When the iPhone costs less than $185 per device to produce, and they get an instant $450 from at&t, plus parts of the phone plan revenues, iTunes sales, and App Store profits, you're talking about a ARPU of $200+ quite easily after R&D and marketing. I don't see what you're missing, unless you're not from the US, where 40% of all iPhones are sold.

Nokia has a more diversified portfolio of devices, ranging in price from $30-$1200. They are strongest in emerging markets where ARPU is lower, unit prices are lower, and unlimited data plans are less common. Its simple math.

Then you need to catch up with the times. The iPhone saved Apple. They'll never command more then 15% of the PC market, no matter what they do. The iPod business has declined, and will probably be discontinued soon. Mobile is the center of the technology planet at the moment. Cellphones have surpassed PCs for the largest installed base. This isn't the future, mobile is NOW!

Strategy Analytics studies are nothing near guesswork! They are the most respected industry analysis firms out there. I have the priviledge of reading many of their studies through a friend's access, since these studies cost $3k-$12k EACH! They get figures from the manufacturers, supply chains, retailers, and other sources to bring the most accurate information available. I wouldn't be surprised if Nokia and Apple each were clients.

Maemo won't be left in the dust by Android. Maemo isn't even on the same highway. Maemo is for high end portable desktop applications. Android competes with Symbian, not Maemo.

Something lost in all of this is how unsound Apple's iPhone business position really is. Apple to too heavily hedged in the US with 40% of its sales in America. They are also heavily hedged in the high end. We've seen what an economic turndown can do to high end real estate. The same could happen to Apple once their midrange pricing advantage via subsidy ends, and people are less willing to spend $350 on an iPhone on contract.

Also, look at where their revenues come from. App sales, music sales, and device sales. Apple is afraid of adding Flash to the iPhone browser because it leaves a void to be filled by apps. Soon it will be seen as a disadvantage, especially once everyone else has Flash 10 on device.

Web based apps and services are the future, as Tomi Ahonen and other visionaries have continuously reminded us. Whoever has the best web browser on device has a better chance of surviving any OS battle in the marketplace. Supporting the most popular services is just as important, and supporting services other than those you own or promote will only make the offering more attractive. Apple can't continue to rest on its music store laurels, with Amazon, Google, and Nokia coming to play as well, and Last.FM, Pandora, and other streaming services getting more popular every day.

Nokia's strategy has allowed it to remain profitable while holding parts of every market pricing bracket. It is situated to survive downturns to the low, mid, and high ends. Try that, Apple. Take a look at BMW and Mercedes. They're both companies only positioned in the high end, making profits of scale hard to see. Meanwhile, Audi, Caddillac, Lexus, Infinity, and Lincoln have good futures ahead because of the mass market partners there to cover them in times of loss. So the same with RIM and Nokia, who have diversified their device portfolios to weather economic storms and appeal to more people. I'd rather be RIM or Nokia than Apple in this regard.