That timeframe is well more than one year. It will be months before the next Maemo device is out, and there has been AFAIK no word on how it will integrate with a store-like distribution model (Ovi?). So, from where I'm standing, I don't see a calculation is possible (you might be right and Maemo might explode for commercial games, but business-wise, that's quite a gamble at this point). IMHO Fremantle (considering all the changes Harmattan will bring) is hardly the final consumer OS that will make it happen (and Harmattan is much, *much* more than a year away). Also, you CAN change the distribution cost of a game post-release to adapt to market changes (unlike game quality which is as is).