I think they still have a pretty good chance of making it.

What they're sitting on right now is a great story and a great publicity opportunity for those who comes out to help the project out. The project has caught more attention from the mainstream media than any other kickstarter projects and even right now they've broken quite a few records already.

Moreover, they've taken the stance of the underdog.

Everybody roots for the underdog.

Edit: those number crunchers in media placement departments will know that a positive publicity in supporting the Ubuntu edge will worth a few hundred K or even in the millions. It's just a matter of time to take advantage of this. They will come in the last minute as knights in shining armor and will be recorded in history on top of getting their free publicity along with their Ubuntu Edge order.