View Single Post
Posts: 322 | Thanked: 218 times | Joined on Feb 2012
#1802
Originally Posted by Texrat View Post
That's a reasonable question. I bought a lot but at a low enough price I can write it off without crying. Much.

I've lost far more on energy, pharmaceutical and future tech. Thank you, Old Money, for your continued market manipulation and resistance to change!

As for Nokia, let me share a little story. I may have shared before; sorry for any redundance.

In 2002 I was let go from a great job and walked off with over $2000 from my 401k. I dumped it into an IRA and started considering where to invest. We were all still reeling from the 2000 dotcom bust and it had rippled far, wide and deep into tech stocks of all kinds.

Corning glass (GLW) was really beaten down. I saw them at around $1.90 and my interest was piqued. I knew they held significant patents in fiber and exotic glass applications (Gorilla glass, anyone?). I knew the slump would not last forever, and sooner or later fiber to the home was going to happen. So I bought several hundred dollars worth. My gut instinct said to get more but like a good investor I built a balanced portfolio.

By 2008 GLW was over $25 and I cashed in about 90% of my holdings. Cha-CHING!

Then the market took another dump and my other stocks made up for it. And then some.

(The funny part of this story is that my stepfather had 2 million $ to invest in 2003 and I told him to sink a ton into GLW. Of course he ignored me.)

Now here's NOK sitting at that same seductive price point. So I look at it objectively and yes, I see some patents, and yes, I see some cool stuff in the pipeline-- but I'm missing that gut feeling that says NOK is the same sleeper now that GLW was then. Too much has changed. And outside of their Nokia Seimens Networks venture, they're at the wrong end of the business.

If Nokia's prospects don't improve dramatically by the end of this year, then IMO every long holder-- self included-- is screwed. Period.

(PS: I started buying back into GLW at around $8 a share)
I think the reason you feel that way is because you don't really believe WP8 will make it in a market over saturated with iOS and Android. That, and the hopes you have for Jolla.

You may be right. I believe Nokia has hit bottom now. It will lurk there for a while, then WP8 PureView will come and Nokia will start going up along with WP market share. Speculative investors will stay off because they can put their money in other stuff that may produce larger profit at smaller risk. Sensible investors investors will also stay off due to the risk alone, but also due to the fact that Nokia is too large, it still needs to shrink more. It will be a slow walk, but Nokia will make it.

To invest in Nokia now (as an investment), you really have to be sentimental. When we see how WP PureView does it, it will become much clearer.

Jolla is vaporware atm. There are no hard facts that points to anything really. The lack of ecosystem does not look good. Smartphones ARE all about ecosystems, there is no question about that.