Re: It's over
 

Texrat, I totally agree the Touch is so far unproven (it was only announced 5 hours ago!) but chances are people will love it - the overwhelming reaction to the iPhone 2+ months hasn't shown up any major UI issues, and the Touch is really just an iPhone without the phone! :)

Dodgey screens and other hardware issues are possible, but I'd expect Apple to have learned something from the iPhone (just as Nokia learned the WSOD from the 770) and one would expect them to have corrected the screen problem (which in reality is minor in relation to how many iPhones were sold)...

I'm already seeing people on other forums plunking down $400 (or the UK equivalent) on 16GB Touch pre-orders... this is the kind of reaction that Apple generates without really trying, ordinary Joes salivating over a piece of tech - while it may be hype Apple are able to convert the hype into real, genuine sales. This is horribly frustrating, as I see the N800 as being a platform that outperforms the Touch however the packaging and marketing of the Touch beats Nokia hands down. People wonder why they need a N800 - they just don't "get it" - yet these same people put down $400 for a Touch without thinking twice. Yes, it's all about the marketing but the sugar coated Apple marketing is based on the devices and what they can do - the devices LOOK great (better than the N800) and the UI looks even better, this makes marketing EASY! People are drooling over the Jobs demo, nobody gives a toss when OPK "demos" a new device - he's boring and dull and singularly not well placed to build interest in a product (though I'm sure he's a thoroughly nice bloke!)

It's true that Apple only have a small percentage of the overall CE market, but if you narrow your focus to MP3 players you'll see that Apple own that market (ignoring Nokia and their phones). Apple are by far the largest player (at one point with 82%+ market share, not sure what it is today) - any MP3 is compared to the iPod and usually comes up short (some of the latest iRiver units do well though).

Small market share or not, the Apple Touch will outsell in a single day all Nokia Tablets (770+N800) ever sold. Apple won't kill Nokia, but the Touch will eat into N800 sales for sure.

Re: It's over
 

I'm not suggesting the Touch will kill the NIT, but what it will do it steal NIT sales... most people don't care for xterm on their media player, they just want a media player and a bit of web browsing on the side would be nice. Or maybe they want to browse the web, and listening to some audio would be nice. For many many people this is the common task for portable devices.

Few people want to hack a shell onto their device but fortunately for them there is the N800. For the rest, there is the Touch. The risk is that those people wanting to hack a shell may not prove sufficiently profitable or worth the effort for Nokia to continue in this market. I hope it is, but Nokia face an uphill struggle to grow beyond the geek market and compete with the Touch which is the most obvious competitor.

Re: It's over
 

Milhouse, you nailed it.

Re: iPod touch - not bad
 

or with a meaningful title

Re: It's over
 

Over 110m iPods sold to date according to Jobs in his speech today. Small in comparison to the overall CE market, but a very respectable number of high-margin audio devices sold by a company that used to flog computers! :)

Let's see what the company that currently flogs mobile phones can do in return - no more hints and secrets, time to reveal some tasty upcoming morsels! :D

Re: It's over
 

I highly doubt the Touch will steal any significant NIT sales. It is a media device. A clever one, a technologically advanced one, but a music (oh and video) player nonetheless. We are talking almost totally separate markets, I don't care how many similarities there are-- the differences are too profound. I cannot emphasize that enough. The differences are the critical aspects of each device, the ones that drive them into separate markets and distinct uses.

The N800 death knell prognostications are exaggerated, misguided, and reactionary. They are based on more speculation than fact, and the facts involved are propped with little or no regard for critical context.

The Touch will undoubtedly sell more devices. But it targets a different demographic for the most part, and will pull at most perhaps 3% of those who might have gone for an N800. I'll stake my career on that. Just wait and see. The current iPod Touch bandwagon jumping is, begging everyone's pardon, not much different than the buzz around the N800 at launch. Remember that? ;)

Milhouse, you missed my point. I was referring to electronics devices at large. That also includes computers, of which despite the trumpeting of Apple fans, Apple holds a very tiny slice. Oh, and it includes phones too-- especially multimedia ones.

EDIT: okay, maybe you didn't miss the point but just wanted to keep the argument going. :p

Re: It's over
 

Look at our post count... first to 2000 buys the beers. :)

Different demographics for sure, but very similar functionality (at least, the N800 overlaps the Touch 100%). One will sell by the articulated lorry load to simpletons, the other won't (think: Smart car trunk loads). :)

What annoys me the most about the Touch is that in a different parallel universe, the N800 could have been the Touch and a runaway success for Nokia. I still love my N800 though, and I won't be getting a Touch because it doesn't have Bluetooth (and that's the only reason I won't be getting one).

I still think it would be more sensible for Nokia to leak some of their future plans to keep the scene bubbling than to keep quiet and blow our minds in 6 months time...

Re: It's over
 

Again: the differences, regardless of how few, are paramount.

All the arguing in the world won't alter that, Mil. But I do agree Nokia can do much, MUCH better in communications. However... did you not see the fruits of my labors there? Did Quim Gil come here or not? Is that not a start? ;)

And... Guiness? :D

Re: It's over
 

Just curious, how much is there to steal?

BTW, I actually saw an N800 in a store yesterday on the end of the mobile phone shelf at a major electronic retailer in Berlin. I can't imagine they'd ever sell one of them at that store. Everybody was looking at all the mobile phones / smart phones. Who's going to pick up this giant Nokia and look at it? I can hear it now, "What? I can't make a call?"

Regardless of Apple's size (almost as much annual profit as Nokia and at least triple Sony's), I think it's fair to say the N800 won't steal any significant sales from the iPod Touch. People will go to the store looking for the iPod touch, not the other way around.

Edit: Actually I just got your point. Those looking for the features of the N800 will buy it and not the iPod touch. That goes back to my first question.

Re: It's over
 

I've acknowledged that the N800's market is not as large as the iPod Touch's. At least for the foreseeable future. ;) And as amazed as you may be by this, the N800s DO sell-- look at the growing number of members here for a decent idea (of course that includes 770 owners and some overlap). Even if I knew the numbers, though, I am forbidden to reveal them, sorry. Suffice to say, bottom line, the NITs have been (as I said) successful enough. That is, enough to support future development (just you guys wait).

Your last comment goes both ways. Anyone wanting a true palmtop computer is not going to purchase the iPod Touch. It's a media player. The N800 is more.