maemo.org - Talk - View Single Post - Let's talk Nokia stock!

specc	2012-07-19 , 22:25
Posts: 322 \| Thanked: 218 times \| Joined on Feb 2012	#1907

Originally Posted by cheve

IMHO, it is traction to death.

Correctly me if I am wrong, Apple was selling their iStuff at $200+/each during their 1Q of introducing the iStuff. Nokia is selling at a lost(by all account) per unit almost right at introduction. Both iStuff and the now WPx may be considered as the 'new' un-proven device at their respective time. How long can Nokia keep on selling these 'popular' WPx phone?

We all now Nokia is losing money, that's in the numbers that came today. Let's take one thing at a time.

They sold maybe 3-4k Lumias in the US at no profit, but they sold 3.5M Lumias at profit elsewhere, Europe in particular. IMO they could have cut prices also in Europe, just to get more Lumias out, but they didn't. The reason must be that they have not set up to produce more because they are setting up production for WP8 as well. 6M lumias in the first 6 months of 2012 is a good number, but I'm sure they would like a much better initial response than they got.

Besides you cannot compare US contract prices with off contract prices elsewhere (or on contract prices elsewhere for that matter). In Europe it is normal to pay only a token Euro for a phone on contract, but then you have to pay each month and are locked to the operator. If you pay off contract, you pay the full price of the phone, but are free to use whatever operator you chose. The total sum will be roughly the same, but often the operators push certain phones with heavy cuts, free months of use etc. Whatever, it is the total cost you have to look at, not the contract price.

Right now it looks like the existing Lumia range will be phased out (from the initial markets at least) when WP8 devices are coming. At least the 710, 800 and 900. The 610 will probably go on for a long time (my guess).

Another thing. The numbers today show that Nokia will have 2-3 B Euro at year end. This means they can continue for much longer than the doomsday prophecies here have predicted. With further cuts, this can be extended much more. All in all, the finances seems OK. No bankruptcy anytime soon. There is no sign of Plan B, so Nokia smartphones lives and dies according to how well WP8 will do. The numbers also shows that Nokia still is the largest handset manufacturer in the world. The main point is whatever happens (to existing Lumia sales) from now and until WP8 devices are available really makes no vital difference, not from this day. The ecosystem is up and running, the distribution channels are up and running. More sales will boost the ecosystem of course and more sales is always better, but from Nokias point of view, more sales are not needed to stay alive until WP8 devices comes.