maemo.org - Talk - View Single Post - Let's talk Nokia stock!

cheve	2012-07-20 , 14:31
Posts: 362 \| Thanked: 143 times \| Joined on Mar 2008	#1930

Originally Posted by specc

No, I didn't forget. Again this is speculative theoretical nonsense. WP7.X users will be the majority for a long time. New apps will be written for WP7 and can also run on WP8. Gradually as the WP8 user base increases, the most advanced apps will run on WP8 exclusively. Unless the apps have HW demands that require WP8, it will make no sense for a developer to target a minority only, when he can target that minority AND the majority by creating WP7.X apps.

It is not a optimal situation, but the theoretical implications can be made to be much larger than the real life implications. Of course, the closer we get to the release of WP8, more people will hold purchasing. But this is no Osborne effect, this is only natural because people like having the newest bling.

I think you are also speculating as well.

Originally Posted by specc

WP7.X users will be the majority for a long time

Let us assume there are 8M WP7.x users now. If these are the majority for a long time to come, then it would only mean that Nokia/MS is not moving the new WP8 device. How long can Nokia last if people are NOT buying the new WP8 devices?

If the majority of your user base is WP7.x and older devices and it will be remain so for a long time, then what is the real advantage for the developer to develop/upgrade the App for the WP8(which IS the minority at this very moment)?

Nokia/MS can pay developers to upgrade/develop App. Let us assume that it can be done with a cost of $100 US for converting(ie. recompile the app, QC, update the user help/guide, delivery setup) an existing App [other professional developers can throw in some realistic man-hours here]. So the total bill for converting the 100k App base(as suggested in your other posts) would be costing $100,000,000. Does Nokia has this kind of money to do so now? By the way, if it would really costing only $100,000,000 to migrate the App base to WP8, MS would have done that already.

Furthermore, I don't believe that Nokia gets a percentage on App sale directly? So, the impact of WPx App to Nokia would be secondary. How long can Nokia wait unit the WPx App are so hot(and must have) that joe/jane(ie. regular people on the street) would buy a WP8 device so that they can run the said hot App?

I have no desire to see Nokia to fail. Many more lives/families would be affected if the Nokia goes down -- and that is really the sad part. Unfortunately, IMHO, the current leadership of Nokia has really painted the company(well at least the mobile business) to a dead corner and there is little hope of getting out of it.

You have a pair of rosy-color glasses on and mine pair is clear with a tint of blue.