Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...ets-worse.html

Tomi Ahonen, one of the top mobile gurus in the industry, is warning about a dotcom type bubble for App Stores, and offers some numbers using Apple's. Check it out, very interesting read.

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

Wait a sec... I thought those "*B downloaded" numbers also include updates?

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

It's a good read indeed.
Thanks for the link.

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

cheers, very interesting.. i thought thered be easy money there...

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

Interesting read. I don't agree with all of it though. But it does coincide with my belief that alot of apps should really just be web apps. It's absurd to think that a company would have to develop an app for the iPhone, one for Meego/Symbian3/Maemo, one for Windows Phone 7, one for Android, one for Blackberries just to hit all the target markets.

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

I am glad you guys liked it!

I just gave it another read; and there are points the analysis Tommi presents that could be argued over (always happen when you work with statistics); but I think the point to be made is that this; like previous gold rushes has been; it is only going to make big money for a few; and the ones that are going to profit mostly of this are the "tradesmen" selling "shovels" to the "gold explorers".

Off course, it is smart for anyone to start getting interested in apps, gaining experience; etc; but it is going to be hard to base an entire model of business around apps only. At least, for now.

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

great read. Thx.

Is he paid by nokia?

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

Imagine how few new apps we'll have once the N900 ovi store bubble bursts :)

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

This is the start of the dizzying and meteoric rise of the N900 app, I suppose.

Bubble my arse.

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

do Apple charge a listing fee like Ebay?

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

yeah, they take 30% of your gross

not only that you have to buy a mac to dev on and regiter and pay $99 per year

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

Very interesting read. Much appreciated!

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

Nope. He used to work at Nokia, he worked for an Apple partner, among others. I think his CV and references are in his blog. Feel free to post on his blog and he will answer you.

I remember a presentation Craig Barrett from Intel gave in my university in my last year there. There was a slide about the dot com bubble; in a carthesian diagram (two axis). It showed the amount of money invested versus the amount of money made (or something like that); and it showed the huge amount of cash being spent; then the steep downfall and then a slow, but sure growing up to now.

I think that is what may happen to the App stores; the bubble will pop; but eventually profitable models will emerge and they will slowly climb to be a stable revenue source.

That would/could explain why Nokia is not so worried as to having an uber App store now; but instead lying the foundations to cover as many platforms as possible in their foundation (through Qt) and build up from there.

Time will tell.

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

Standard population collapse, no? Too many participants (app stores) fighting over limited resources (developers, users) resulting in a fallout and reduced population. Likely this will take OSes with it, or will result in fewer stores per OS.

Chances are we'll see non-Google App Markets die off, Moto and Samsung's proprietary OSes will be undermined, and if MeeGo takes off its AppUp model (common back-end, vendor specific front-end) may take hold (doesn't hurt that Qt gives it a good degree of platform independence.)

With luck this will result in handset providers having hardware marginalized and focus less on lock-in and more on providing services (say, free services for handset buyers available to a fee for non-owners?)

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

I don't think the dotcom bubble comparison is accurate. They're similar only in that (anything) new generates hype in the beginning, before it slows down and generate a more steady incline (whether up or down).

One big differentiating factor between the dotcom bubble and this proposed AppBubble is that the dotcom boom was fueled by investors with no direct knowledge of the market, whereas the app developers have a direct link and feedback from the market; so that they get quicker read of the market and can (if they want to) make the necessary corrections.

The underlying variables to boost this spincycle up:
- Increasing # of potential customers (if you stick to lowest common denominator; in requirements)
- Increasing skill and experience of developers (lower cost, higher quality)

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

Actually, even though the Apple store may be bubbly for developers, it is still very good business for Apple. (*) Point being, I'm quite sure Nokia does care about the revenue they're not getting right now.

(*) And for all those small development houses who can charge $15k-$50k per app from their clients...

Re: Tomi Ahonen predicts an App Store hype bubble
 

I think that, right now, fueled by the hype there is people (be it developers, companies, investors) thinking "there is gold in those phones" and are blindly jumping in the hype without further consideration of better ways to spend their money.

Mind you, I don't think it is going to be so huge as the dot com bubble; but when the music stops, a lot of people will not have a chair to sit on.

There is a developer testimony in the comments, which is also very interesting, check it out by Colm McMullan.