I'm voting 6 months / end of 2011.

Why? Nokia killed it. Released it, then shortly after, pulled support in favor of MeeGo. Sure there were still some folks working on it, but for what they were, PR1.2 and PR1.3 shouldn't have taken so long. Nokia is sharing proprietary information with commercial developers that is enough to convince them to stop developing for Maemo (and even MeeGo). MeeGo likely won't get ported in a day-to-day usable fashion.

Community support will continue for quite some time, with minimal community support after MeeGo hardware is released (2nd half of 2011?). Although, potentially, MeeGo has (IMHO) a good chance at failing (or failing to become mainstream, which amounts to about the same thing). If that happened, community support would be around for a longer time.

Doesn't mean it won't be useful for the next several years, provided care is taken with the usb port, the older it gets the more likely it is to come off. I'll still likely be using for at least the next year (only cause I'm cheap). As long as it continues to do what I need it to, it won't get replaced very quickly.