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Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
An anecdote does not a business save.
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Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
Its a great stock to buy. It can only go up with WP8 and their growing ecosystem. I gave my daughter N9, after she lost her iphone. She returned it in 2 hours, saying that word recognition sucks, typing sucks, and its nowhere as responsive and fluid as iphone. So, I gave her Lumia 800 and so a disappointing look on her face that it was not an iphone. HOWEVER, 24 hours later, she loves it for fluidity and ease of use. I am convinced that WP8 will succeed and it will help NOK. This is how fortunes are made. Yes its a risk, but no risk, no gain
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I really don't know how to explain this so you understand, but the thing is, the majority of people investing on the stock market are the cautious kind. They invest lots and lots of money, spread out the risk and creates investments for their customers that has only slightly higher risk than the bank, but also only slightly higher gain. Then there are traders that buy and sell and try to manipulate as best as they can to make a profit. And of course there are private people with more or less success. There are other type of investors accepting much higher risk, injecting money into businesses directly. They can roughly be divided in two groups. One is purely profit driven. They pump up a company so it can (hopefully) be sold at huge profit after a few years. The other group of investors are involved in the industry, the details. They are genuinely interested in creating industries. Typically they are successful entrepreneurs themselves. It's the last mentioned kind of investor that makes the world rotate. All the others are just bean counters. What makes them tick is to succeed in what they have set out to do, whatever it is, money is just a tool, and the profit is just icing on the cake. That's the kind of investors that owns the majority of Nokia. They may of course fail, because the risk is high, but they wont let fluctuations on the bloody stock market influence what they are doing. |
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And it's "bozos". I actually like booze, so I'm somewhat offended ;) |
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PureView on WP8 will show if they are dead or not. I know lots and lots of people are waiting to get WP until WP8 comes, and lots and lots are waiting for PureView until it comes on a WP8. My main concern is that Nokia will do something stupid like launching a Lumia PureView with 21 MP instead of 41, or some similar stupidity in old Nokia fashion (too little RAM, one core instead of two, no bt, no FM, too small battery...). What they need is a flagship that is untouchable for a couple of years. |
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I don't think you understand a public company at all. Can I ask who these investors are, where their money is going and how exactly they are financing Nokia? There has been no leveraged buyout. If these special investors exist then why are there factory closures, sales office closures and mass layoffs? Do you honestly believe Nokia wanted this to happen if it had the financial backing needed to keep them running? It's very naive and frankly stupid to think that the "bean counters" do not matter. Anyway, as predicted last week, stock decrease in the run up to the earnings report. A buyout is a possibility but I'm not sure who would want the baggage other than MS (it's their baggage, a type of third party poison pill), so it may not happen at all. |
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You have to stop thinking stocks, and start thinking industry. The stock market is irrelevant for Nokia, it is of no use to them. There is no fresh cash there. The only fresh cash is directly from the share holders, but as I said, that will not happen untill Nokia has shrunk down to a size that is natural for the new company. They are still too large. |
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It's one thing for a new company to gain investors--they are new. Nokia doesn't have the advantage of being new to attract investors once it gets to the size of a small company. Inertia would dictate that a rapidly shrinking company will either collapse under its own gravity and force, or else a miracle has to happen (ala Steve Jobs, the returning founder, for Apple). While Elop is in charge, it's still much like Gil Amelio at the helm all over again. Will Nokia pull a Steve Jobs or will they continue to "keep the faith" with the current Chief Executive Loser? |
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Yes, it's one thing to talk stock, it's another thing to relate the life and death situation for a company to the stock price. In the situation Nokia is in atm and the distribution of stocks that's ridiculous. You cannot hope to understand what Nokia is doing relating it to the stock market. If you relate it to good old industrial thinking, the situation is much better and there are some system and order in the "madness"
To understand Nokia some prerequisites are needed. Forget about the stock market, the board can do whatever they please, and get a grasp on the industrial situation in Europe regarding manufacturing of HW vs producing software and running services. One last important thing is that Nokia was a dead man walking, lots of life here and there, but with huge chunks of dead meat in between and no means to connect the valuables in any meaningful manner. What should Nokia do? Obviously the old ship has to go, but to be replaced with what? And how to do it while keeping most of the valuables? Well, only the board can answer that. It's not about doing what is politically correct in the blogosphere and certainly not what pleases the stock market. It's about doing what they are capable of, and doing it in a way they feel is successful. They could have chosen different, but they didn't. I think they will do fine. |
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The only possibility for Nokia stock price to grow significantly this year is if there is a bidding war for a buyout. With their current operations and products they just don't present a viable business and the large investors are not dumb to gamble to rise their stock price. |
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With a credit rating like Nokia's it's hard for Nokia to secure any at a reasonable rate even if, as you say, Nokias board are confident that they will grow. If Nokia could secure capital there would be no need for them to shrink. To close Nokia stores for one. The only real investment I've seen is in NSN. Your euphemism, "natural size", is nothing but that, Nokia had to shrink because it has a problem with capital that is a reflection of their performance. Nokia's performance is reflected in the stock market. The only time you can truely say the the link isn't there is when it is highly undervalued or overvalued and that often balances itself out. Nokia's performance is the fire, the stock market is the smoke. The sooner "boozos" like you realise this the better. |
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Consumers are the least problem. Consumers are loyal. I would say 95% of all Nokia users are satisfied, more than satisfied with their Nokias through the last 10-15 years. It's only a load minority of smartphone users that are not satisfied, particularly with the death of Symbian and less than optimal last generation Symbian smartphones, + a tiny group of Maemo users. Consumers are also practical and opportunistic, right now Samsung has better phones, and that's where most old Symbian users go. Old Nokia dumb phones users go for cheap Android (HTC and Samsung) and are not very satisfied, or they chose high priced iOS and are very satisfied, but would like something cheaper the next time. The ones who had gone for Sony (Ericsson's) mid price range are very satisfied, but they typically had Sony Ericsson before also. It seems to me the ones who are satisfied are high end Samsung (exclusively SGS3/2) and mid range Sony as well as iPhone. There is a huge bunch of people with low end Android Samsung/HTC that are genuinely very dissatisfied. The strange thing is that most Lumia users are very satisfied, but let down to smaller or higher degree by the Osborne trick lately (the ones who cares, also a minority). So the fact that Lumias don't sell more is a bit of a mystery. The only reason I can think of is that they have snapped up that something newer is coming, or simply bad timing. I have personally given away several Lumias as gifts to older people, and its strange to see they start using e-mail, MMS, swipe around the device, enjoying it. That would not have happened on a Android. On iPhones, yes, but at 4 times the cost (Lumia 610). I hate everything Apple anyway. When Nokia comes with WP8 PureView they will be back. The first customers will be still going die hard Symbian users and long time iPhone users. Then the SGS3 crowd starts to get bored and jump ship, but that will take some time. By that time low end WP8 devices will be out as well to satisfy dissatisfied low end Android users. So Nokias problem is size and not being competitive. Investors is no problem. Damaged relationship with vendors? what damaged relationship are you referring to exactly? Besides, vendors and sales people are opportunists, they are not sorry assed glum cry babies. A good deal is a good deal, good products are easy to sell and bring lots of cash. When Nokia comes with good products, it will be all smiles. Still, the ultra low end Nokias sell well. they sell well in all regions. |
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No one has given anything that I know of. Investors can be bean counters, but they don't need to be bean counters, that depends on the investor. They need to shrink because they cannot sustain themselves. They have no real prospects of sustaining themselves at the size they are now, the competition from Apple and Google is way too fierce, especially when they have nothing to compete with. The only way for Nokia to survive is to shrink. How hard is that to understand? Nokia was way too fat already 5 years ago due to mismanagement and inefficiency, and things have not improved since then. What is the future of Nokia? It is WP smartphones, S30 dumbphones and S40 feature/smartphones. In addition it is WP ecosystem, maps, music and whatever they cook up; tablets? online services?. But, you HAVE to look at the industry!!!! You have to look at how things connect, you have to look at the food chain, and how it is changing. Producing phones in Europe is a DOA venture, it's impossible to compete with China. Every single European manufacturer has vanished a long time ago. The fact that Nokia all the way up to this very moment have been producing phones in Europe is against the laws of physics, not to mention the laws of economics. A smartphone is a personal device that lets you interact with an ecosystem. That is all a smartphone is today. You may like or dislike it, that is a fact, and it is not going to change any time soon. A phone is just a commodity, a smartphone without an ecosystem is just a bloated dumbphone. On top of the food chain is the ecosystem, that is where the money flows up. Beneath you have devices, OS, services, cloud, and everything that makes up the ecosystem. Pre iPhone none of this existed in any ordered manner. The closest thing was probably Palm with it's smartphones and PDAs. Nokia was caught off guard, and never managed to build their own ecosystem that worked remotely as good as Apple and Google, even though they tried as good as they could. They just couldn't do it. There were no future for Nokia as a phone manufacturer. Everything would be out sourced until there were nothing left. They could not make their own ecosystem. So they joined MS in the ecosystem business while producing devices. Now they are at the top of the food chain together with MS, and they are in charge of their own devices. They are no longer a traditional phone manufacturer. Nokia in 6 months from now is a completely different company than one year ago. What's left are just the bits and pieces that are of value, and it's all injected into WP ecosystem. S30 and S40 is still left, and some Symbian remains. Producing dumb phones is good business. Gradually they will also be incorporated into WP ecosystem, at least S40 will. So Nokia needs to shrink and change. It has nothing to do with the stock market, but everything to do with staying alive in the industry. All that's left now is to see how it goes. |
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Please, this isn't about being economical and moving your labour workforce to China. As if they only just realised this; because it's not just factories in Europe being shuttered. Nokia's sales offices in Chengdu and Shanghai were closed recently and they have almost no Nokia stores left in the UK after selling most of them to cut costs. This isn't trimming the fat or any other euphemism, it's a company performing poorly and collapsing because of it.
You also couldn't be more wrong with this Quote:
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It's no different for the WP7 minority, after all you must have strongly liked something about these phones to join the small minority (more often than not brand affiliation or view, though not always), so often views on a device from a minority are cemented before they even receive the phone and continue on long after. These people are still the minority though. A vocal minority. Amazon review ratings are the same. I remember the Lumia 900 reviews coming in on the day of release. Nobody and I mean nobody mentioned the data connection bug which was quite a prevalent problem. I remember the one person who did and reviewed it 3 stars was attacked by countless other users for having an opinion. What made it worse for amazon reviews? I believe they are weighted. So even if their review had truth to it it gets drowned out by people who click "did not find this review helpful" while rating up the reviews that just say "awesome" 5*. |
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I guess it can be argued if Nokia is in control any more, and if so, to what extent do they have control. IMO that is related to a what if scenario. Nokia lost the battle, they couldn't make a viable ecosystem with nice and easy going smartphones. If they were able to make this ecosystem there would be no WP on a Nokia, that's for sure. Android was an alternative, and I would think that a combination of Android with Nokia services and Maemo would work just fine. But then again what to do with Symbian? Lots of problems pops up. In hindsight the Android alternative start looking terrible with Google themselves heading into HW and competing with price. There are lots of unknowns here. Maybe the major stock holders also have large interests in MS? In principle making Nokia a MS company. By the looks of things that seems almost more likely than not. Pure speculations of course, but MS-Nokia looks like they are very good friends, and that blind commitment (no plan B) is a bit over the top if there is nothing more behind the curtains. It's those main share holders that controls things. If they are happy with the situation with MS, why should we be unhappy? it's ridiculous. |
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
Meanwhile, in NYSE:
Wednesday: bobbing around 1.66 to 1.72, compared to where it started Monday at 1.84, or 2.54 a month ago. At this cent/month delta, $1 in little over three weeks. At a more long term cent/month delta, it's still down 0.5 per month since before the memo. That's approx. six weeks. Nokia is running out of time. Before that, they are expected to present quarterly results below initial expectations, which usually is bad. However, real expectations below publicized expectations is the new standard now, so below expectations can, ironically, still be above expectations and give a short, positive lift. To me it would be somewhat surprising if all of the leadership, the ownership, the strategy and the stock quotes are still in place two months from now. Now's a good time to troll buy advice or tell anecdotes about the long term. It can't be a good time to be an Elop apologist, though. |
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How has Elop not been fired yet... seriously.
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I think this is a followup question to the "How has the board not been replaced yet" question.
To your question I present three possible explanations: - The board knew in advance that it was risky to switch to Windows Phone and that the point of return would be passed before the success of the strategy could be confirmed with Windows 8. Basically an all or nothing strategy from day one. This is compatible with "Plan B is to make Plan A work". This is irreversible. - The board is just too darn stubborn or enchanted to admit failure. This is horrible but still common and can be reversible if addressed in time. - The board don't want to kick the scapegoat CEO before he has cut down Nokia to the size they want to rebuild from. This would be cowardly and cynical but can still be a valid strategy for a huge corporation that finds itself with mainly outdated/ "wrong" resources. I don't think no. 3 could be a main reason, but it can be a combination of all three. |
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...when is the next general meeting for Nokia scheduled? I would guess that the stockholders are not very pleased with current state of affairs...
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Its About 9 month. The Meeting a few month ago. It Has Been Up For discussuin If You Are Reading This Thread.
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They just changed three board members couple months ago at the annual meeting. Including the chairman! Last year they also switched three members. Of the 11 members only two have been there longer than three years.
Elop is the one who should go. Plus maybe from the board also Elisabeth Nelson, who has no real role apart from parroting Elop. He brought her to Macromedia's board as well. Way back when Elop set Macromedia on fire. Her only accomplisment seems to be being part of the pyrocracy. |
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There are very few viable alternatives for NOKIA. They are betting on WP8. Only time will tell and we don't know everything that goes on behind the curtains.
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Well Fire elop would be fun, but that force a much bigger and harder question. What To do then, i think that means more or less death so they are trying with windows and elop two more years and I Do T Blame Them In The Current Situation.
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Generally speaking, if the owners was looking to throw the board, they'd likely not do it on an general meeting, but at an extraordinary general meeting.
The new chairman is prepared and groomed to work with Elop, for a board takeover, they'd most likely bring in someone new who was preinformed. I guess a safer plan is for the owners to bully the board into firing Elop. Or letting Elop talk more in public. |
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As for why NYSE:NOK went up a few cents yesterday this could be speculators buying in the hope that Elop will be sacked soon. When it is clear that this isn't going to happen NOK will crash to $1.50. Those betting Nokia's future on WP8 must realize that Nokia may run out of cash. Forget about WP8 phones this year, it will be 2013. Can Nokia survive another 2 Qs bleeding cash with almost no sales on top of retrenchment payments? Next year some debts will be due and Nokia can't borrow any more as its bonds are rated junk. It doesn't matter even if Nokia manages to push out WP8 phones next year, the smell of death will stop consumers buying. |
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Christ. Nokia has been in the hands of a very few for as long as Nokia has existed. Ultimately they have the last word. They have done much more drastic things in the past than to change the OS on bloody phone.
You people got to stop trolling!!! Elop is hired to do a job, and he is doing it. Nokia will NOT run out of money. MS will NOT buy Nokia. There are no parasites, moles or other evilness involved. This is what is going to happen: Nokia will launch a WP8 Lumia PureView and become King :D Jolla will launch a bug nest with no features, no ecosystem, and disappear after less than a year. (this wouldn't prevent me from getting a device though, if I can get hold of one. Will they even be sold outside China?) I will be happy. You will continue to be cry babies blaming some obscure old lady for ganging up with Elop, exercising voodoo spells upon the Jolla. |
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And let's face it in the unlikely circumstance WP8 does become a success in 2013 Samsung will just ramp up their production of WP8 devices. By that time NOKIA will be so small comparatively they simply will not be able to compete with Samsung's economies of scale. Anybody that says NOKIA didn't have an option except to walk this path only has to look at Samsung to know that's not true. You only have to go back to early 2010 and, in terms of smartphone sales, Samsung were smaller than HTC never mind NOKIA. Now look at them towering above NOKIA who were by far the biggest back then. Samsung are announcing a record breaking quarter whilst NOKIA crash and burn. NOKIA painted themselves into a corner whilst Samsung kept all options open. Exclusively adopting a low-functioning OS that had already proven to be a failure for at least three other major manufacturers was never likely to be a winning strategy and NOKIA's resulting crash is not the least bit surprising. There's very little NOKIA can do to turn it around either now, their hardware is still good but they've lumbered themselves with an OS that most people just don't seem to want. |
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I'd bet you that even when Nokia gets broken and sold in pieces, or worse files for bankruptcy, they'd still be telling that the strategy was right, but Nokia just had a bad fortune... But the WP10 will going to rock the world! I remember when we all laughed here at the famous `step 4 of 5` claptrap as an excuse for not fixing some minor, albeit very annoying bugs, on the N900. Now I long for those days - Nokia might have been slow but they at least delivered something, which cannot be said for Microsoft in the mobile space for the past 10 years. The way it looks, cell phone as a concept will die before Microsoft manages to create a competitive product. Too bad they've dragged down to the ditch a lot of companies that fell for their sweet talk, but the stupidity always comes with a steep price... |
Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
Right now the Nokia stock price is rallying remarkably well. This time yesterday it was trading pre-market at $1.62, and finished the day's trading at $1.73. Right now it's trading in pre-market up 8% at $1.87. In just over an hour's time (8am EDT) is the Q2 announcement, I'll be interested to see how the price moves at that stage.
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It will go up. As usual the analysts will think that the news are very very bad, but not as bad as they feared. Then a few days later they will realise that yes, the situation is just as bad as they feared, if not worse, and the price will drop to even lower levels again.
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Robert Palmer at Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) Eckard Pfeiffer at Compaq Carly Fiorina at HP George Bell and Patti Hart at @Home Jonathan Schwartz at Sun George Shaheen at WebVan John Sculley through Gil Amelio at Apple Bernard Ebbers at WorldCom Kay Whitmore at Kodak John Rigas at Adelphia (so badly messed with the company's money that he ended up in jail) Kenneth Lay at Enron (similarly would have gone to jail if he hadn't died first) Now that I'm looking at such a long, long list.. maybe this isn't as rare as one might have hoped. Hmm? Don't worry for Elop, though. I'm sure he'll do just fine even if Nokia dies off. |
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