Gartenberg's Mobius Talk
I won't hide that I am a long time member of Mobius, a private group primarily sponsored by Microsoft composed of tech enthusiasts/bloggers. MS holds an annual meet-up and invite interesting speakers to talk about the mobile industry, tech trends, and the future. I got invited to the group in 2003 when I was still running ClieSource, an enthusiast site for the once popular Sony Clié Palm OS PDA.
I wasn't part of this year's event but for those interested, Jason Dunn posted a summary of what transpired ( here). I'm posting this since I found Jason's summary of Michael Gartenberg's (of Interpret) talk ( here) really interesting. Here's a copy Jason's notes of Gartenberg's presentation based on research: - Global Perspective on Converged Devices - Mexico 79% wants converged device, only 29% in USA, 25% in Japan. The more developed countries are OK with having multiple devices.
- In 2012 connectivity will be ubiquitous.
- The Kindle model was a huge breakthrough in the model of how connectivity can be integrated - there's no monthly fee for the customer, it's part of the purchase cost of the product
- The Kindle model has significant DRM problem; limited downloads per book, multiple downloads trigger download errors
- Technology should be used to unlock new business models, not to protect old business models
- Pandora and Spotify can't exist much longer - they don't make enough money to pay for the content that they're using, and consumers aren't willing to pick up the slack
- Apple hasn't moved into the subscription music business because they can't get terms that are favourable to them
- The phone market is still up for grabs - Motorola phone use is 24% in the US. iPhone? Only 3% world-wide, HTC 1%
- Carrier dissatisfaction? 72% of people like their carriers. It's not as awful as the digirati makes it out to be
- Companies are changing in role - Apple is moving from the home into the workplace with work -email and productivity, while RIM is moving from the business market into the home with better Web-browsing, communication, entertainment and media
- Consumers thought that, on average, $171 is the most appropriate price for their future handset
- There is no market for $500 devices - no significant market at least
- The consumer is not being driven by media centricity; it's the reliability durability of the phone (34%) unless it's an iPhone then only 20.4% care about it. 31.2% care about the shape/physical design of the phone, unless it's an iPhone then it's 14%
- Younger generations listen to more music on their phones
- 87% of teens own a mobile phone, but only 56% of them own MP3 players
- Consumers show a preference for short-form video rather than full-length movies
- 30% of consumers prefer free, advertising-supported video rather than paying
- Where do consumers go for content? 44% use iTunes, 32% of Limewire, Kazaa, etc. 14% go to Amazon.com
- What's driving the file sharing experience? 33% say it's because it's the easiest way to access digital songs, episodes of TV shows, and movies. 31% say it's because they can't afford to pay retail price for the entertainment
- Back in the day, when Palm OS was as its strongest point, 2/3rds of users had never installed a third party app. "Power Users" had installed 10 apps on average. 2-3 apps per device. iPhone and iPod Touch? 2 billion apps divided by 50 million total devices...50 apps on average per device
- Why do consumers pay for apps? 53% say because there's no free app that do they want
- Apple dominates the digital audio player market in the US: 26% Nano, Shuffle 15%, iPod Video15%, iPod Touch 14%, Sandisk Sansa 9%, Sony Walkman 7%, Creative Zen 6%, Microsoft Zune 6%, Samsung Yepp 2%...
- Apple controls the message, tech journalists parrot what Steve Jobs says
- You either seize the opportunity, or cede the opportunity
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