Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

It's so many here that daesn't read the reports but reading what news pappers, blogs and copy other writers.

Sure it doesnt look good, but I have seen companies in far worse postion turn around and be succesfull again, so either you are totally unexperieanced when it comes to companies and stock market or you are just here to troll. seems that most of you just don't have a clue what the report means... :D

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Traction, I give it to you danramos, on a silver platter:

Here are sales numbers from two of the main operators in Scandinavia.

Sales in June (only) from Netcom:
http://www.amobil.no/artikler/galaxy...l-topps/111098
WP has 6% of total phone sales (all phones, not just smartphones), up from 3% in May.

Sales in May (only) from Telia:
http://www.cisionwire.se/telia/r/app...droid,c9273142
No percentages here, but Lumia 800 and in particular Lumia 710 is climbing like rockets (from a rather low Febr-Apr launch)

These figures are not entirely representative of the total. Lots of phones are sold off contract. iOS are almost exclusively sold on contract however, so Apple is largely overrated while SGS2/3 is underrated in these charts. There are also several other operators, but they all sell the same phones, so I wouldn't expect large differences. Lumia market share should be fairly accurate.

Similar numbers are found all over Europe, more or less. Finland has very high WP market share while UK has fairly low.

But the trend is clear, Lumias are gaining traction from a rather slow start in Jan-Febr.


Anyway. I don't personally care if WP8 makes it or not. At this point though I would be very surprised it didn't. All pointers point in that direction and now also the sales numbers.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Because I don't like it when people overlook the entire picture just to satisfy their minor, myopic agendas. So I tend to match them.

Take the hint.

Thus the no Plan B discussions above.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

No, I didn't forget. Again this is speculative theoretical nonsense. WP7.X users will be the majority for a long time. New apps will be written for WP7 and can also run on WP8. Gradually as the WP8 user base increases, the most advanced apps will run on WP8 exclusively. Unless the apps have HW demands that require WP8, it will make no sense for a developer to target a minority only, when he can target that minority AND the majority by creating WP7.X apps.

It is not a optimal situation, but the theoretical implications can be made to be much larger than the real life implications. Of course, the closer we get to the release of WP8, more people will hold purchasing. But this is no Osborne effect, this is only natural because people like having the newest bling.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

I don't take the hint. I don't have any agenda. What should that be? I just don't like discussing this an a basis of what some people feel about Elop and the gang. It makes no sense discussing Nokia stock on that basis. It's childish.

I get the impression that most of you want Nokia to go down the drain because of what you feel about Elop and the way he has canned your little toy. And in particular now as this new Jolla toy seems to be available. So Nokia deserves to go down the drain, and you build all your arguments on that basis, refusing to see the facts starring you in the face.

So, who has an agenda here?

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

You are the only one posting based on emotions and pure conjecture with little based on reality.

People do not write WP7 apps because the install base is small, that's the problem. That's partly why they changed to WP8 so that developers "write an app once" for Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8. It was to provide that app developing incentive with them leveraging an instant install base from their PC market. If you think people will now be writing WP7 apps when they were finding little reason to already you are agian delusional.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Of course. 100k apps just popped up out of nowhere. Not a single person wrote those.

What exactly IS your point? Hard to admit you are wrong?

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

What a difference a day makes - yesterday's gains have disappeared for the moment and NOK is currently back down trading at $1.77 again on pre-market.

Also, Fitch downgrades NOK from BB+ to BB-, outlook negative

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

While NYSE isn't open yet, the Swedish and Finnish stock exchanges have the numbers ready:

NOK1V is down 6,19 percent today. Any positive effect from Thursday is gone again. Down 26,64% this month.

NOKI-SEK is down 6,81. Down 29,61% this month.

And from todays news:
Debt rating: "Nokia Debt Rating Cut to Junk at Fitch"
Targets: "Nokia revival hopes fade as analysts cut targets‎"
Also an interesting story about how Nokia invented the iPhone, or something like that. It's time for the afterword.

Source: Google News, 24 hours span, keyword Nokia.

I don't claim to be an analyst but it's pretty easy to see what the analysts think.

What we're seeing in this thread is a Hydra/Troll hybrid, and I am sorry for feeding it it's own heads.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

I think you are also speculating as well.

Let us assume there are 8M WP7.x users now. If these are the majority for a long time to come, then it would only mean that Nokia/MS is not moving the new WP8 device. How long can Nokia last if people are NOT buying the new WP8 devices?

If the majority of your user base is WP7.x and older devices and it will be remain so for a long time, then what is the real advantage for the developer to develop/upgrade the App for the WP8(which IS the minority at this very moment)?

Nokia/MS can pay developers to upgrade/develop App. Let us assume that it can be done with a cost of $100 US for converting(ie. recompile the app, QC, update the user help/guide, delivery setup) an existing App [other professional developers can throw in some realistic man-hours here]. So the total bill for converting the 100k App base(as suggested in your other posts) would be costing $100,000,000. Does Nokia has this kind of money to do so now? By the way, if it would really costing only $100,000,000 to migrate the App base to WP8, MS would have done that already.

Furthermore, I don't believe that Nokia gets a percentage on App sale directly? So, the impact of WPx App to Nokia would be secondary. How long can Nokia wait unit the WPx App are so hot(and must have) that joe/jane(ie. regular people on the street) would buy a WP8 device so that they can run the said hot App?

I have no desire to see Nokia to fail. Many more lives/families would be affected if the Nokia goes down -- and that is really the sad part. Unfortunately, IMHO, the current leadership of Nokia has really painted the company(well at least the mobile business) to a dead corner and there is little hope of getting out of it.

You have a pair of rosy-color glasses on and mine pair is clear with a tint of blue.:)

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

You know why NOK went up yesterday and down today? Simple, yesterday punters were buying in the expectation that Elop will be sacked. When it is clear this isn't going to happen, the price just fell back down. Expect NYSE:NOK to reach $1.50 next week.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Lets not get childish now. I didn't say "there are no apps, lol" but you are misinformed if you think developers are pouring in to develop for WP7. A lot of the popular apps are paid for because the install base is NOT an incentive for development. The install base is far too small.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57...ws-phone-apps/

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

If Elop isn't sacked and the strategy isn't publically revised, I don't see how it can stop falling before the first Windows 8 phone. The next big launch from Nokia seems to be the successor of the Ovi store, and I don't see how that chould trigger much extra income as long as the number of customers is still falling.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

I always wait 1 day after the earnings report (20th in this case). The Hype/Gloom around earnings reports often skew things when there hasn't been enough time to analyse it fully.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

At least my eyes are open, that's what really count.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Gems from specc:

Elop has turned the ship - Then how come the company is still making heavy losses and expecting at least another quarter of losses?

WP is gaining traction: - With 2% global market share?

WP8 will be successful - In your dreams but at the moment no shred of evidence to support this.

Nokia is boosting production of WP8 - How when the OS isn't even finished yet and the phone hasn't been designed yet?

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

The earnings report was out the 19th, that makes today 1 day after.

Tomi Ahonen already gave his first analysis them, and his take on it is "AT&T massive launch marketing blitz achieved" no extra sales. My take on that is selling 600k on a market where they previously sold 600k, that has got to be Nokias most positive development in sales this year. Global smartphone market share down from 8 to 6 percent this quarter.

Frankly, Tomis first analysis didn't have any many new points, doesn't look like the new numbers fuelled him good - we'll see when his "further" analysis is out.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Specc says his eyes are open. In this, eyes open is that he sees something else than the combined world of mobile market analysts.

There's such a thing as too open.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Well, as the saying goes -- time will tell. Let us come back in 6 months and see whether anyone of us needing a new pair of glasses(better grade, tinted or otherwise).

cheers,

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Haven't read Tomi's analysis yet. Would hope to do so at some point today. Thanks for the reminder.

Yep, that's why I always wait till the 20th. It was the 11th when it was sitting at 1.80. I expected it to be slightly lower than 1.80 today but it did go lower than I personally expected and I would never have predicted the 1.50 estimates (Thanks kojacker for providing research here). It seems your "1.40 in a couple of weeks" estimate might still be spot on Volt.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

WP is gaining traction. Lumia 800 is a great phone, much better than any symbian or meego product they had. NOKIA is not a software company and therefore only has two options: ANDROID or WP. They made the right choice, and are undergoing necessary transformation and transition.

The apologists of the NOKIA past arent getting the above, and I wonder why. Is it this hate of Microsoft? Hate of Americanism? Hate of European impotence to produce hi tech mobile product? The hate is myopic and without any vision. Elop is NOKIAs only chance, the Europeans could not have done it by themselves, and that is where the hate stems from.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Down 7%. Shocking!

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

What is it with you and xenophobia? First, according to you, Nokia made "Taliban phones", now Europeans hate "Americanism" and are impotent? The only intolerant and hateful person around here is you and it seems to stem from some kind of inner xenophobia.

How you see anybody as a Nokia apologist is also beyond me because you and specc seem to be the only ones who are defending their actions. Nobody else is defending anything so that makes them the opposite of an apologist.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

WP8 is rolling :D October is the date:
http://www.gsmarena.com/stephen_elop...-news-4545.php

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

[QUOTE=Cue;1240360
How you see anybody as a Nokia apologist is also beyond me because you and specc seem to be the only ones who are defending their actions. Nobody else is defending anything so that makes them the opposite of an apologist.[/QUOTE]

@cue, I think "Lumiaman" was saying that we were apologists for Nokia in the good old days and is questioning why we are not now.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Cheve says what I meant. You have begun to piss on NOKIA since Elop came on board and got rid of dying platforms. Taliban phones was meant in jest= phones that nobody wants but most primitive people. And yes, I do think that there is much more Xenophobia in Europe than in the US.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

What is the current "burn-rate" for Nokia? I read somewhere that it is about 1B per Q, so by the time this thing is launched(requiring ramping up of production, marketing and etc), Nokia may end up with less than 1B in the bank.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

I don't know if your burn rate billion is before or after the newest cuts, but remember that it's very expensive on the short run to fire people.

I get embarrassed when someone call my predictions estimates, they're wild guesses at best :B

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

I'm talking about what sold and what shipped.

Unless you're illiterate, there's nothing about Elop in that.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

It's more like 2-3M Euro. They will at least have 2B Euro left at year end, closer to 3. Additional cuts may improve this further.

Also the Asha touch screen phones are coming, with a new Nokia store by the looks of things. Somewhere around September. Then in October hell breaks loose (for iOS and Android) :D

I am actually starting to look forward to using my WP8 Lumia, surfing this site, banging some sense into the heads of you people :D :p Maybe an Asha on the side :)

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

I see it in a bigger and longer term:

WP8/W8 embedded ITSELFs may very well succes.

For endusers: because WP8 integrates better with W8. (If I get it right thgey both will use same "SDK"?

Also if Microshit make a better embedded development framework for theyr "ARM toolchains" , based on VisualStudio, it may very well harm Android and ofcourse embedded Linux.

Reason: developers and hw manufactors are lazy and in the moment eclipse (for example) is bloated peice of **** in embedded. And if no one comes up with something better Microsoft will take over this area :/

Also setting up a developer toolchain for linux is still complicated beast.

I hink I run oftopic here but back to topic. WP8 itself may take back users and hwmanufactors from Android. But question is if Nokia will win much of this deal... Probadly not. In case of W8 tablets Nokia is probadly already loosing comming battle. Cause there will come atleast 20 different tablets runing W8 Q4.

So still Nokia is doomed...

We could onkly hope that Jolla is Nokoia planB..... Probadly not but...

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Nope, I began to "piss on Nokia", if you can even call it that, since they started making bad choices. Even step 4/5 and Meego. I even understand why they made these choices but I'm not about to cloud my own judgement and pretend they are a success now, clearly the facts show their choices are not helping.It has nothing to do with anybody hating "Americanism". That's just your own "projection bias" rearing its head.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

I'm an American. And xenophobia is not exclusive to Europe.

The whole "piss on Nokia" is because Nokia has pissed on itself.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

The market clearly disagrees, NOKIA has lost hundreds of millions of sales since deprecating Symbian and even now, despite all the damage Elop has done to Symbian, despite the fact carriers in NOKIA's major markets no longer offer Symbian devices on contract or PAYG and despite an enormous marketing campaign lavished on Lumias which NOKIA, M$ and AT&T have all contributed huge sums of money to, NOKIA's Symbian phones continue to outsell their WP7 phones.

That tells us more about WP7 than it does about Symbian. The decline for Symbian was inevitable, carriers and retailers were never going to continue marketing Symbian handsets after they had been announced obsolete by NOKIA's own CEO, but what's the excuse for WP7?

Why haven't the Lumias more than compensated for the decline in Symbian? They've had better hardware than Symbian ever enjoyed, they certainly have a much more stylish design than any Symbian phone we've ever seen, there's been no expense spared in the marketing and yet the sales figures are absolutely pitiful.

As you rightly say the Lumia 800 is a great phone, which suggests the reason it doesn't sell is because it desperately needs a great OS to do it justice - Symbian? Android? MeeGo? Probably even Series 40 with swipe would sell better on the Lumias than WP7 does.

It's clear to anyone WP7 is the problem, even Samsung, who currently have the Midas touch, couldn't make it sell. Neither could HTC, neither could LG.

I hope for NOKIA's sake M$ can get WP8 nearer to the calibre of Android, Symbian and MeeGo or else NOKIA are doomed.

If I were currently part of NOKIA's in house design team I would recruit a few of my colleagues to secretly test out Android, Open webOS, Firefox OS and Tizen on each and every handset in the range in preperation for the awakening - the moment the board suddenly come out of their stupor, regain their senses and realise what a horrendous hole Elop's dug NOKIA into.

The reason NOKIA's Q2 performance wasn't as bad as anticipated was largely due to the feature phone division holding up better than expected but we know in the last few weeks Elop has got rid of the manager there, he's also discontinued Meltemi and so damaged their future prospects too. Looks like he's intent on working his magic in that division too.

As for the cash holding up better than expected did anyone check the creditors and creditor days figures? Maybe they just delayed paying their major suppliers until after the end of the accounting period knowing their cash position would be more likely to make the headlines.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Although I don't believe for a second Elop is a "trojan", I don't think I could have told the difference if he was. I don't think so because it's an unlikely story and, well, the board still keeps him around.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Here's an interesting article about the man who designed the iMac, iPod, iPhone and the iPad.

You may want to pay particular attention to his nationality: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...-the-core.html

You were saying?

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Have some mercy on the troll. It's already so fat. Stop feeding it.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Maybe if we feed it enough it'll blow up.

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

And your point is?

Re: Let's talk Nokia stock!
 

Have you used lumia 800 or 900?