maemo.org - Talk - View Single Post - Let's talk Nokia stock!

specc	2012-05-13 , 21:09
Posts: 322 \| Thanked: 218 times \| Joined on Feb 2012	#1225

Originally Posted by Cue

You are right it doesn't take an analyst but clearly the analyst who did this research did so pointlessly then. My main point was that the survey itself is both obvious and misleading to what possible actionable intelligence it provides. Windows 8 is an anomaly on that list since it doesn't state WoA, so people will confuse it with the x86 variant (which I assume was meant and what the survey expects you to infer). It's the only x86 OS listed in the survey. It's akin to a survey asking "what bike do you want" then listing a number of bicycles and one which people associate with a popular motorcycle. Different market, different needs, different price, it makes the survey pointless because these already exist yet do not really compete with the other. What actionable intelligence does that sort of comparison provide? yes it may show an interest in motorcycles but it didn't take a survey to show it. Nor does it prove a stronger interest in motorcycles over bicycles.

Basically you cannot come to any conclusion from this survey. It's pointless.

I think the main point here is that Android and the latest version, ICS in particular, seem to be the perfect OS from most peoples point of view, "ordinary" consumers and geeks alike. Whatever MS cooks up now and in the near future, it is already too late, it is already irrelevant. We have seen that with the Lumia 800 in Europe the last 1/2 year.

No one really dislikes WP or the Lumia, it's a great product. It just doesn't offer anything that you don't already have on an Android device. The Android device in the same price range offers more. Apple will soon have to reinvent themselves, but as of today WP is too early to really snatch the bulk of Apple users. Early adopters of the iPhone like the Lumia 800/900 though, and with the 610 and future devices I would think Nokia could catch and hold on to a decent market share, say 10-20 percent if they are lucky.

Google though, is more like a force of nature. They will be untouchable as the market share leader for a long long time. At some point Nokia would have to make Android devices as well unless they are satisfied with 10% market share. But then again, maybe Nokia will be satisfied with those 10 percent as long as those 10 percent gives a decent profit. Going Android means no profit unless you are Samsung.

What is preventing Google from going desktop? Well, nothing it seems I remember when mainframes like Digital and SGI ruled for everything but office and gaming. It was almost impossible to believe that rubber band powered PC's running MS Windows would take over, but they did. I see the same thing happening now. Even though it's close to impossible to believe that a tablet type of device can in any way replace a true gaming PC or CAD work station or even office desktop, that is the way it is headed. The synergy between hardware and software that pushed things forward existed between Intel and MS. Now that synergy exist only between Android and ARM based hardware. You may think that an ARM based PC cannot compete with the advanced, complex and high performance Intel X86, but IMO they are already there. The difference in performance and complexity between an SGI work station and a 486 based PC was much larger than this. Android and Atom may also work just fine.

A long rant, but I mean, there is nothing noble in fighting the inevitable. ICS may not be perfect from all angles, but it is better than anything that has ever existed before, all thing considering. Android will lead the way and shape the future, but as it gets bigger, the paste will be slower. Other smaller OSes will be able to catch up, like iOS and WP, and may live as profitable niche products (or not).