In my tests on the N800, the Moblin apps were much, much too heavy for mobile processors, which is why I think they pulled the plug on their MID branch for 2009. They just couldn't get a lightweight suite of apps together fast enough.

That leaves Android and Maemo.

Android is backed by a big, popular company, and they're willing to play all the lockdown games that the US carriers like to play, so I can see it making big headway in the smartphone world. Because it can run on other, non-phone devices as well, I can see it making some headway in other markets too.

Maemo is the oldest, most experienced platform of them all, and it already has a great community and a real push to get the whole platform into the OSS light (thanks Stskeeps!). When Mer is mature enough, I can see it running on lots of non-Nokia devices, maybe even the very MIDs that Moblin was targeting before they dropped the ball.

Beyond this, who knows? Nokia has traditionally struggled in the American phone market because they don't really play the carrier lockdown games; maybe the new generation of Maemo devices, by creating a new category between smartphone and MID (or maybe by combining the categories -- hard to say, having not actually seen any hardware), maybe the new devices will pry open a new niche that Nokia will dominate.

I think Android will continue to compete quite well in the existing product categories, and Maemo will forge ahead into new categories on new hardware...

One thing I'm sure of: 2009 will see no winners. The economic downturn has slowed the pace of technological development, and I doubt we'll see any clear winners in 2010, either.

Funny, the list didn't mention everyone's iFavorite smartphone.