IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

"Linux and webOS shipments will struggle throughout the forecast period. Shipments of Linux-powered devices will trend down due to greater emphasis on the Android platform but will not disappear entirely as some vendors will continue to support it."

Link

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Wouldn't be surprised if that indeed is the case. Just do a few simple counts:

How many devices run Android, and how many run Maemo?
How many companies invest in Android and how many in Maemo?

Unless we see Maemo have a similar distribution as Symbian, it will be devoured.

Chomp!

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

'Open Android' would be good.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

What is the combined market-share of the Android investors compared to the market-share of Nokia?

The number of companies thing is a relatively useless indicator. If it were a real factor, the computing landscape would be very different .. How many companies contribute directly to the core WIndows kernel and how many contribute to the Linux kernel?

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/...n_for_2010.php

Nokia's "masterplan" indicates that the number of produced Maemo devices in 2011 will be about 20% of the company's all "smartphones".

By 2013 the share can only increase. I have faith in this platform.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

I've heard the same predictions about linux in general for 15 years.

Even if Android is #1 commercially, it won't stop from a large variety of mobile Linux disto's from thriving. And android with its Linux kernel will actually help this because drivers will be available for hardware.

Looking at n900 there ae still some close components, some drivers and some phone and messaging apps. But the apps could easily be replaced (think FSO.)

More over I am fairly sure at some point android will emulated on linux under X or what not, allowing for use of android apps under other distors. Its simply a matter of time.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

I have faith too, but that's 8 years after the initial Maemo device.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Once Maemo matures (Hoping Maemo6 is Maemo 5 matured and working on n900), it will be a OS not to be taken lightly. For now it's just a kid, hoping to play with the big boys.

I love my N900 to bits and wouldn't trade it for any other device, but you can't dispute the fact that OS wise it's only half finished. I kind of count a proper array of applications part of the OS. It's 2010. It has to work and have functionality people are used to.

If the whole N series line up will be Maemo by 2012, it means Maemo has to start getting lots of love very soon.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

How old is Windows Mobile (counting CE & Co) ?

Maemo has made greater progress in 4 years than MS in all that time...

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

The one thing I am a tad concerned for is that in one of the threads around someone discussed that historically for maemo, Nokia has maintained a 2 platform support for a device... Meaning that say, when the M6 device hits the streets, the N900 should get M6, but when the M7 hits - the N900 will not get that, whereas the M6 device will.

Theoretically this should mean a 2 year support plan for any given device or hardware assuming they release a new maemo every year (which wasn't the case, obviously, from OS2008-M5). However, then in another thread (or same one?) they mention the M6 device is rumored to hit as soon as mid-this year.. which would be less a year. At that rate.. the devices won't get a full 2 years of support.

With the G1 still getting updates being released mid-end 2008, the 2 year mark is coming up. However, it does appear the G1 is going to be left behind from 2.0+ which would mean Android is cutting the 2-year mark close.

The original iPhone released in 2007 I believe got the latest 3.1.2 version of the OS released in October of 2009, which is longer than 2 years from it's original release.

The N810 was also released in '07, and received the Diablo update in 08. AFAIK it received no "major" updates after that, meaning it was more or less forgotten within a year. It also doesn't coincide with the mentality of "2 OS's" per device, as it was shipped with OS2008 and went to Diablo, but Diablo was just OS2008 with enhancements. Not a complete new OS, and of course - M5 is not available for the N810.

Granted, this is all speculation and just pieced together from various threads I've seen on the forum here. This is the only reservation I have about Maemo and the N900. While definitely not enough to prevent me from buying the device.. it really makes me interested to see what Nokia has in store for the N900 in the future, and how well a constantly moving Maemo will hold up to Android if Android continues to patch older 1.5-1.6 even with 2.0+ out.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Nice to see a good discussion, and I admit that you all make some good points that I did not think about while posting. Having said that, I do have some thoughts...

jaark, do you want to compare Nokia and Google? True, Google don't have a large presence on the smart phone market, but they are just starting...

Also, what is this stuff about the "core Windows kernel"? I think that comparing hardware and software companies is flawed logic... Instead of Windows, you should say MacOS.

c0rt3x, I have hope but not faith.

Do you all think that Nokia would be where it is on the smartphone market if it had a single phone model for each Symbian version?

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

I'm pretty sure Nokia is bigger than Google? Or has google overtaken nokia in 2009?

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

How old is Unix? Matters none.

Fast moving market, they should have established themselves by now. Android is how old? And it's market share is doing what?

Stay on topic. I was talking about solely Maemo. Thanks.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Google is huge, at any rate. Google, not Android. And they're agressive.

WinMo was mentioned. Windows Mobile hasn't gotten anything going for itself in a lot of years. But I can't honestly say I think they've been trying very hard. Now, Android. Consider where Android was three years ago.

Android has a lot of momentum. A lot. WinMo has none. Maemo has some.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Rising

..Also rising

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

It depends on how you measure size. I am no economist, so I may be wrong. I just looked at "Market Value", here:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/18/...00_MktVal.html

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

toyota is number one selling car, yet I do not buy a toyota.

methinks that with the projected numbers of smartphones in the future there is PLENTY of room for multiple OSes.

This is not winner take all. Maemo will live long and prosper, as will Android.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Nokia is a much bigger company than you think.

I was pointing out how flawed your argument about number of companies 'investing' in the android platform was. By 'investing' I took to mean having a direct role in producing so that would be Google, HTC and amsung (maybe a couple more smaller players) vs Nokia. I was pointing out that the number of companies directly involved does not really factor in many circumstances.

Each model does have an almost unique version of Symbian, with things customised and optimised for the individual device. There is nothing in Nokia's history to suggest that major Maemo versions will be unique o a particular hardware release - that wasn't even the case with previous NITs, the 770 had several OSs (and then the community supported 'Hacker Edition') as did the N800 and N810.

This is the first iteration of moving Maemo onto this class of device. I'm pretty sure that they went through similar rapid development and growing pains when they transitioned their high-end phones from whatever they called the software that ran the 'feature phones' to Symbian based smartphones.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

I do think he underestimates Maemo, but can't say his wrong either.
If there is a company who can make it looking the marketshares, it's Nokia thought.
I would say it really doesn't matter how many devices there is, but again good thing to remember here is that Maemo won't be alone in the future as it got friends from Symbian Foundation that probally will keep it's number one status till Qt loving Symbian^4 comes out.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

The only reason why the Iphone 2G is still getting support is because it has identical hardware as the 3G, apart from 3G of course. It will be interesting to see what happens after summer; if Iphone is ever going to support multi-tasking, then the support for the older models has to be dropped.

Keeping the same software for a wide range of devices either unables to make use of the new hardware, or slow down the older ones with the new power-demanding improvements - both of these cases can be experienced with the Iphone family.


As for Android, exclusivity deals is to blame. Some OEM:s, like SE (which supports various platforms unlike Motorola, which is devoted to Google nowadays), didn't have a choise but 1.x in 2009 - yet some Motorola devices had 2.0 already at the time.

Actually it's SE:s fault that their prototype (X10) never became a consumer-friendly handset within reasonable time - but still, with 10s of devices announced for 2010 with older initial versions still to be released, support can't be dropped.

As of the exclusivity deals, I really wonder what Google offered to satisfy all bigger players (including PC OEM:s) but Nokia, Apple, Palm and RIM.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Market value isn't everything. If you look at sales, profits and assets you will find that Google isn't a superstar in these areas.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

I am not talking about many OS-es on the same hardware, I am talking about the same OS on many devices. This is what makes the OS better, imho. And this is what Android has and Maemo doesn't.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

the way that android is structured, it is basically just an application, so yes, it will run on just about anything.

In the future crafty devs could probably run android inside of maemo or iphone as an app.

I don't think google really cares about that prospect, but if i were a device manufacturer, i would be worried if my devices were running android and then there was an app in ovi store to run android on your n900 if you wanted

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Yes but you're sort of missing my point.

3 years ago Joe Schmoe bought him a new shiny iPhone. 3 years later, Joe Schmoe has not been forgotten by Apple. Just because the iPhone happens to suck is irrelevant because the world, US in particular, has fallen in love with the iPhone. The fact the N900 will cost me as much as the original iphone, plus an upgrade, had I purchased it originally - you would hope for same kind of love. Which is nearly guaranteed not to happen.. I think 3 year support for the N900 is outside anyone's best guess at this point.

See the N900 is a complete overhead to me, it doesn't save me money because my monthly payments stay the same. It would allow me to switch providers without breaking deals if I wanted - but thats pointless since it's hardware only supports T-mobile 3G anyway. So honestly - there's no benefit for me other than the fact I want maemo. So I am legitimately and completely curious to see if the N900 still gets updated in 2 years.. or if it follows the N810 and ceases to receive any attention at all after september of this year. And I am quite sure you can look through bug reports, and already see fixes being marked as "in harmatan". Excuse me? Fremantle is out 4 months and already bugs are being delayed to the release of M6?

It doesn't really matter what you blame it on, or where you point the finger, or try to justify it. The fact is they are still getting support from somewhere. Where will I be with my N900 next year? The year after?

Likely on my own, much like the n800/N810 owners of the forum currently. But, I know this before I am buying the device.. and will still be buying it assuming M6 isn't out by the time I can afford it.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

This is where python/PyQt comes in. An app developed in PyQt should run on any device running on any hardware that also has support for Python and QT.

Just like Android apps will, at this time, only run on devices that are supporting/running Android.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

if i get 2 years of full support (all os updates and upgrades until the end of 2011) then i am content. Because thats pretty much my phone life time any way!
And in 2011 i want to have a dual core arm processor in my phone.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

True.. but the big operative word is if.

Has there been an official Nokia announcement to the fact that for certain the N900 will get M6? That would ease my mind a lot.

Right now, M6 is already generating a bit of buzz and the N900 is only 4 months old with M5. That is not comforting, to say the least, unless Nokia has gone on record to say "Don't Worry N900 buyers, you'll get M6 too!".

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

eh, i honestly think the iphone will die down, why you may ask due to people like new!!! so therefore maemo and android will blow up like fourth of july...

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

There is far more to a company size than its gross market value: http://www.interbrand.com/best_global_brands.aspx

Why does it have to be dropped? My ancient Nokia 6600 still happily multitasks, and the 1st gen iPhone, hardware wise, can eat it for breakfast.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Here is my take on the smartphone / mobile market and Nokia / Maemo:

Apple:
When Apple introduced the iPhone the established handset makers were sleeping on their wheels. Apple (with marketing and hype) successfully conquered the high end smart phone market, created an integrated Apple ecosystem (iTunes, app store), and many customers love it. The iPad is just another attempt to increase the Apple ecosystem by trying to establish quasi standards for content delivery (iPod for music, iPad for books and magazines). This is especially true for the US markets and less so for overseas markets.

Google:
With established handset makers still sleeping or too slow, Google realized that there is a danger to their business model (=delivering effective targeted ads via the web). In the rapidly growing mobile market Apple's closed ecosystem could lock Google out of the ad market by accessing internet functions via specific apps instead via a plain browsers (think face book app, twitter app, youtube app etc.). Google brought Android, which was better suited for touchscreen devices than Symbian, Win mob or other OS'es for smart phones.

(Palm is irrelevant because its minuscule market share, RIM is mostly a North American email phenomenon and not really a threat to Google).

Coming to Nokia:
After taking a hefty nap they finally woke up.

Symbian is wide spread and powerful, but in its current versions outdated and difficult to use. However they have a huge installed base, and there is no reason why Symbian should not be able to be updated and upgraded and become competitive with Apple / Android. Nokia is right to invest heavily into Symbian, albeit they are a bit late.

Maemo:
I guess Nokia is surprised by its relative success in the market place with the N900. This might have been really just thought as another iteration of a niche tablet, however users (and then Nokia marketing) pitched it as a competitor to the iPhone.

Here is where it gets murky:
Maemo needs a lot of TLC from Nokia to develop into a mainstream success. The phone applications are missing many functions and are not up to Nokia phone standards. Ovi maps (Maemo) are at least one generation behind Symbian.

However, the browser is second to none on smart phones.
This is good news for Google, as it diminishes the necessity for many specialized apps that the iPhone needs in order to be useful.

How will Nokia execute from here? They have a couple of choices.

Here is a realistic one (and I hope it is not the one they choose):
They set all their energy and talent on Symbian, and make it a great OS thus banking on the huge installed base. Trying to move customers from one Symbiam device to vastly improved Symbian devices. This leaves Maemo right in the corner without lot of attention.

Here is my preferred one: The convergence strategy using QT works and they position Symbian for the low and medium range, while they position Maemo as the mobile computer OS. This would mean Maemo gets a lot of attention and a stream of updates and upgrades.

I do not know what Nokia will do, and I do pay more attention to their actions than their announcements.

So far I cannot see that Nokia really invests a lot of TLC into Maemo. The firmware update for the N900 fixed some essential issues, but left out many necessary functional improvements. Free Ovi maps / turn by turn is not available yet for N900 and not on the roadmap (last I heard).

And lastly, if Nokia wants Maemo to be successful there needs to be a steady stream of updates and upgrades, which can only be delivered by using agile development principles. If they do waterfall and wait until Maemo 6, then I fear IDC's prediction might become true.

Just my personal thoughts ...

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

If you look through the presentation they made to the financial community back in december, Nokia has already positioned Symbian to the midrange and lower, and Maemo as their "no compromise" platform.

Back in December the financial community did not believe Nokia's strategy but after today's profit and growth figures, mainly in the smartphones segment, Nokia's shares rose 10%.

For more about the Dec presentation check out my post here:

http://talk.maemo.org/showpost.php?p...9&postcount=16

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Thanks, I just looked at your insightful post.

I really hope Nokia executes well on Maemo. They need to move fast as the competition (especially Android) is moving very fast. I am still not convinced that they do all they can to make Maemo successful. Here are some ideas (might have been discussed elsewhere):

- Make beta-firmware freely available for testing using a mandatory sign in / waiver process (as it will brick devices!).

- Establish a monthly rhythm for feature upgrades (does not necessarily have to be firmware, could be stand alone applications and enhancements to these applications).

- "Leak" potential features from "Maemo Labs" (<= does this exist?) using blogs, youtube, twitter, whatever.

- Release some accessories for the N900 and use releases to create some buzz about N900 / Maemo (dock, Nokia branded blue tooth (hi fi) speaker system, ...)

- ....

I really hope Nokia executes to make Maemo really successful. As I wrote in my earlier post I pay more attention to Nokia's actions than to announcements. Words are cheap nowadays...

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

While I would not mind seeing any of your suggestions, I think that they would represent a decision by Nokia to avoid growing the Maemo market. My worry, every time I hear Nokia talk about Symbian, is that they view Maemo as strictly a test bed. They don't many phone models running Maemo because one or two will do (e.g. I suspect the N900 has a keyboard because of their N800/N810 experiment).

The problem is that Maemo may be and may continue to be Nokia's test lab. Any insights it provides will be fleshed out and polished in the Symbian world. For Linux geeks it won't really matter. Others might not want to live on the bleeding edge when it comes to their phone.

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

webOS , is the best platform , if it wasn't the app catalog that dosen't work everywhere :mad:

Re: IDC thinks Android will eat Maemo, nom nom
 

Any bleeding edge products will be a test bed. However relegating Maemo to "strictly a test bed" when Nokia's top management have publicly stated to the financial community Maemo will make up 10-12.5%of total device sales seems frivolous. Do you really think they would make such a statement to a notoriously conservative financial community, and then keep the platform as "strictly a test bed"?? They might as well just resign from their posts today, because they would be made redundant within a year or two unless they follow up on their intentions and statements. Although they may have been late to the party, Nokia's top management are not fools. They're aiming to sell around 6.75 million Maemo devices in 2011. They are betting on Maemo for the top end segment. Of course they may fail, but I believe they will put in a lot of effort to make it happen. They have also stated they will focus all their product lines. This implies few devices in each category under each OS. At least that's my reading.