It's still very early in the mobile device market. Right now, we're probably at about the point in mobiles that PCs were at when early Macs were the cool thing to have and M$ was about to release Windoze 3.1 to try and compete. Only now it's iPhone vs WinMo 7 (with Android, Symbian, etc. complicating the scene). And we know who won the desktop OS war. So anything could still happen.

MeeGo can do it, no question. It will be the most powerful, capable mobile OS available. But it will have to:
a. Get full support from not only Nokia, but other manufacturers, like Android has.
b. Get supported by wireless carriers. Ordinary people want and need customer support for their device.
c. The hardware for the first units must be killer! Because poor hardware will kill it.
d. The entire MeeGo package offered - market,, UI, services, basic software (email, browser, bluetooth, etc.) must be right from the beginning. IOW, all the basic stuff users coming from other brands expect has to just work.

If there's failure in any of these areas, the MeeGo forum, like this one, will get bombarded with users pissed because (insert complaint about MMS, email, ringtones or whatever here) on their previous (insert iPhone, Nexus One, E71 or whatever here) worked or worked better.

It's just a friggin' shame that custom ringtones are more important to so many users than an entire concept like MeeGo. But, people are stupid...