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Posts: 1,366 | Thanked: 1,185 times | Joined on Jan 2006
#312
Originally Posted by christexaport View Post
Symbian is about as dead as any OS that owns half of the market. I have to call some of the shadetree analysts out. You can't quote singular analyst reports and news headlines as reliable sources. It takes heavy scrutinization of the data and a knowledge of the markets across the globe to get it right.

It took Apple's record-breaking growth for two straight years to get just ~15% of the global smartphone market. In one year, Android has a huge ~5%. At that pace, and with Symbian able to hold its 50% share, and a new UI coming soon, and with the fifth most visible brand in the world behind it, and with African, Indian, and Asian markets loving it (besides the US, those are the main growth markets for mobiles), and with a mature core, I wish the competitors luck.

The fact of the matter is that outside of the US market, Android and the iPhone are minor players. They're heavily leveraged in the US, and a disruption like a new Symbian on carrier shelves alonside a new WInMo could have an effect on the both OSes.

Maemo can't replace Symbian, nor can iPhone. It won't run on the cheap hardware needed in the developing markets of Asia, Africa, and India. Its a strictly high end offering. We're geeks, but not everyone can afford a $500-700 device. Symbian is too versatile and expensive to be ditched.

The issue is product development. Carriers, ODMs, OEMs, etc. can't waste budgets making devices for an OS that will be revamped soon, so only the incumbents, Nokia, Samsung, and SE, are making devices now. Once Symbian^4 is hardened, more device manufacturers will join in making hardware, and we'll see the same growth we see in Android with Symbian^4, and not starting at 0%, but at 30-40% marketshare.

So while Andriod is battling WinMo, RIM, and the iPhone, Symbian will reconquer the world. Maemo may take some of the traditonal Symbian ground, but both will eat at the competition, while complimenting each other. Symbian isn't going anywhere, but will be a conduit for Maemo devs to sell code.
Christexaport is on the ball here. I dont understand any of the market opinion that Symbian has no future. I also think that Nokia have been a lot smarter than any of the nay sayers have us believe. The issue for them is not about iPhone or Android growth in the high end (yes you cant deny what's happening there), but how do they maintain a revenue stream that is impressive any way you measure it. Its easy for us sitting outside of the boardroom to tell them to jump ship, kill it, move one, but I bet if anyone of you were in that boardroom you would not take the risk.

Compare and contrast this with the VW Golf or Toyota Corolla. pretty boring for sports cars enthusiasts, but you don't mess with a seller.

Just look at how the E71 has over taken the blackberries, the E72 will be a big hit. The N96 is a top notch candybar and they WILL sell shed loads of X6s and N97 minis and the open sourcing of Symbian is already bringing more OEMs on board.

What Nokia have done is to maintain that revenue stream, while introducing Maemo to take on the high end, and to bring on Qt to build out the apps ecosystem. Both Maemo and Symbian will benefit as a result.

And just to close on the subject of this thread. Why the N900 because the N900 will benefit from the huge vol of symbian devices that are already out there and will continue to be out there as Nokia's plan plays out in 2010.

Mike C
 

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