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Benson's Avatar
Posts: 4,930 | Thanked: 2,272 times | Joined on Oct 2007
#81
Originally Posted by allnameswereout View Post
Polls suck. Push polls suck even more, but there are grey areas between the two.

Here are some reasons why polls suck:

They're used to sway opinions. They assume people are honest in their answer to polls. People aren't even able to vote sincerely in a Plurality system on D-Day e.g. due to strategic voting. Why would they vote sincerely in a poll which bears no legal consequences? Because they're Christian, and God taught them not to lie? And I'm a Jehova...
Well, one of the big reasons for non-sincere voting (practically the only one) is that there are consequences; Vote for the guy you like, and the guy you hate will thrash the guy you mildly dislike.

In a poll, it doesn't work that way; there are secondary ways to game with polls, I know, like trying to persuade your opponent that to sit on a "lead", but they're much less prevalent.

The primary outcome is seeing your candidate do better in the polls, so you're most likely going to vote for your candidate. Especially on the ones that ask your vote for each of a series of possible pairings, so in each case it's a pure two-candidate race, and there's no issue with "do I help my real candidate or my practical candidate?".

They often lack options which contributes to swaying opinions. Take this very thread. A) Several candidates are excluded B) There is no blanc option C) There isn't an option to state one is not eligable to vote (e.g. minor, non-US citizen). Although it doesn't applt here they often implement the Plurality system which, arguably, doesn't allow the voter enough freedom to express their opinion.
In fairness, C doesn't apply here because it was not meant as a prediction of election results, but as a measure of the itT crowd, including those who were ineligible to vote. Would it be wrong to try to predict the election outcome with this? Well, only about a half-dozen different ways! That doesn't invalidate it for it's purpose though...

Maybe I'm a one-trick pony here with my election methods, but I don't see polls as being that big a problem. Are they unreliable? Yes. (Some are decent, but assume they're unreliable unless you know the methodology, the whole questions used, etc. Then, if they're clean, assume they're semi-reliable.) But they're nothing locking us into a 2-party system. It's the voting system, the whole voting system, and nothing but the voting system.