1. iPhone and Android is neck to neck in terms of worldwide marketshare. Judging by the rate of adoption, Android is going to overtake iPhone for good once iPhone 4 fever is over.
By 'popularity' and 'mindshare', iPhone may still lead for a longer period of time.

2. The late comer usually has the advantage of learning from its predecessor's mistake... and they don't have the 'backward compatibility' baggage that their opponents (with significant existing userbases) have, so they're more free to incorporate new designs into their platform.

How will MeeGo pull it off? I'm hoping Intel will modularize and commoditize the handheld market... but I don't think anyone else (beside Intel) wants that to happen.