I think you are right for this year. However, as processor power increases it becomes more and more feasible to run full browsers on a smartphone. At that point, it could become a Safari vs. Chrome vs. Firefox battle. The first smartphone that can implement this will take the lead (and I have high hopes for the N1000/Maemo 6 platform). Still, Google doesn't care. As long as the smartphones are ending up at a Google web app, they make their advertising money. Android is just a strategy to force the smartphone market to make working in the cloud an expected feature of all smartphones.