Okay, "good chances"...

What kind of warranty have we that someone from nokia will compile and package modest, our EMail application? Or a new event logger Database (Bug #7512) with a tool to migrate the existing data?
Or the Ovi Maps? What about the Media Player? The Bluetooth stack? Image application? Task handling at the Calendar? Flash 10.1?

We can't do it! We haven't the source.

Should we hope now for another 9 months and in the end we got: "we want to provide the best user experience to our customers - our new adressbook will only run on the new Maemo6/Meego1.0/Harmattan Device well enought"

There are also good chances to complie MeeGo for N900 and create a UI that works on booth devices. At multitouch and resistive screens without multitouch. (you need it anyway, not everyone want to buy a inaccurate capacitive screen)