Much sooner than that. The bulk of the market is cheap 20-40$ phones and Nokia already has difficulties to stay competitive compared to chinese manufacturers... no wonder when China, with a home market around a billion, is a bigger market than the US, Europe and Japan all together. The top of the market (smartphones) is evolving rapidly with Nokia sitting on a valuable but obsolete platform (symbian), an new competitors entering the market (Apple today, Chinese manufacturers tomorrow).