Mike,

As always, I enjoyed reading your very eloquently expressed opinion. You make some good valid points. And I think you are probably correct, in the short term. Long term, while harder to see clearly, I think things are going to look quite differently. I think Gartner is actually correct in their estimation of the market with a 2 year projection. What I think you are failing to consider is that the market is not a static pool. Yes, the iPhone was able to capture a good share of the hip semi affluent population. But, Android, and in the future Maemo, will expand the market to people who would have never consider getting an iPhone. It is already happening with Android. In fact it is about to explode. In the long run I see Android 1st place, Maemo 2nd, and others fighting for the niche markets.