For the purposes of this thread, "Linux" can refer to any distribution, or all distributions for the average PC user. This is not about servers; Linux already has a strong hold there..

1. Do you think Linux will ever become a major contender in the OS market? i.e. People in general will seriously consider whether to buy a PC with Windows or Linux?

2. If so, when do you think it will?

3. What are the main obstacles?

4. (Purely theoretical) What distribution (from the current set) do you think will come out on top, if any?

I just want to expand on maemo-freak.com's poll, and see what the mindset of this community is. You're encouraged to answer no matter what your computer experience is.

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My personal answers:

1. Yes, Windows' reputation is being rapidly tarnished by the youth population. People will begin to look for alternatives, and as Macs are relatively expensive in comparison to the average PC, Linux will become their preference, if they find it.

2. With the current momentum (esp. Chrome OS; even if it isn't anything special in itself, it will draw attention), I would predict it will be past 10-20% of PC users by 2012.

3. Installing. Many people will want to try Linux once they find it, but the process of installing it can be tedious for most end-users, especially in a multiple boot scenario. Burn your disks, backup, install Windows first, then Linux, restore your files, reinstall all drivers for Windows. People just won't venture into changing OSes until most of it is simplified or automated.

EDIT: This is mainly applies only for avid end-users. People with things to do on the computer, but not necessarily power-users. People like my parents, and little cousins, who could care less about what operating system they use, as long as there's a web browser and decent compatibility for said browser, would make the change easily, as they don't need a multiple-boot, or extensive backups.

4. People usually turn to Ubuntu (and variants) first, then they explore their other options. I'm not quite sure if it will stay that way.