About 2-4 years and then it´s used only by couple of hard geeks who make amazing things with their device. Meantime big group of potential customers go somewhere else because majority of customer want results right now not in near misty future which is filled with questions.

Forks will make things democratic and nice but it doesn't help a lot doing business and money. Open source is nice ADDITION but it will not alone make things successful. To make device successful you have to LEAD and show way by making core OS as good as possible.