Your forgetting about the things that each company does and offers though. Android's benefit is that it can run on almost anything but there is no unified experience. Applications written for Android are generally written for the mass level thus they may not use your device's hardware to its fully extent. While devices like the iPhone or n900 will (plus Apple has its marketing department which can blind almost everyone but those who know deeply about technology). That's the reason why Verizon is attacking the iPhone through catchy advertisements.

For Maemo, it's the aspect of it being open and being able to do whatever you want without having to load custom ROMs or hack the device for root access. Now of course for most people this won't matter, but in that case they're more likely to get an iPhone than Android due to the tied usability and interface between Apple's hardware and Apple's OS. In fact some of the initial reactions to Droid's marketing is "I never used that [multitasking] or why do I care about open development".

Like I said, I have no doubts that Android will be the one with the most marketshare, but I still think there will be an Apple marketshare and some other marketshare (whether it's Nokia with Maemo who knows). But Apple is for certain simply based on the way they create and market products. That is as long as Steve Jobs is alive (though I'm hoping that Apple learned from their mistake the last time Jobs left and the company almost collapsed by having understudies study Jobs).