That's client side. If you're only looking at client capabilities, Flash only caught up with the capabilities of the QuickTime 3 plugin about a year ago.

What put Flash where it is today was a creation tool that was fairly inexpensive, readily available, and most of all, easy for designers--not programmers--to use. HTML 5 will need something similar to gain ground on Flash.

Macromedia's been absorbed, Adobe has reason to keep Flash dominant, and Microsoft is busy trying to create an alternative it can control. I'd like an open source solution, but it has taken a long time for the Gimp and Inkscape to get where they are, and they're still pooh-poohed by most designers.

I'm hopeful that HTML 5 will win against Flash in the long term, but I expect it will be a slow, hard fought battle.