1) Android will dominate. It will be installed on a variety of "generic" hardware, just as Windows was installed on every conceivable PC in the 90s. IMO, Android is going to eat up Symbian's market share. 2) Apple will continue to cater to a market that likes highly polished products and tight hardware/software integration. Except that that market is larger now than it was in the 90s. 3) Mobile Linux OSs for hackers will thrive as a geek phenomenon. Perhaps Maemo or Mer will lead the way---or some fork of them. But eventually, I imagine you'll have a lot of people working to install fully-functional Linux distros on handhelds. Maemo's place in all this seems unclear to me. Perhaps #3. Or perhaps high end Nokia products that occupy a similar niche as the iPhone. Or perhaps Nokia is still big enough internationally to turn Maemo into a genuine competitor for Android. Who knows. I just realize that my scenario above is exactly the same that has existed in the desktop world, except that Android replaces Windows.