 01:11

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by switch-hitter (Post 1238106)

If Tomi Ahonen's figures are correct China Mobile is bigger than all North American carriers combined.

Do you need to look to Tomi Ahonen to know this to be true? The North American market is tiny. China Mobile has two subscribers per one U.S. citizen. And they have growth potential, at that.

gerbick

2012-07-17 01:47

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

Quote:

Originally Posted by volt (Post 1238506)

Do you need to look to Tomi Ahonen to know this to be true? The North American market is tiny. China Mobile has two subscribers per one U.S. citizen. And they have growth potential, at that.

Exactly. And I can say that as an American citizen that our market is a weird beast to enter. In fact, I'd say it's not even worth it. That's why I found it odd that Microsoft and Nokia keep trying to make it here.

Make it big elsewhere. Asia, Europe or Africa. You know... the places where Nokia used to sell a lot.

don_falcone

2012-07-17 06:52

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

"According to market-share estimations compared to marketing dollars, it costs nearly ten times as much to sell the Windows Phone-based Nokia Lumia as it does to buy one. Other analysts agree with the low sales numbers."

http://mobile.slashdot.org/story/12/...49-nokia-lumia

gruik

2012-07-17 08:31

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

"It costs $450 in marketing to make someone buy a $49 Nokia Lumia"

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/07..._guesstimates/

volt	2012-07-17 13:29

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

I agree, gerbrick.

However, it seems that the battle for the smartphone market has been mainly fought in US based tech blogs. Everybody wants to win the US market, Nokia apparently made it their goal and strategy.

kojacker

2012-07-17 13:56

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

NOK stock price just hit $1.76. You'd have to go back to September 1994 for the last time the price was that low.

Some more rumour and gossip on possible MS smartphones and Nokia take over - Did Microsoft Hint at Acquiring Nokia? (from SeekingAlpha.com)

Quote:

[snip]...when Steve Ballmer was asked whether Microsoft would start building smartphones, he refused to give a clear answer. He pretty much said "we will wait and see." According to Mr. Ballmer, Microsoft will focus on its tablet first and take it one thing at a time. The fact is that a company as large and sophisticated as Microsoft doesn't have to focus on "one thing at a time." The company can focus on tens of projects at the same time.

Ballmer didn't rule out the possibility of Microsoft producing its own smartphones, he simply said "not now." Why not now and why later? It looks to me like Microsoft will let Nokia give it a try first and it will take the matter in its own hands only if Nokia fails at it. Microsoft doesn't know whether Nokia's turnaround will be successful or not. At this point, even Nokia itself might not know the case. If Nokia fails, Microsoft is likely to buy Nokia and take the matter in its own hands. [snip]

Edit: stock just hit $1.72..
Edit2: Ouch!! Just hit $1.69!! :eek:

specc

2012-07-17 14:37

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!

When are you boozos going to understand that the stock market does NOT govern the companies?

Nokia is still way too large. It needs to slim down, fire at least 1/3 of the rest of the people there, and more factories. When they do, the stock will go down even more, not much but still. Everybody knows this. The ones trading in Nokia stock now are just speculating, from minute to minute. The smallest rumour and the stock goes up/down 20-30 cents. It is not much, but in percentage it is a whole lot of money to be made from this.

Nokia is like a big ship that has run out of steam and is starting to disintegrate. Inside they are building a new ship. It is much smaller, but faster, meaner. more manoeuvrable. It only needs 1/4 of the man power though. Will they be able to finish it before the old ship sinks? certainly, the investors and MS will see to that. What we are able to see is only the old ship falling apart, and sooner or later it will sink. But Nokia will survive.

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