maemo.org - Talk - View Single Post - Let's talk Nokia stock!

	zwer	2012-05-19 , 10:26
	Posts: 455 \| Thanked: 782 times \| Joined on Nov 2009 @ Netherlands	#1328

Originally Posted by specc

WP larger than iOS Seriously

http://www.gsmarena.com/wp_reportedl...-news-4268.php

To quote myself:

There is no way for any non-Android smartphone to snatch 7% of the market in two months in China for new sales. For the totality of the market, 7% is even ludicrous to consider (with estimated 300M+ smartphone owners 7% would make at least 21M, which is more than the amount of WP devices sold by all manufacturers world-wide since its inception). I cannot find Q1’12 stats for China atm. but even if we go with the data from Q4’11, you can see how large of a number is 7%.

In Q4’11 there were 32M smartphones sold in China (Canalys), 7% of that would be 2.24M. Further, the expected growth for the Chinese market for Q1’12 was 13% (Chinese New Year ‘n all that) according to IDC, so one can estimate at least 36M smartphones sold in China in Q1’12, of which 7% would be 2.52M, which is almost the amount of WP phones sold world-wide by all manufacturers in Q1’12 according to Gartner. If you take into account that the world largest mobile carrier, China Mobile (~67% of Chinese subscribers), is not selling any WP devices atm. 7% for the WP would be crazy to even consider possible.

The claim that the WP is trumping over the iPhone on the Chinese market is also wishful thinking – there are more than 15M iPhone users on China Mobile (which doesn’t offer the iPhone, btw.) alone who are forced to use 2G and happily do it, still – that’s way more than 7% conjured by whoever gave that nonsensical estimate. Even with new sales taken into account only, there just is no way for that number to hold its own.

What might, and just might be possible is 7% of China Telecom (selling a couple of WPs including the Lumia 800c) new sales to be WP – that would land it somewhere in the 300k-400k range – which at least sounds achievable, unlike the original claim in all its grotesqueness.

Oh well, I guess the WP fans could use some 'good news', even if it bores little relation to reality - it works for religion just fine, and I swear to your favorite deity, the WP fans sometimes remind me more of an occult sect than of technophiles, under the assumption they are not being paid to spread the gospel of Metro and the second return of Microsoft, of course...

Originally Posted by danramos

You DO realize I pointed out the HANDSPRING TREO (LONG before there was a Palm Treo 650) there WAS a Handspring Treo 180--which pretty much came out about the same time as the Nokia N7650. That's without bringing up the Handspring Visor's wireless data cartridge modem back in 2000.. effectively making it more like today's smartphones (minus the voice) since most people seem to forget that their phones can ALSO make calls.

You DO realize that Nokia had a device with installable apps, voice calls and even a 'full' web browser (quite limited for today's standards, but it still rendered HTML pages of the time) in 1998 - the famous Nokia 9110 - right? Further, in 2000 Nokia released the Nokia 9210 - the first Symbian Nokia phone starting the s80 line, I think, with a color screen, vastly improved web browsing, and all sorts of enhancements - I remember drooling over it when it appeared, but had to settle with the 7650 later on as the 9210 was a too damn expensive for my financial situation back then.

Nokia was quite ahead of the pack in pretty much every area, and they were restless, scared-to-petrification of Microsoft entering the mobile arena and rendering mobile manufacturers into cheap OEMs, or having the giants suffer the IBM fate, enough to push half of their earnings into Symbian development and forge deals with their arch enemies just to keep Microsoft out of the game. Oh, what an ironic fate awaited them just ten years in the future... From a company whose employees almost unanimously shared a deep hatred for Microsoft - of which even the most outlandish Linux zealots could be envious and which I have never seen in any other company/group/whatever - to proper, obedient and well trained Microsoft biaches...

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Last edited by zwer; 2012-05-19 at 10:30.