Nokia lost US$1.4 billion in 2011. Symbian sales are falling in double digits every quarter. The crazed Elop won't sell N9 in all markets. Sales of dumb phones are dropping as users switch to smartphones and their profit margin is thin anyway. So you expect Lumia to charge in and carry the day?

Let's get some perspective. Europe is WP7's best market. Despite huge promotion and incentives and banning N9 from competing with WP7 it only sold a dismal million units if Elop is to be believed. N8 with a sunset Symbian os sold 4 million in its first quarter. Lumia will have a harder time outside Europe as the rest of the world doesn't care about WP7. Overall WP7 has a global share of less than 1%.

Slapping a Nokia label on a WP7 phone isn't going to make any difference. There is no hardware, software or price breakthrough in the Lumia. Why should users start loving WP7 just because of the Nokia name? As a brand name Nokia is not even cool or trendy. It is like what Volvo is to cars - dependable but boring.

I expect Lumia sales to be depressed outside Europe including the U.S. Maybe Nokia can sell a few million a quarter overall. In 2 quarters Nokia will be on its knees looking for a white knight to save it.