It may depend on the demographic and geography. Anecdotally, I'm noticing more and more young adults going to pay-as-you go once they're off mom and dad's plan. Longterm plans by large providers only really make sense these days under certain conditions, such as a need to travel, conduct business, etc. I'd wager most 20-somethings don't need anything more than PaYG... and if so, the numbers will reflect that soon enough.