Flash's *.swf SDK is open source, so you must mean the closed source plugin only.

I can create a *.swf from command line easily.

And yet... you can't control your source like you can with Flash via HTML5 (read: everybody sees your code in HTML5, precompiling can be worked around).

And obviously, with HTML5 being a non-standard as of yet - hell, 4.01 isn't even a standard fully - you think that we'll have universally, non-fragmented playback for everything you may be able to do in HTML5?

Quick answer... not for a long damn time. Saying otherwise is a crack fiend's hope. Webkit != HTML5. It's just a way to view it.

AS3 is based off of ECMA-262. A standard. It's created by Flash, but also open source IDE's and SDK's. And if you wanted to, you could export out *.swf's via open source means. It's the playback that's controlled by one group not named W3C.

Meanwhile, you have faith in the HTML5 standard. I'm actually using it and can tell you... the best HTML5 examples are mostly jQuery examples at one form or another.

I'd suggest a new vector of attack. You're quite wrong in too many places to be taken serious by me on this on. Let's just say you dislike Flash, but for a lot of the wrong reasons and a lot of oft-repeated, and very wrong information.