It depends. What Access has, er, access to, is PalmOS Garnet (i.e. PalmOS 5.1.2 and newer), AND also PalmOS Cobalt (aka PalmOS6) which was never sold with any devices but at least demoed on some. Palm has only Garnet, so I can't see that Palm is in a better position than Access as far as PalmOS is concerned. But then again Access may be focusing more on the Asian phone market. On the other hand (running out of hands now..) Palm seems to be all-Treo now anyway, there's no new PDA coming out anytime soon afaik.

I agree with your predictions btw!