This assumes that mobile computing is a zero sum game--i.e., that one OS can only survive by "killing" all the other OSs. But look at the desktop PC environment during the 90s and early 2000s. Even though Windows dominated the PC market, both Mac OS and the Linux desktop survived in niche markets.

Right now there is obviously a huge amount of R&D that goes into making mobile devices, and the companies that produce them are understandably keen to secure a return on their investment. But eventually, as I see it, handheld devices will become as cheap and ubiquitous as netbooks, thus undercutting the current subsidy + 2 yr contract deals that U.S. telecoms offer in order to make the hardware seem cheap enough.

BTW, I'm old enough to remember the days when a home laser printer cost several thousand dollars --- and now they can be had for < 100. I'm also old enough to remember when laughably underpowered laptops were $2000-4000, or when portable CD players were $300. My first 2 MP digital camera was almost $1000. That the mobile market is already starting so low shows you how cheap hardware has become.

In the mobile arena, I think you'll see the following:

1) Android will dominate. It will be installed on a variety of "generic" hardware, just as Windows was installed on every conceivable PC in the 90s. IMO, Android is going to eat up Symbian's market share.

2) Apple will continue to cater to a market that likes highly polished products and tight hardware/software integration. Except that that market is larger now than it was in the 90s.

3) Mobile Linux OSs for hackers will thrive as a geek phenomenon. Perhaps Maemo or Mer will lead the way---or some fork of them. But eventually, I imagine you'll have a lot of people working to install fully-functional Linux distros on handhelds.

Maemo's place in all this seems unclear to me. Perhaps #3. Or perhaps high end Nokia products that occupy a similar niche as the iPhone. Or perhaps Nokia is still big enough internationally to turn Maemo into a genuine competitor for Android. Who knows.

I just realize that my scenario above is exactly the same that has existed in the desktop world, except that Android replaces Windows.