Interesting view...

In my opinion, the iPhone was probably the one to hit first, and that gives it a pretty good advantage. At this stage, even with the improvements in Android 2 and Maemo 5, I think both are far from the iPhone in terms of how easy and intuitive its GUI is, and I think people appreciate and value that in a phone much more than in a computer.

However, I am not sure I agree about sharing marketshare. I think Mac OS, Unix, Windows and even Linux were born in an era when things moved slower. Macintosh had time to convince many users about its advantages over its competitors and specially in the US, even had many users who started using Macs for their personal computing. What I am trying to say is that back then, many people had the time to get used to certain OS, and when Windows took over, they were not willing to give up on their initial choice.

When it comes to handheld devices, things have moved so quickly that I don´t think anybody will stick to any choice, as they are all almost offering the same thing. Most options fall within very similar price ranges, offer similar performance features and even the interfaces are incredibly similar. In other words, whatever sentimental reasons were there for Mac to keep its niche in the computer world, don´t apply this time around, I think.

I think this time around functionality and marketing will decide who wins. In terms of applications, integration with the cloud and many more leading projects out there and coming, Google is the contender to beat.

The good news is that Android is much better than windows in its foundation and semi-open characteristics.