As if ASUI tries to blank the screen but then come right back. The pulse seems to be at maybe 5-10 second intervals.
/var/lib/alarmd/alarm_queue.xml. seems to hold two events, one from the sequetary calendar, and one for the hildon update notifier.
Ok. May be red should be a bit further and orange middle point (see below why) If you take [%battery remaining]/[Active hours left] instead, you'll have an instantaneous discharge rate more useful for the applet. Notice that when the device is in use the discharge rate is never lower than 10%/h and the maximum discharge rate I've observed is 50%/h. The transition points could be gray<15.4%, yellow 15.4%-<22%, orange 22%-28.5%, red >=28.5% (points relate to 6.5, 4.5, 3.5 active hours). That's simpler than any decaying timer.