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Posts: 203 | Thanked: 68 times | Joined on Oct 2009
#21
Originally Posted by mikec View Post
They did total revenues of $36.27B of which 6.7B was iPhone and iPhone related (assume includes app store sales). This represents 18% of total sales.
Where did you get this number since Apple doesn't breakdown revenues by the product, I thought? If they did, Strategy Analytics wouldn't have to do its estimate.

Originally Posted by mikec View Post
Assuming linear relationship with the full year numbers (and yes I know iphone growth was high in FYQ4) then iphone sales for FYQ4 should be closer to $1.76B and Operating income at $394M.
I just don't see why one should assume a linear relationship with the full year numbers. Apple iPhone sales skyrocketed in the September quarter. They sold 7.4 million iPhones. In the previous quarter they sold 5.2 million iPhones. And in the quarter before that, they sold 3.8 million iPhones. So as soon as you assume a linear relationship with the full years numbers, your calculation becomes completely disconnected from what happened in the September quarter.

Strategy Analytics was only making a claim about the last quarter. Averaging back over the whole year effectively effaces the point of what happened in the last quarter. Once a linear relationship is assumed, then the numbers really are made up.

Look, here's a story explaining that Apple probably has an almost 60% profit margin on the iPhone: http://venturebeat.com/2009/07/29/at...to-60-percent/. Other stories over the years have been done making the same point (e.g. http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...eater_than_50_). The iPhone is the most profitable thing Apple sells. Is it so hard to believe that it accounts for a huge portion of Apple's profits?

Last edited by cb474; 2009-11-11 at 14:24.