Thread: Nokia shares dive after sales warning
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bobh is offline bobh
2011-06-08 , 13:33
Posts: 62 | Thanked: 62 times | Joined on Jul 2010 @ New Hampshire, US
#103
Originally Posted by ericsson View Post
Then you should learn to read
I don't do well with "word salad". Makes my brain hurt. So sue me.

That poorly organized companies that grow up like mushrooms, surfing on some "new" wave of techhnologies, sooner o later fals down when that wave starts loosing its momentuma, is nothing new, and certainly not more typical in the IT sector than in any other sector.
Was Digital "poorly organized"? Wang? At one time both of those companies were at the top of the heap in their field. Suddenly, a few years later, they were gone. They failed to appreciate the impact a new technology would have on their business. They were executing just fine, but on the wrong things.

MS is trying, I will give them that. They seem to be making an effort to catch whatever the next wave is. Maybe it will work, maybe not. It sure is expensive though.

You may argue that MS and Nokia both are mushrooms, but the point is that Nokia is the archeotypical example of the opposite. MS have shown by now that they will survive.
If you would learn to read, you will find that I am not arguing that MS will go out of business. I am saying something different, that they will have the fate of IBM. Which is to say that they will continue to exist and make profits, but no longer be the "golden boy" they had been. Others will lead the market and MS will be an "also ran".


Another point is that neither MS or Nokia need to revolutionize anything. They only need to do what they are good at.
What is MS good at? Really they seem to only be good at desktop software for PC's. Their other ventures by and large have not panned out. They are lagging in search and in embedded systems, areas where they were talking big growth potential, and where others have seen big growth.

They have not shown any real talent for mobile devices in the past. Which is why WP7 is a make or break for them. If it fails, they they will be done in that market. It is moving too fast to just keep trying over and over like they did with XBox. Even MS doesn't have that much money.

Nokia on the other hand is making a huge gamble. The best outcome is that WP7 is a big success. But if that happens other vendors will start using it as well (I don't think they have an exclusive deal with MS) and Nokia will have no differentiation. They will be just like HTC. They will still exist, and probably make a profit, but they won't be the same Nokia they have been. That's the best case.

Worst case is that WP7 fails. It will be much harder on Nokia than on MS. I suppose they could always go back to rubber boots. Would you consider that a good outcome? That would be "survival", right?
 

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