I wonder if it is still possible there is a bookkeeping delay between the shipping notice and status after actual shipping. I remember some people receiving packages before the status changed to Shipped. So I'm not sure we can completely trust the order status at least.

Then again, people have reported receiving tracking numbers separately, but I wonder if those can be delayed too or even not sent in some cases, even though the package has been sent. Maybe some packages are on their way and the recipients don't know it yet? That would certainly not be unprecedented in the history of web shops.

Anyway, I think we can trust Paid status meaning "no, we are not putting stamps on your package yet". In Picking is the requisite sign of some activity.