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#136
Originally Posted by ericsson View Post
Usually you are quite reasonable, but this is all just a load of something smelly. OK, time for some facts:

* In general people don't care about OS
Disagree. But I'm a developer... I got targets.

* International business != local business
Erm... where did I contradict this? Because as it stands, WP7 is local to me, foreign to damn near everybody else.

* Every business is a roller coaster, it goes up and down
Never said otherwise. But as it stands, the declines for both Nokia and Microsoft have been almost 5 years and 10 years respectively. That's just down.

* Nokia is in it for the long run
They say they are... but losing share to the point where they're back to numbers they've not seen since 1998 or so, that's not good.

* Nokia plays on lots of horses and it's the sum that counts
With Symbian being dropped, the funding for MeeGo dropping... the push for WP7 increasing and it's not exactly a blockbuster seller itself... I'm not seeing where this is a multiple horse bet. I see the eggs being placed all in one basket. Not good.

* Nokia did not loose several opportunities in the recent past, but in hindsight it looks like they did.
Quite incorrect. In fact, I'd say downright delusional. Handheld MID's were the precursors to the new tablets - iPad, Honeycomb, et al. They could have set the pace for internet tablets because they were first. They did not capitalize. In fact, they're no longer a player in the field whereas they were the only ones. And if they come out with a tablet now, it will not sell. Period.

They missed out.

* Nokia is not alone in the mobile business and cannot win all battles, also they have no control over innovations and disruption done by others.
Then innovate more. Or sell more. Losing share constantly since 2007 is not how a business stays afloat.

* No one can control a disruption and the results of it. It is a super high risk venture that no one does unless they have no other options available, or is completely new in the industry. It is certainly not something a market leader will enter into.
Never said otherwise. But constant innovation would have pushed aside these things. Not the case in Nokia's choices. They didn't see the trends, they didn't create the trends, instead... they sat on top of some seriously innovative stuff and didn't market, didn't push it, didn't take advantage of it. Case in point... Maemo. Harmattan was probably possible years ago, but Nokia had to innovate under pressure to get to where it's been done now. Proper funding, some serious talent could have done that in one form or another a couple of years ago and we'd be dealing with a MeeGo/Maemo device that has an ecosystem for the lemmings, repositories for the geeks.

Didn't happen.

* And finally - MS-Nokia cooperation is about the ecosystem.
US Business != Global Business. Zune Marketplace isn't even in all of the areas that Nokia sells their stuff. How will they get updates? Do not confuse the XBOX LIVE network with what WP7 needs for updates. Not the same.

I have a WP7 phone. It updates via Zune. Thank goodness I'm in the US. Otherwise, I'd be almost SOL.

Apple had nothing to lose, but a whole world to win.
Apple is a better marketer than most. They haven't pushed out crap that won't sell since Lisa and the Pippin. Now? They try to create a market for their stuff by using incredible marketing. Steve Jobs is the modern day PT Barnum. Learn from him.

Google had nothing to lose, but a whole world to win
They broke the mold... didn't want old *** Symbian, didn't want to use iOS, didn't want to be a slave to anybody. Made their own ecosystem, made a way to push their services to the end user on their phone(s), gave people access to their Gmail accounts and ultimately you have an OS that does: services, e-mail, music, browsing, searching and plays ads that are all culled from the aforementioned usage of services, music, e-mail and searches.

Pretty damn genius. Too bad Nokia didn't do that... not in the same way. They're not Google.

Nokia had a whole world to loose and nothing to win.
This kind of thought is why Nokia is ****ing up. They had everything to lose, but didn't keep on a path where they were ahead of folks. The world caught up, Nokia just sat back, pointed at how "We have the largest share!" and didn't really do crap but release crap phone after crap phone while touting them to be "high profile phones" whereas they were getting passed by feature phones that were now being labeled as smart phones... and guess what? People bought into that.

And how did Nokia continue to respond? By saying nothing at all.

Yeah... real damn smart.

Add this to the fact that a disruption is a completely uncontrollable event once it starts rolling, only then can you start understanding what is going on and what Nokia is doing now.
Funny thing about disruptions. As much as you never know when the next one is coming about... you have to be fast enough to turn with the stream/tide/rush/whatever and innovate within that madness.

Google did. Start to look for other heroes in these ever-changing times. Nokia had an ace... waited to late to play it. It's a new game now, those cards are no longer useful. Start again, be more focused or get the hell out of the way.

Sometimes in business you have to start from point zero.
Bingo. Problem is... they are already making the same wrong *** decisions. Kill something that's closer to being released than your intended product? WP7 ain't ready for Europe. MeeGo is. Release it, bolster its release with support, make it Plan B when Plan A (WP7) is ready. Until then, you've announced and (yet again) released absolutely nothing.

That's typical Nokia. That **** doesn't play now. Announce, ship quickly, update and give people the perception that they'll be supported, innovate and have your new stuff in the wings... force the consumers to update once they feel as if they need those new things. Not when Nokia drops support, makes you feel like you've been forgotten and you're ready to go up in arms against anything/anybody Nokia connected.

Nokia needs Neo-Marketing 101. They're too damn old fashioned, it doesn't work any more.

To get there might kill you, but if you don't try you are facing certain death.
The fact that you think Nokia isn't staring corporate death right now is pretty damn amazing.

In business this means tear everything down, get rid of all the parts that is not essential to stay alive, keep and strengthen the parts that can be used in the future, restructure and build new alliances and new teams. Only then are you in position to head into the new and disrupted reality.
And guess what? Some folks believe that Microsoft is not the people they needed to form any alliance with to create a secure future and rebuild down this ever-weakening path. And I say this as a Microsoft stock owner, former MCSE/MCDBA - WP7 isn't ready for primetime. I say that as a current WP7 phone owner.

It's ready for the US. It's ready for Canada. Europeans will piss all over the WP7 when it comes out. Why? It's so damn limiting and doesn't fit their concept of how they should use a phone. Worse in Asia. They might burn WP7 phones in effigy there.

By God, this is exactly what Elop is doing. One may even argue that he is not doing enough of it, but this is impossible to know unless we have all the fact that Elop has. But know this, Nokia has done this several times in the past. If anyone knows how to do this, it is Nokia. Elop is not alone in this, he is just one person in a large team. Still, they may fail, but that's business.
Argue what you want... what Elop is doing is going too deeply down a path of only one option for a company that needs a wider range of options to fit their typically wide portfolio. And with what I said earlier, WP7 doesn't do that. It doesn't cover the S40 level and it doesn't make the MeeGo/Maemo folks happy. More options better exist very damn soon.

And you are talking about the size of the screen on HTC devices, evil Microsoft, no-good WP, stupid Elop, evil Elop, trojan horse Elop. Please.
I'm loving my 4.3 inch screen on my HTC HD7S. Microsoft evil? Never said it. Elop evil? Never said it.

I don't see why evil pops out of people's mouth so damn easily. Evil is relative to good... so who's good?
 

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